The Arakan Army: India’s Strategic Ally?

As Bangladesh grapples with economic challenges and rising radicalism, a new crisis along its Myanmar border is contributing to the chaos. The Arakan Army, a formidable ethnic insurgent group from Myanmar, had recently mounted a significant incursion into Bangladesh’s southern regions, allegedly capturing areas along the border. While the development has alarmed Dhaka, it raises questions about whether this is a fortuitous development or a carefully calculated strategy by India to manage instability in its eastern neighbourhood.

Bangladesh’s internal situation has been deteriorating rapidly ever since the toppling of Sheikh Hasina’s government, which was well-disposed towards India. Economic woes, violent atrocities against minorities, and the radical hostility of Islamist groups — particularly those allegedly aligned with Jamaat-e-Islami and Al-Qaeda — have created a toxic mix. The situation is exacerbated by the leadership of Muhammad Yunus, whose policies are viewed as fostering Islamist sentiments. This environment not only destabilizes Bangladesh but poses a direct threat to India, especially in its border states.

Enter the Arakan Army, an insurgent group that has been steadily gaining ground in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. With its control over vast stretches of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, the Arakan Army’s rise could serve India’s strategic interests in neutralizing the threats emanating from an increasingly unstable Bangladesh. Reports suggest the Arakan Army has declared its opposition to jihadist groups operating in the region, accusing them of atrocities against Buddhists and Hindus and collusion with international terror networks.

This aligns well with India’s broader security concerns. By supporting or tacitly enabling the Arakan Army’s operations, India could achieve multiple objectives, namely curtailing Islamist extremism.

The Arakan Army’s campaign could weaken the influence of radical groups such as the Rohingya Solidarity Army and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, which are reportedly using Bangladeshi soil as a base for operations against India. By bolstering the Arakan Army’s control over the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, India could create a buffer zone that reduces the spillover of jihadist violence into its territory.

A destabilized Bangladesh under Yunus’s leadership makes it harder for India to maintain regional stability. The Arakan Army’s presence could give India leverage to counterbalance any anti-India policies emanating from Dhaka.

Speculation is rife about whether India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, known for his unconventional strategies, is behind this development. India has long maintained strategic ties with various ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, including the Arakan Army. Given the current geopolitical scenario, it would not be surprising if India were providing covert support—logistical or intelligence—to the Arakan Army as part of a larger game plan to safeguard its eastern flank.

Doval’s focus has often been on pre-emptively neutralizing threats rather than reacting to them. Supporting the Arakan Army fits this modus operandi. It allows India to weaken Islamist networks without direct intervention, keeping its hands ostensibly clean while achieving strategic goals.

The Rakhine region, where the Arakan Army has established dominance, holds immense strategic importance. It not only serves as a corridor for China’s Belt and Road Initiative but also impacts India’s connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. A weakened Myanmar military and a strengthened Arakan Army could give India greater access and influence in the region, countering Chinese designs.

If Ajit Doval’s fingerprints are indeed on this development, it could go down as one of his most effective manoeuvres — a masterstroke in securing India’s eastern frontier while subtly reshaping the geopolitical balance in South Asia.