top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Plastics Deconstructed: The Big Five and the Seven Codes

While nearly all plastics are made from fossil fuels, their differences become clear only when we look at the seven RIC codes.

Dear Reader, it feels nice to take a journey down the ‘history lane’, and that is what I did over the past three weeks. In the first part, we began with Abeer’s vivid and haunting dream—a child’s gentle warning about the sorrow of our oceans.


In the second part, we traced plastics from their origins to their surprising rise as everyday companions in our homes. And in the third part, we explored how human ingenuity, driven by necessity and innovation, ushered in a new era of synthetic materials that transformed modern manufacturing.


So far, so good. Now, let us return to the present scenario and understand how this ‘wonder material’ is making life miserable not only for us humans but for all living beings on the planet. But before that, it will be worthwhile to learn the basics about plastics.


The big five

Almost 99% of plastics are made from fossil fuels. On the basis of composition, there are many different types of plastic. But practically almost 90% of all the plastics produced are of five major types, which are as follows:


Polyethylene (PE) accounts for 34.4% of global plastic production, followed by polypropylene (PP) at 24.2%, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) at 16.5%, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) at 7.7%, and polystyrene (PS) at 7.3%. Ethylene is a critical feedstock for the production of polyethylene, PVC, PET, and polystyrene—together representing about 65% of all plastics made by weight. Propylene, likewise, is the main raw material used to produce polypropylene.


Taken together, this means that most of the world’s plastics can be traced back to the product streams of just two industrial chemicals: ethylene and propylene. While not all fossil fuels are turned into plastic, virtually all plastics are derived from fossil fuels. This is further reinforced by the fact that the biggest companies in both sectors are integrated giants that produce fossil fuels as well as plastics.


Another key input, naphtha, comes directly from oil refining, and its production is concentrated among major oil companies with large refining capacities. If current trends in oil use and plastic manufacturing continue, plastics alone are projected to consume 20% of all oil produced by 2050. Understanding these industrial linkages is essential for addressing the global plastic pollution crisis and recognising the role that corporate actors play in driving it.


Plastics around us

Let us now take a closer look at the plastics we encounter in our daily lives. Plastics come in an astonishing range of shapes, sizes, and colours, and each variety serves a different purpose. To make sense of this diversity, they are grouped into specific categories based on their chemical composition, properties, and intended use.


For instance, certain types of plastic are sturdy and safe enough to be reused multiple times, while others are designed for single use because of the chemicals or additives they contain. Similarly, some plastics can be easily recycled and turned into new products, whereas others require careful handling and must be discarded in specialised ways.


RIC System: 7 Numbers

To make informed choices about the products we use every day, it is important to understand the different types of plastics, how they differ from one another, and the impact each type has on the environment. Plastics are broadly classified into seven major categories under the Resin Identification Code (RIC) system, with each type assigned a number from 1 to 7.


This number is usually printed or embossed on the product, placed inside a small triangle made of chasing arrows—something we often overlook. The next time you buy a bottle of drinking water, just turn it over and look at the base. You will notice the number 1 stamped inside that triangle, quietly telling you what kind of plastic the bottle is made of.


Curious to know what these numbers mean and how they guide recycling and disposal? Hold on to that curiosity until next Saturday. Untill then, have a wonderful weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page