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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

The Culture Mirage: When Warmth Hides What Hurts

“A kind culture without clear rules is just avoidance with better manners.”

Every Friday at The Workshop, the town hall ended the same way: smiles, a joke, a round of claps that sounded honest enough to keep the week stitched together.


Questions were “welcomed,” though few were asked. Surveys said engagement was high. New hire videos looked happy. On paper, culture was working. And yet … people were tired. Not from work, but from what wasn’t said.


Meera, the recently promoted team lead we met last week, had learned the new choreography: soften the truth, cushion the ask, round the corners. She wasn’t lying; she was being “nice.” But each kindness postponed a conversation. Each postponed conversation became a quiet tax on the whole company.


That’s the Culture Mirage: when visible warmth and surface harmony mask the real frictions underneath. It feels good. It looks good. It slowly breaks execution.


How a Mirage Forms

Mirages form in heat. So do these.


Nostalgia Heat: A team tries to preserve the old “we’re family” feeling long after the work has changed shape. Warmth becomes a ritual. Accountability becomes optional.

(Part 1 traced how the “family” metaphor stopped fitting modern belonging.)


Promotion Heat: First-time managers (and founders themselves) avoid clean feedback because authority still feels new on their tongue. (Part 2 showed how competence outruns capability when the system doesn’t train the new layer.)


Metric Heat: eNPS(employee Net Promotor Score survey) scoreis up, emoji reactions bloom, but cycle time stalls and handoffs wobble. Sentiment wins the slide; delivery loses the week. No one is faking. Everyone is coping.


Rituals Without Rules

At The Workshop, the team had rituals standups, town halls, retrospectives. But rituals without rules become theatre.

  • Standups drifted into status monologues.

  • Retrospectives turned into gratitude circles.

  • “Open door” became “open loop” where issues floated in, decisions never landed.


In that gap, polite sentences did the work clear sentences should have done.


The Niceness Inflation

When clarity is scarce, niceness gets louder. People over-thank, over-explain, over-emoji. Critique is wrapped so carefully it arrives as a compliment. Underperformance is managed through “support,” not standards. In time, a new equation emerges:

Belonging = harmony – honesty.

And yet the real equation that sustains scale is the opposite:

Belonging = safety + truth.

(Safety to speak; truth about expectations.)


The Human Moment

One Friday, after the applause, a young engineer stopped by Meera’s desk. “Am I doing okay?” he asked. “Everyone says yes. My tasks keep coming back with ‘small tweaks.’ I don’t know what good means here.”

Not I’m unhappy. Not I’m overworked.

I don’t know what good means here.

That’s the sentence every Culture Mirage produces.


The Reframe

Culture isn’t what happens at the town hall. It’s what happens between town halls.

  • Warmth without rules becomes avoidance.

  • Rules without warmth becomes fear.

  • Warmth + rulesbecomes trust.

Design the rules. Protect the warmth.


What Breaks the Mirage

Three visible moves, done consistently:

1. Define “what good looks like.” Not a poster but examples. Before/after screenshots. Acceptable ranges. A public “definition of done.”


2. Install a rhythm that carries truth. Short, factual review loops (weekly 1:1s; project midpoints) where evidence precedes emotion.


3. Rename rituals to refresh intent. If “town hall” means performance, call it “decision review.” If “retro” means gratitude, add “one fix per theme” as rule.

None of this is anti-warmth. It’s pro-clarity.


Quiet Reflection

The Culture Mirage doesn’t form because people stopped caring.

It forms because caring replaced clarity. The Workshop didn’t need a tougher tone. It needed visible rules so kindness could do its real job: make truth easier to carry.

Next week, the mirage meets its hardest test of The Talent Mismatchwhen early loyalists and new professionals collide, and the company must choose between history and fit.


(Rahul Kulkarni is Co-founder at PPS Consulting. He helps growth-stage leaders design systems where people and performance evolve together. Views personal.)

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