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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

When Icons Crumble: The Fall of India Inc.’s Mascots

The spectacular downfall of India’s corporate champions lays bare how hubris and easy credit hollowed out the promise of liberalisation.

Anil Ambani                                          Rana Kapoor                                         Chanda Kochhar
Anil Ambani Rana Kapoor                                      Chanda Kochhar

In the heady years following liberalisation, India Inc. discovered some stereotypical heroes in form of the charismatic promoter who would spin ambition into value, the banker who would enable growth and the finance head who would symbolise elevation. These marquee names were intimate with Prime Ministerial corridors and featured on covers of business glossies as emblems of India’s inexorable rise. Yet, in recent times, at least three of those icons - Anil Ambani, Rana Kapoor and Chanda Kochhar - stand as examples of what happens when the cult of the promoter overtakes the discipline of enterprise, and the banker becomes the enabler rather than the gatekeeper.


Promoter’s Mirage

Anil Ambani once embodied India’s post-liberalisation entrepreneurial aspiration. When the legendary Dhirubhai Ambani empire split in 2006, the younger brother inherited the banner of telecom, infrastructure, energy and financial services under the Reliance ADA Group. He launched ventures that drew board-room buzz and media fascination; a global joint venture with Spielberg’s DreamWorks and India’s fastest IPOs were his badge of ambition.


He cultivated an image his more reticent elder brother never embraced: jogging along Marine Drive, socialising with film stars, and projecting an almost cinematic aura of success. His wife, Tina Ambani, a former Bollywood actress, embodied the glamour that helped make the younger Ambani a household name.


But beneath the sheen, cracks were forming. Reliance Communications collapsed under massive debt, banks declared loan accounts fraudulent; regulators began probing alleged diversion of funds. In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) banned him from the securities market for five years, alleging siphoning of funds from a housing-finance subsidiary. More recently, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) have accelerated investigations into alleged fund diversion and money-laundering at the group.


Today, he stands encircled by regulators and prosecutors, the empire he built from inherited glory reduced to a patchwork of insolvencies, debt restructurings and courtroom dramas.


Earlier this week, the ED attached one of his last great symbols of ambition - the 132-acre Dhirubhai Ambani Knowledge City (DAKC) campus in Navi Mumbai, worth roughly Rs 4,462 crore. It followed the seizure of 42 other immovable assets, including his sea-facing Pali Hill residence, collectively valued at more than Rs 4,400 crore. The agency alleges that loans raised by Anil Ambani’s group companies were diverted to sister firms, funnelled through shell entities, and even remitted abroad under the guise of legitimate transactions.


As per the CBI chargesheet filed earlier, Rana Kapoor, co-founder of Yes Bank, and Ambani allegedly engaged in a quid-pro-quo arrangement. Between 2017 and 2019, Yes Bank extended Rs 3,000 crore in loans to financially stressed Reliance ADA Group entities. In return, the group made low-interest loans and investments in companies owned by Kapoor’s wife and daughters.


Kapoor, once hailed as India’s most dynamic banker, is now in jail under money-laundering charges. He is accused of turning Yes Bank into a conduit for high-risk lending to indebted corporate groups in exchange for personal gain.


Kapoor’s Yes Bank was bailed out in 2020 after a run on deposits threatened contagion. Ambani’s group, meanwhile, has been forced into serial asset sales - an estimated Rs 73,250 crore worth since 2019 - to repay creditors and stave off further collapse.


Banker’s Betrayal

Rana Kapoor’s downfall mirrors Ambani’s hubris in financial form. As Yes Bank’s founder, he promised innovation and growth, branding himself as the evangelist of ‘sunrise sectors.’ His charisma impressed regulators and investors alike. The bank’s balance sheet expanded at breakneck speed. But by the late 2010s, its loans were increasingly concentrated in risky corporate exposures, namely DHFL, Jet Airways and the Anil Ambani Group among them.


By 2020, the Reserve Bank of India intervened. Investigators alleged that Kapoor had systematically under-reported stressed assets while simultaneously enriching himself. He was arrested under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act and later charged with accepting bribes in exchange for loans. His case typifies the blurring of lines between lender and borrower, where personal relationships supplanted fiduciary responsibility.


If Ambani and Kapoor represent promoter and banker excess, Chanda Kochhar symbolises the corporate executive gone astray. Once hailed as the face of women’s empowerment in Indian finance, the former CEO of ICICI Bank was found guilty earlier this year by an appellate tribunal under the Smugglers and Foreign Exchange Manipulators (Forfeiture of Property) Act. The tribunal upheld the ED’s attachment of her assets, ruling that she had accepted a Rs. 64 crore bribe in exchange for sanctioning a Rs. 300 crore loan to the Videocon Group in 2009.


The money trail led from Videocon to NuPower Renewables, promoted by her husband, and then through a series of shell firms linked to Videocon’s founder, Venugopal Dhoot.


These stories of Ambani, Kapoor and Kochhar illustrate much more than greed; they expose a structural weakness in India’s corporate culture. Since the 1990s, India Inc. has rewarded flamboyance over foresight. The ‘mascot’ model of leadership which views the promoter as celebrity, the banker as visionary and the executive as icon thrived on proximity to power, not performance.


For years, regulatory forbearance and opaque governance allowed such figures to flourish. Boards were ornamental, auditors pliant, and creditors indulgent. Success was judged by market capitalisation and access, not by transparency or sustainability. When the tide of liquidity ebbed and the public mood shifted, the cracks became chasms.


Yet India’s institutional response has grown sharper. The ED, CBI and SEBI have become more assertive, even if critics question their selectivity. Courts have tightened scrutiny, and the Reserve Bank of India has overhauled its supervisory frameworks. Still, these are belated repairs to a system that long confused reputation with reliability.


The recent seizures from Ambani’s empire may be seen as symbolic restitution. But the deeper test lies in whether India Inc. can evolve beyond personality-driven capitalism. Governance reforms, stronger boards, and investor activism must replace the old equations of patronage and deference.


In a curious twist, even as Ambani fights charges, his group continues to bid for defence and power contracts; Kapoor’s bank has been recapitalised and lives on under new management; Kochhar, though disgraced, still contests her case. The machinery of capitalism rarely pauses for moral reflection. But the public has changed. In a country where billionaires were once admired as embodiments of national destiny, there is now fatigue with corporate melodrama. The image of a barefoot Ambani declaring bankruptcy in a London courtroom or of a once-revered banker in handcuffs has punctured the mythology of infallibility.


India’s liberalisation produced a generation of business idols. They were lauded as visionaries who would carry the tricolour to global boardrooms. But as the cases of Anil Ambani, Rana Kapoor and Chanda Kochhar reveal, the distance between aspiration and excess is perilously small when accountability is deferred.


Their collapse exposes the risks of an economy where ambition outpaces ethics and where oversight is reactive, not preventive. If India Inc. is to avoid repeating this cycle of rise and ruin, it must abandon the cult of the mascot and rediscover the quiet virtues of transparency and restraint.


For now, the ruins of DAKC stand as both monument and metaphor: a gleaming campus built on debt and dreams, reclaimed by the state that once celebrated its builder.

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