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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Trump's Win Could Be India’s Gain

Trump's Win Could Be India’s Gain

The U.S., known for innovation, has a high demand for skilled IT professionals. Indian IT experts, valued for their skills and work ethic, are highly sought after in the U.S. As more U.S. companies rely on technology, demand for talent in development and support roles is likely to increase under Trump. This presents a strong opportunity for Indian IT professionals who not only contribute to U.S. businesses but also strengthen U.S.-India relations. Trump may prioritise American workers, but Indian professionals, known for flexibility and resilience, may still find opportunities.


Currently, most large IT professionals are legal immigrants and should not face any issues. Companies have figured out how to navigate this issue for a long time. They have a mix of hiring, including employees who work with clients in Global Capability Centres, or GCCs, based out of India in US shift time to serve US clients. Hence, there will be no impact on hiring, and it’s cheaper for companies to get remote support than hiring locals in the US.


In recent years, the U.S. has shared defence equipment and technology with India, including plans to manufacture jet engines and drones domestically. India’s push in trade and energy investment should further strengthen ties under Trump. The U.S.-India partnership in AI, fueled by India’s ambitious youth, is expected to create more job opportunities in India. As for trade between the two nations, Trump's previous tenure as President offers valuable insights.


During Trump’s first term, he fostered strong ties with PM Modi, including lower tariffs for U.S. companies. A second term could bring a beneficial free trade agreement for India.


The White House’s welcome of Modi last year underscored joint efforts to counter China’s influence, as global challenges require India-U.S. collaboration. Modiji is seeking to raise the status of India, the world’s most populous young country and the fifth-largest economy, as the world’s manufacturing and diplomatic powerhouse. This is the reason why the USA announced a few deals, some aimed at diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on China. While others are aimed at cornering the market with advanced technologies that may feature on the battlefield of the future.


While Trump’s win is expected to benefit the IT sector and trade, it may bring challenges for IT professionals, particularly of H1B visas and immigration laws. Trump’s return could mean stricter scrutiny on visa applications, though H1B visa allocations are not expected to be reduced. With proper documentation and strong professional skills, visa stamping should remain achievable, despite heightened scrutiny.


According to last year’s data, about 80,000 IT professionals in the U.S. are unemployed and are keen on staying in the country. However, the shift towards remote work has enabled IT companies to support remote delivery, potentially expanding job opportunities for professionals in India. With Trump’s policies, the job market may open further, creating more remote roles for IT workers in India.


India maintains strong relations with both Democrats and Republicans, so strengthening ties between the two countries should not face any major obstacles.


Trump’s firm stance on business, trade, and tariffs could pose challenges, but his tough approach to China aligns with India’s efforts to counter China’s influence. Additionally, Trump may work to ease tensions between Canada and India, potentially boosting trade opportunities between these countries.


Globally, a Trump victory could boost trade and foreign direct investment from the U.S. to India. His policies will likely promote peace in the Middle East, stability in Asia, and expedited approval for key projects. Additionally, his core team members have maintained a positive stance towards India, with no known affiliations to anti-India positions. These factors could contribute to India’s growth, strengthened further by the friendship between Trump and Prime Minister Modi.


(The author is IT professional. He has written a book, USA Calling.)

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