top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Understanding Life and Death the Vedantic Way

In a world searching for meaning amid uncertainty, Vedanta reminds us that death is not an end, but a transition.

In Indian philosophy, life and death are not seen as absolute opposites locked in endless conflict. Vedantic thought understands them instead as rhythmic movements within a larger, balanced cosmic order, where creation and dissolution exist in harmony. Rooted in the Upanishads, elaborated in the Bhagavad Gita, and refined by generations of thinkers, Vedanta encourages us to view human existence not as a straight line from birth to extinction, but as a meaningful journey between manifestation and withdrawal, marked by continuity rather than finality.


At the core of Vedanta lies the concept of Atman, the eternal Self that transcends all physical limitations. While the body ages, weakens, and eventually perishes, the Self remains untouched by time and change. The Katha Upanishad affirms this enduring truth by declaring that the Self is unborn, undying, and eternal. Life and death, therefore, apply only to the physical and psychological dimensions subject to transformation. Death is a passage from one state of being to another, not an end.


This philosophical view challenges the modern tendency to see death as a disruption or even a failure of existence. Contemporary society, driven by speed, productivity, success, and the desire for permanence, often treats mortality as an unwelcome interruption to progress. Death is pushed out of sight, hidden behind euphemisms and hospital curtains, while youth and endless growth are relentlessly celebrated. Vedanta offers a different perspective: awareness of death does not diminish life; rather, it deepens and enriches it. By accepting impermanence, one learns to live with greater attentiveness, humility, gratitude, and compassion for both oneself and others.


The Bhagavad Gita offers one of the most powerful and enduring expressions of this understanding. Krishna reminds Arjuna that just as a person discards old clothes and puts on new ones, the Self sheds the worn-out body and takes on another. This metaphor gently softens the fear of death while still acknowledging its depth and seriousness. It suggests that change, not annihilation, governs existence at every level. Life flows naturally into death, and death, in turn, prepares the ground for renewal and new life.


Vedanta often explains this movement through images drawn from nature and everyday experience, making its ideas easier to grasp. Day gently shifts into night, wakefulness turns into sleep, and inhalation naturally leads to exhalation. The Mandukya Upanishad compares life and death to the states of waking, dreaming, and deep sleep, presenting them as part of a continuous cycle of consciousness. Death is akin to deep sleep—a temporary withdrawal from sensory experience—followed by another awakening into a different state of being. Such imagery does not romanticise death; rather, it makes it more comprehensible, easing the fear that arises from ignorance and uncertainty.


Importantly, Vedanta does not promote withdrawal from life or the glorification of death. Instead, it emphasises the ideal of jivanmukti—liberation while living, where inner freedom coexists with active participation in the world. A person who understands the temporary nature of the body and the continuity of the Self remains fully engaged with life, yet inwardly free and unburdened by fear. Duties are performed without excessive attachment, relationships are cherished without possessiveness, and suffering is faced with calm acceptance and emotional resilience.


In times of widespread anxiety—such as during pandemics, environmental crises, and violent conflict—the Vedantic view becomes especially relevant. It does not deny grief, but it prevents despair. It teaches that life and death are partners in a cosmic rhythm, not enemies in battle. This awareness encourages ethical living, as we recognise that every action leaves an imprint beyond a single lifetime.


Ultimately, Vedanta points beyond the oscillation itself. If life and death are always in motion, there must be a still centre. That centre is Brahman—unchanging, infinite consciousness. To glimpse this truth, even briefly, transforms one’s relationship with mortality. By realising that we are more than bodies bound by time, we learn to live wisely and to face death with dignity.


This insight underscores the enduring relevance of Indian Vedantic philosophy in a world searching for meaning amid uncertainty.


(The author has 44 books to his credit in English literature. Views personal.)

 

Comments

bottom of page