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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Tiger’s Expanding Shadow

Mumbai: In the unforgiving theater of the state politics, symbolism is often the precursor to a tectonic shift. By masterminding the unexpected move to field Shiv Sena (UBT) MLC Sachin Ahir for the coveted post of Deputy Chairman of the Maharashtra Legislative Council, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has done much more than simply poach a high-profile rival. He has sent an unequivocal message across the political spectrum: ‘Operation Tiger’ is far from over.


This aggressive expansion drive, initially aimed at consolidating Members of Parliament, is now systematically drilling down to legislators, municipal corporators, and the very grassroots foundation of the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction. However, while this tactical victory further decimates the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the collateral anxiety it has generated is being felt most acutely not within the UBT camp, but deep within the ranks of Shinde’s own senior ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party.


To understand the gravity of Shinde’s relentless political expansion, one must trace the genesis of his rebellion back to the very same upper house. It was the fateful MLC elections of 2022 where the then-ruling MVA suffered a humiliating defeat, losing a crucial seat to the opposition BJP. The blame for this cross-voting debacle was squarely placed on Eknath Shinde by the Uddhav Thackeray coterie. That slight became the catalyst for the most spectacular political coup in the state’s recent history.


A deeply hurt Shinde broke ranks, splintered the Shiv Sena, and ultimately brought the MVA government under Uddhav Thackeray crashing down. The BJP, still smarting from Thackeray’s 2019 decision to abandon their pre-poll alliance in favor of the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party, not only fanned the flames of Shinde’s rebellion but actively bankrolled his ascent. In a move that stunned political pundits across the country, the BJP installed Shinde as the Chief Minister—an investment they believed would permanently relegate the Shiv Sena to a subservient, manageable role.


Political Emancipation

For the ordinary BJP worker on the ground, the splintering of the Shiv Sena felt like a long-awaited political emancipation. For decades, the BJP grassroots had harbored a deep-seated grievance of being forced to play second fiddle to a domineering regional partner. The vertical split engineered by Shinde relieved that historical pressure. This newfound dominance was brilliantly cemented in the 2024 state assembly elections, where the BJP delivered a spectacular standalone performance, sending a record-breaking 132 legislators to the lower house. For the first time in the truest sense, the common BJP party worker tasted the unadulterated fruits of absolute political hegemony. They were the undisputed big brothers of the ruling Mahayuti alliance, dictating terms and driving the state’s overarching political narrative.


But Shinde’s surprise gambit with Sachin Ahir has violently disrupted this comfortable status quo. It confirms that he is not content merely surviving as a BJP-propped proxy. Under his astute leadership, his faction of the Shiv Sena has steadily mutated into a formidable political machine in its own right. By persistently absorbing the residual strength of the UBT faction, Shinde is systematically rebuilding the undivided Shiv Sena’s original architecture, just with a different captain at the helm. Operation Tiger is clearly no longer just about numerical survival; it is a meticulously planned project for absolute resurrection.


Palpable Sense

This relentless consolidation has triggered a palpable sense of dread among the BJP foot soldiers. The murmurs on the ground are increasingly anxious, painting a picture of an alliance marked by silent internal friction. If Shinde continues to successfully woo the remaining legislators, corporators, and shakha pramukhs from the Thackeray camp, his Sena could very well regain the organizational muscle and street-level dominance of the undivided era. The BJP leadership’s short-term strategy to use Shinde to annihilate the Thackerays might inadvertently breed a political behemoth they can no longer control.


For the seasoned BJP cadre, the impending power dynamics within the Mahayuti combine look increasingly precarious.


The immediate goal of keeping the MVA out of power is being achieved, but they are now questioning at what cost to the BJP’s own regional supremacy. As Eknath Shinde’s political stature grows by the day, the fundamental question haunting the local BJP karyakarta is no longer about today’s legislative arithmetic. It is an existential apprehension looking toward the future: If Shinde succeeds in wholly appropriating the legacy, cadre, and strength of the original Shiv Sena, the BJP may find itself right back where it started by the 2029 elections—forced, once again, to play the reluctant junior partner in its own political backyard.


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