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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

The Cost of Carrying People: When Compassion Becomes Unsustainable

The real test of leadership isn’t how long you carry people. It’s how well they move when you finally put them down

Some leaders don’t burn out from pressure. They burn out from carrying what no one else will name.


Rohit didn’t collapse. He just… paused. It was 11:42 PM on a Thursday.The monthly review deck blinked blank. Slack was quiet. And yet, he sat there stuck.


Not from indecision. But from invisible weight. The culture he had built of warm, proud, “like a family” now felt more like a staged performance no one wanted to exit.


The company wasn’t broken. But the emotional weight was uneven. And Rohit, founder and emotional shock-absorber, was finally buckling.

 

The invisible promotion

People still called him a “great boss”. He had their trust. Their thanks. Their secrets.


But somewhere along the way, Rohit had stopped being the founder and become the accidental manager of everyone’s emotions.


He was no longer just running the business. He was running reassurance loops.


Checking in when others should’ve checked themselves. Absorbing tension before it surfaced. Holding silence so no one had to voice discomfort.


He called it empathy.


But it was fear: fear of breaking the fragile loyalty that success had outgrown. Until even gratitude started to feel like guilt.


The mirror moment

An old friend, Dev, dropped by one evening. They spoke like old colleagues do … chai, nostalgia, half-truths. Rohit didn’t vent. He recounted.


The drift. The niceness. The exhaustion. The weight.


Dev listened, then asked: “When was the last time someone held you accountable?”


Rohit smirked. “Founders don’t get that luxury.”


Dev nodded. “Maybe. But that doesn’t mean you carry this alone.” He told Rohit about Rahul and Rashmi. Not as consultants. As clarity catalysts.


“They don’t give you answers,” he said. “They ask questions that make you flinch and then walk with you as you unlearn.” Rohit hesitated. Then reached out.

 

Not a fix. A beginning

No PowerPoints. No frameworks. No prescriptions. Just questions. Why can’t you delegate without guilt? When did “family” become a crutch? Why are you cushioning people you’ve quietly outgrown?


It wasn’t therapy. It wasn’t coaching. It was reflection … with edges.


That’s when it hit him:


This wasn’t about being a bad leader. This was about being an untrained one. Built by instinct. Frozen by care.


“You built something beautiful,” Rahul had said.

“But beauty can become a cage when it doesn’t evolve.”

“You don’t need to carry people,” Rashmi added.

“You need to rebalance the weight.”


And just like that, something cracked open.


Saying it out loud

That Friday, Rohit spoke to Meera. “I made you a manager too soon,” he said. “I gave you the title. Not the tools.”


Meera nodded. Tired. Grateful. “I didn’t know how to say no without sounding disloyal.” And in that quiet, they finally named it: the people paradox wasn’t about bad talent. It was about truth… and the cost of avoiding it.


Asha’s new role

Then came the hardest part. Asha. Their first ops lead. Beloved. Loyal. Lost. She hadn’t failed. But the company had outgrown her role. Firing her felt cruel. Protecting her felt dishonest. “What if she could still matter … just differently?” Meera asked.


They sketched a pilot.


Asha would mentor interns. Curate onboarding rituals. Become a culture steward, not an operational bottleneck. No promises. Just a path.

 

Rebalancing the weight

The next team meeting was quiet. Rohit didn’t posture. He shared. “I built this like a family. But sometimes, families trap us in history. I want us to evolve together.”


Meera restructured the 1:1s. Asha began her new pilot. And the team? They exhaled.


Because even high-functioning teams get tired of pretending. This one had finally stopped.

 

Closing the series: The real cost

Did they fix everything? Of course not. Culture doesn’t reboot overnight. Asha’s path is still unfolding. So is Rohit’s. But the silence has cracked.

The drift has a name. The weight is finally being shared. The real test of leadership isn’t how long you carry people. It’s how well they move when you finally put them down.


(Rahul Kulkarni is Co-founder at PPS Consulting. He writes about the human mechanics of growth  where systems evolve, and emotions learn to keep up. Views personal. Write to rahul@ppsconsulting.biz)

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