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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Rohit Pawar's SOS to PM, Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi

Mumbai: Nationalist Congress Party (SP) MLA Rohit R. Pawar alleged that the VSR Ventures Pvt. Ltd. had high political and business connections, some linked with state governments or aligned with the ruling party at the centre who were attempting to divert the probe into the Jan. 28 Baramati air-crash ostensibly to protect the company.

In another hard-hitting media-presentation, Rohit Pawar spoke of a “high-level political and commercial conspiracy” behind the air tragedy that killed five persons, including his uncle, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) President and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit A. Pawar last month.

 

The Karjat-Jamkhed lawmaker claimed that conducting deep study after his earlier presentation in Mumbai, his team found “the threats of VSRVPL led to very influential people”.

 

“Moreover, the company is backed by some big leaders in power and prominent industrialists, among its lenders are persons with direct connections to the Telugu Desam Party and others,” alleged Rohit Pawar.

 

Pointing fingers at the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), he said that many of its former officials could also be involved and such a scale of hold by the VSRVPL suggested the possibility of “an international-level of political or commercial plot”.

 

“The people involved seem to be extremely big… Only Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah can take personal charge to ensure justice for Ajit Pawar. I plan to meet and submit a letter to them on this,” said Rohit Pawar.

 

Simultaneously, he urged Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi to intervene in the matter, plus support the demand for the resignation of Minister of Civil Aviation K. Rammohan Naidu, at least till the probe is completed, asking why the Minister allegedly cleared the operator of any culpability soon after the disaster.

 

Rohit Pawar reiterated his suspicions on other irregularities surrounding the crash of the Bombardier Learjet 45, registered as VT-SSK, on the Black Box which was retrieved earlier this week.

 

“When the DGCA rules mandate a two-hour recording capability, why did this aircraft’s Cockpit Voice Recorder have a capacity of only 30 minutes recording? If the aircraft was worth some Rs 35 cr. how come it was insured for Rs 210 cr. and the pilot was covered for Rs 50 cr.,” demanded Rohit Pawar.

 

He raised the possibility of the pilot suffering from mental and financial stress as he had been jobless for four years after leaving the defunct Jet Airways where he earned around Rs 10-12 lakhs per month, but at VSRVPL, his pay was barely 25-30 percent.

 

Rohit Pawar asked whether the concerned flight safety manager had been probed or booked as the Learjet 45 was being operated ‘illegally’ without a proper license and it was earlier banned in Europe.

 

Rohit Pawar roasts political trolls

Taking strong umbrage to the social media trolling of his exposes on the Baramati air-crash, NCP (SP) MLA Rohit Pawar pointedly alleged: “Though we know they represent the BJP, who is paying them?” - during his New Delhi presentation, vowing not to rest till justice is done.

 

“If the BJP trolls oppose our demand for a thorough probe, is the party involved in it? We seek information through RTI and get nothing, but the trolls seem to get it from the authorities. Is it an attempt to scare us,” he wondered.

 

 


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