Trump’s Tariff Tango

President Donald Trump’s trade instincts have long confounded both allies and adversaries. A handshake one day, a punitive levy the next: the pattern has become his signature. India has felt this volatility acutely. First, Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on certain Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude. In the process, he dismissed India as a “daddy economy” - a curious barb implying dependence rather than strength. Yet the country he appeared to belittle has only grown more formidable.

India’s economy, long portrayed as a sluggish giant, is now showing startling resilience. GDP growth in the last quarter topped 7.8 percent, outstripping most of its peers. Foreign-exchange reserves are at record highs, and gold stockpiles continue to swell. Agriculture and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises are expanding steadily, while industrial output has surged by more than 17 percent in recent months. International institutions, from JP Morgan to the International Monetary Fund, now describe India as poised to overtake Germany and Japan within the decade.

For a nation once dismissed as slow-moving, the transformation is unmistakable.

The recent SCO summit in Tianjin, China, offered a symbolic confirmation of India’s newfound influence. Sitting alongside China and Russia, India projected itself not merely as a participant in regional dialogue but as a potential pole of power in a multipolar world. The summit reinforced the notion that America can no longer isolate India without strategic consequences. Trump’s language, once dismissive, has begun to soften in response. Bluster has given way to cautious respect - a rare recalibration for a president renowned for his rhetorical volatility.

Several factors underpin this shift. India’s dominance in information technology, its rapidly growing semiconductor ambitions under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and its increasing integration into global supply chains make it indispensable. American firms, seeking alternatives to China, are eyeing India not just as a market but as a manufacturing hub. Agriculture, services and even defence procurement are becoming areas of growing interdependence. Startups, producing dozens of unicorns annually, highlight an innovation engine that few emerging economies can rival.

India’s role in shaping regional security in the Indo-Pacific and its participation in multilateral organizations positions it as a natural counterweight to China. For decades, U.S. policymakers have paid lip service to India as a stabilizing force in Asia. Today, that premise is being vindicated by data and diplomacy alike. The prospect of a multipolar world, with India, Russia and China forming an influential trio, challenges Washington to reconsider its assumptions about global influence.

Trump’s unpredictability remains a wildcard. His transactional approach means that tariffs and visa restrictions can continually resurface as leverage in negotiations. A single tweet or public address could undo months of careful diplomacy. Nonetheless, the structural trend is unmistakable: India’s economic heft and geopolitical influence are forcing a recalibration in Washington. Analysts note that Trump’s softened rhetoric may foreshadow a rollback of some punitive measures, particularly as American businesses lobby for greater access to the Indian market.

The political impact extends beyond trade as a new generation of urban Indian voters is asserting its preference for domestic over foreign brands, turning consumer choices into a form of geopolitical expression.

Another dimension is technology. India is emerging as a critical player in semiconductor manufacturing and digital services. Trump’s administration, keen to counter China’s technological dominance, has incentives to cultivate collaboration rather than confrontation. Energy is also a flashpoint: India’s growing reliance on renewable energy and its increasing role in global climate negotiations create arenas where cooperation, rather than tariffs, may be mutually beneficial.

The U.S.-India relationship is evolving into a complex matrix of economics, politics and symbolism. While Trump’s tariff threats capture headlines, the underlying dynamics reveal a broader story that India has grown too large, too innovative, and too strategically important to be ignored. The onus is on Washington to balance domestic political imperatives with the necessity of cultivating a partnership that serves both economies and stabilizes an increasingly fractious world.

India intends to assert its economic sovereignty while engaging with Washington pragmatically. The SCO summit and other forums underscore India’s confidence that its role in the world is now a decisive factor in shaping policy, not merely a backdrop to American strategy. The softening of Trump’s rhetoric, modest though it may be, only reinforces India’s standing as a global power.

(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)