top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

The Tai of Bastar

In the remote forests of Bastar, Sunita Godbole has spent over 35 years building trust improving health and education, and empowering tribal communities.

Earlier this year, Sunita Godbole was conferred the prestigious Padma Shri, a recognition of her tireless work in the heart of Bastar. For over 35 years, she has been a silent force for change in Dantewada, where tribal communities affectionately call her ‘Tai’ — elder sister. Her journey is a remarkable story of grit, empathy and lifelong service.


Born on 25 April 1950 as Sunita Puranik in Pune, she was drawn early towards addressing social issues. She pursued a Master of Social Work and, in her early years, worked with the ABVP. But her path changed when she met Nandatai Deshpande, one of the founders of the Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram. That meeting sparked a lifelong commitment to tribal welfare.


In 1984, she began as a full-time worker in Jambhiwali in Raigad district. Those three years near Karjat strengthened her conviction that her future lay in the country’s most remote corners.


When Sunita decided to marry, she sought a partner who shared her vision. She found one in Dr Ramchandra Godbole, an Ayurvedic physician. Their marriage was less a conventional union than a pact of service. Just six days after their wedding, the couple left for Bastar and settled in the Barsur area of Dantewada, a region marked by poverty and isolation.


Winning Trust

The challenges were immense. Tribal communities were shy and wary of outsiders, and language was the first barrier. Sunita chose not to depend on translators. Instead, she learnt Halbi and Gondi, carrying a diary to note down new words. Simple expressions became bridges of trust, helping her connect deeply with women in the community.


Her work took a holistic shape. While her husband reopened a defunct clinic, Sunita worked in the field, addressing healthcare, education and malnutrition together. She helped establish a girls’ hostel in Bastar and served on the Child Rights Protection Committee. Her effort was never just about aid but about building self-respect.


One of her major achievements was the MAAS scheme, aimed at tackling malnutrition and anaemia among tribal children. She also addressed superstition with sensitivity, never attacking traditional faith healers but working through them to spread health awareness. That respectful approach won the confidence of the community.


Silent Service

Even during the shadow of Naxalism in the 1990s, the Godboles rarely faced direct threats. Sunita says they consciously avoided claiming credit, focusing instead on nurturing local tribal leadership. For her, restoring dignity and self-respect was the key to lasting change.


Over the years, she has trained hundreds of tribal girls to lead health initiatives, helping expand work across eight sub-centres. At 75, her passion remains undimmed. She still notes down new tribal words in her diary, convinced that the next generation must carry technology into these remote forests.


Her Padma Shri may have brought national recognition, but in Bastar, Sunita Godbole has long held a greater title.

Comments

bottom of page