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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

The Badlapur Horror Story

Updated: Oct 21, 2024


The Badlapur Horror Story

The protest in Badlapur on Tuesday, sparked by the sexual abuse of two minor girls, was not politically motivated but reflected the community’s deep frustration and anger. It demonstrated how ordinary citizens act when law enforcement fails. Understanding the sequence of events is crucial before making assumptions about the protest’s causes.

Adarsh Vidya Mandir is a well-known school in Badlapur East, with its students making it to the merit list in recent years. Tushar Apte and his brother, both affiliated with the BJP, serve as the school’s directors.

In Lalita Kumari v. Union of India, the Supreme Court ruled that an investigation should follow the registration of a case. However, no case was filed in this instance, which was unacceptable. Despite the requirement under Section 27 of the POCSO Act for medical treatment before filing a case, the police deliberately delayed the girls’ medical care by ten hours after filing.

It is the responsibility of the police to safeguard the public while enforcing the law, but many fail to do so. Senior Police Inspector Shubhada Shitole, despite being a woman, caused an unacceptably long delay in the case. This mishandling led to the community’s frustration. The Badlapur residents might not have taken to the streets if Shitole and her station had not appeared to support the accused and politicians.

School administrators are required to maintain a log of faculty conduct every three months and ensure teachers interact positively with students. Children should also be taught about “Bad touch and Good touch” by both parents and teachers. However, it seems the institution is neglecting these measures for profit. When schools threaten to exclude parents from reporting sexual abuse, the education department should investigate and take prompt action against such establishments.

In the Badlapur case, the government announced a fast-track trial. However, how many cases have been trial in fast-track courts, and how long did it take for the findings? The government should make these numbers public so that people are aware of the resolution times for such cases.


Let’s examine the sequence of events in this incident

13th August: A four-year-old girl complained of genital soreness to her parents. She informed them that the uncle, a sweeper at the school, had misbehaved with her when she went to use the school washroom. Her parents immediately took her to the doctor for a medical examination.

14th August: The child’s parents visited the school and informed the principal and the class teacher about their daughter’s experience. However, both attempted to avoid accountability by claiming the incident did not occur there. The sanitation worker, Akshay Shinde, rejected the parent’s claim as well. According to another parent, a friend of the four-year-old girl, who is three years and ten months old, had not attended school for the previous eight days due to a similar experience. Despite informing the school administration, the management ignored the situation and threatened the parents, who received calls instructing them not to contact the police.

15th August: CM Eknath Shinde travelled to Badlapur to attend the Varsha Marathon function, but attempts were made to keep him in the dark about the incident.

16th August: In the morning, the girl’s parents reported the incident to Senior Inspector Shubhada Shitole at Badlapur East police station. Despite her efforts to downplay the situation, journalist Mohini Jadhav and a child protection officer arrived at the station. Shitole then visited Adarsh School for inquiries. Back at the station, she tried again to persuade the parents not to file a formal complaint, but they refused. The case was recorded at 11:30 pm, and the girls were taken to a government hospital in Ulhasnagar for medical attention in the middle of the night, with their examinations occurring ten hours later.

17th August: Even though the school claimed that the incident did not occur on their premises, the police took Akshay Shinde into custody. Efforts were made to keep the issue quiet, however, it was publicised through social media

18th August: The Badlapur police began knocking on the doors of the social media users who publicised the incident in a bid to get them to back down

19th August: A few irate Badlapur residents called for a demonstration in front of the school.

20th August: At nine in the morning, furious Badlapurkars vandalised the school and attempted to disrupt the train schedule by occupying the rail tracks. The protest lacked political leadership and was a spontaneous outburst from the community.

The writer is a practicing lawyer. Views personal

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