Pyrrhic Peace
The uncomfortable conclusion emerging from Donald Trump’s understanding with Iran is that while wars are expensive, failed wars are even more so.
After months of military confrontation, repeated threats of escalation and lofty declarations about reshaping the Middle East, Washington appears poised to offer Tehran a package of sanctions relief, restored oil revenues, access to frozen assets and reconstruction assistance that could eventually amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. If this is the peace package, an obvious question uppermost in everyone’s minds is what was the war for?
The Trump administration’s defenders insist that the Memorandum of Understanding is merely a framework and that tougher concessions will be extracted in the final negotiations. This is a hard-sell and something harder to swallow. It smacks of the utter failure of Trump’s monumental gamble to destabilize Iran and control the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has repeatedly portrayed Iran as the principal source of instability in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic’s missile arsenal has been repeatedly condemned. Its drone programme was described as a threat to regional security. At various points, the U.S. administration even framed its actions as a defence of the Iranian people against an oppressive regime. Yet none of those ambitions appear reflected in the emerging deal.
Iran’s proxy network remains intact and there is little indication that Tehran’s missile or drone capabilities will be dismantled. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains the dominant force in Iranian politics and economics. Most strikingly, the regime itself remains firmly in control. Thus, it is Tehran emerges with a plausible claim to success.
If sanctions are substantially lifted, Iran will gain access to resources it has lacked for years. In effect, a state that was supposed to be weakened could now emerge economically strengthened.
It is unclear why Washington is negotiating from such generosity. The administration argues that economic incentives are necessary to secure Iranian compliance. In this case, the incentives are substantial but the gains remains highly uncertain.
Thousands of Iranians reportedly died during recent unrest and the subsequent crackdown. Political repression continues unabated. Yet there is little indication that sanctions relief or reconstruction funding will be conditioned upon meaningful reforms.
The deeper problem is strategic. If vast sums flow into Iran without structural reform, much of the benefit will inevitably pass through institutions linked to the Revolutionary Guards and the state apparatus. Far from moderating the regime, such an arrangement may entrench it.
Trump likes to present himself as a master dealmaker. Great deals, however, require leverage. America fought to obtain leverage, only to spend it on terms that fall conspicuously short of its stated objectives.
If Iran retains its proxies, preserves its missiles, keeps its regime and merely agrees to discuss its nuclear programme under more favourable economic conditions, then the simple question is after all the threats, the destruction and the rhetoric, what exactly did America win?



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