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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is...

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is scheduled for June 18, with the all-important counting set for June 22. Addressing the media after inaugurating the Jawahar Balbhavan in Mumbai, Fadnavis sought to project a calm exterior. He emphasised that detailed discussions are still ongoing to evaluate various aspects of the electoral battle. He expressed confidence that the alliance would soon reach an amicable solution. However, the specific geographies he mentioned reveal the exact fault lines. Negotiations with the Shiv Sena are heavily concentrated on Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar and Nashik. Meanwhile, talks with the Nationalist Congress Party are focused squarely on Pune. Alliance Arithmatic The arithmetic of the alliance is proving incredibly difficult to balance. The Shiv Sena had firmly demanded seven seats even as the BJP was offering only 3. They justify this claim by pointing to their strong support bases in Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Sambhajinagar, Ratnagiri, Nashik, and Yavatmal. The Bharatiya Janata Party has a vastly different calculation. The BJP plans to assert its dominance by contesting twelve seats. This aggressive stance would leave only three seats for the Sena and a mere two seats for the Sunetra Pawar-led NCP. With the nomination process already underway, the clock is ticking loudly for the Mahayuti leadership. This intense internal friction prompted a sudden political maneuver by Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde. He flew to New Delhi over the weekend amid the escalating deadlock. Sena sources indicated that Shinde sought the intervention of the BJP’s central leadership. A Sena minister, however, quickly tried to downplay the optics of the trip. He insisted that Shinde travelled for an unscheduled programme before heading to Bengaluru for a planned event. Despite these official denials, the timing strongly suggests a high-stakes crisis intervention. Bitter Conflict The most bitter conflict within the alliance centers on the Thane local authorities constituency. Both the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena are fiercely staking their claims. A BJP legislator recently argued that political tickets should be distributed based strictly on numerical strength. He pointed out that the BJP commands 444 corporators in the region. In stark contrast, the Shinde-led Sena and the allied Jijau organisation possess a combined total of only 346 corporators. However, political reality in Maharashtra is rarely dictated by numbers alone. The Shinde faction views Thane as its emotional and traditional stronghold. Surrendering this territory to their alliance partner is considered politically unthinkable. This local dispute is already threatening to severely damage the broader coalition. A Sena Member of Parliament recently issued a stark warning regarding the upcoming Thane Zilla Parishad elections. He boldly asserted that Sena workers are fully prepared to fight alone and hoist their saffron flag, regardless of the alliance’s survival. The battle lines are extending further across the state map. The Sena is demanding the Jalgaon seat, which the BJP is equally determined to contest. Furthermore, reports suggest the Sena is preparing to unilaterally field a candidate in Raigad. This would further complicate the already delicate negotiations. Despite these mounting tensions, BJP minister Girish Mahajan has publicly maintained that the deadlock will be resolved shortly. A final decision now rests on an impending high-level meeting between Fadnavis, Shinde, and Sunetra Pawar. MVA Crisis Meanwhile, the political turbulence is not restricted to the Mahayuti alliance. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi is dealing with its own severe crisis in the Vidarbha region. The Chandrapur-Gadchiroli council seat has triggered frantic political poaching. As many as sixty corporators and Zilla Parishad members from the Congress party reportedly went missing recently. Congress leaders have directly accused BJP legislator Banti Bhangadiya of orchestrating this disappearance. They allege he has shifted the corporators to an undisclosed location to manipulate the voting outcome. The Congress has responded with an aggressive counter-narrative. Senior Congress leader Vijay Wadettiwar made a startling claim that over one hundred BJP corporators are secretly in contact with him. While Wadettiwar strategically hid their exact whereabouts, his statement highlighted a critical vulnerability. He suggested that the BJP is also suffering from severe internal factionalism. Wadettiwar warned that these hidden rifts will ultimately cost the ruling party dearly in the forthcoming elections.

Why India’s Public Debate Fails its Economy

Partisan shouting matches over growth, GST, and reforms drown out the nuanced discussion India’s economy sorely needs.

For much of modern history, the economy has been too important to be left to economists—and too complicated to be left to politicians. That uneasy truth is being tested again. From Washington to New Delhi, the state of the economy has become the prime theatre of political combat. Since America’s “Make America Great Again” era ushered in a new age of tariffs and economic nationalism, economic arguments have drifted from the pages of financial journals to television studios and social media feeds. India has been no exception. The very vocabulary of economics has been co-opted by politicians seeking applause rather than understanding. A field which demands statistical rigour has been reduced to rhetorical ammunition in the battle for votes.


Depending on who one listens to, the country is either “a dead economy” (as per US President Donald Trump, echoed gleefully by opposition leaders at home) or “the world’s fastest-growing major economy,” as the IMF insists. Every policy measure, from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to demonetisation, invites the same binary ritual: a triumph for reformers or a catastrophe for citizens. The recent restructuring of GST slabs, which helped push festive season sales to record highs, is hailed by some as proof of economic vitality and dismissed by others as a token gesture too late to matter.


Such ‘good-or-bad’ framing betrays an intellectual laziness. Managing a nation of 1.4 billion people with vast regional and class divides is a feat of complexity. To reduce its economic challenges to moral absolutes is to strip away the nuance that serious debate demands. India’s economic management, like that of any large democracy, calls for patient scrutiny, not soundbites. That scrutiny is often drowned out by partisan certainty, and an environment in which ideology substitutes for analysis and conviction trumps competence.


Political patronage

Oversimplification is hardly new. In 1991, when India’s foreign reserves had sunk so low that it had to mortgage its gold, policymakers abandoned decades of socialist planning and embraced privatisation. The reformers’ narrative was tidy: socialism had failed, and liberalisation would deliver salvation. But that argument mistook corruption for ideology. What collapsed in the late 1980s was not socialism itself but its bureaucratic caricature - the infamous ‘Licence Raj’ that throttled enterprise and enriched cronies.


The backlash that followed produced its own extremes. The privatisation era of the 1990s unleashed growth and efficiency but also spawned some of the biggest stock-market scams in Indian history. The problem was never socialism or capitalism per se, but how both were distorted through political patronage. Yet, public discourse preferred to blame the ‘isms’ rather than the institutions that corrupted them.


The same fate befell the Modi government’s farm laws in 2020. Proponents hailed them as a long-overdue liberalisation that would grant farmers the freedom to sell to private buyers, as they already do in sectors such as education, health, and telecommunications. Opponents branded them as a corporate land grab that would destroy rural livelihoods. What could have been a robust debate about implementation and safeguards collapsed into a street fight of slogans. The government, overwhelmed by protest and polemic, eventually withdrew the laws, making it another casualty of binary politics.


Even the annual Union Budget, an exercise meant to calibrate the country’s economic priorities, has degenerated into a predictable theatre. The ruling party lauds it as “visionary and inclusive.” The opposition derides it as “elitist and inflationary.” Commentators feign “cautious optimism.” Few bother to examine the data or assess whether the budget meets the country’s long-term developmental needs.


The missing middle

While pundits squabble, genuine economic questions languish. How robust is India’s growth when its export basket remains dominated by low-value goods like textiles, gems, pharmaceuticals, while its imports include oil, semiconductors, and high-tech weaponry? How sustainable is ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ or self-reliance, when domestic manufacturing still depends on foreign inputs? Such questions require empirical honesty, not partisan loyalty.


In truth, India’s economy is neither dead nor dazzling. A growth rate of around 6.5 percent in a sluggish global environment is no small feat. Yet structural weaknesses - from jobless growth to a narrow tax base and a fragile banking sector - persist. The IMF’s praise and the opposition’s pessimism both miss the point that the Indian economy is a work in progress, and neither miracle nor mirage.


The need for sober analysis is all the more urgent because the global context is shifting. The same Western economies that once evangelised globalisation are now retreating behind tariff walls and subsidy regimes. From America’s industrial policy to Europe’s green protectionism, economic nationalism is back in fashion. India, once nudged into opening its markets, now preaches self-reliance. Today, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is not a choice so much as a necessity in a world where supply chains are weaponised.


That context should inspire pragmatism. Instead, political actors turn every decision – be it GST, demonetisation, farm laws - into a test of ideological purity. Each becomes a litmus of loyalty rather than an opportunity for refinement. Economic policymaking, like democracy itself, thrives on iteration and feedback. But feedback has become impossible when dissent is dismissed as sabotage and support is equated with sycophancy.


For democracies, such partisanship is dangerous. When the economy becomes a rhetorical battlefield, citizens lose sight of trade-offs and constraints. Every reform has costs and every welfare measure creates distortions. Yet the public imagination is conditioned to expect ‘free lunches’ - a fantasy that economists have spent decades debunking. As one cynical adage goes, if the road feels smooth, you are probably rolling downhill; if everything is coming your way, you are likely in the wrong lane.


To rebuild trust, India needs a new kind of economic discourse – one that is grounded in evidence, open to compromise and separated, at least in part, from electoral arithmetic. Think-tanks, universities, and media institutions must reclaim the space ceded to partisan noise. Politicians, too, must learn that humility in economic reasoning is not weakness but wisdom.


In the end, what India requires is not blind faith in any ideology but a realism that recognises complexity. The world’s fourth-largest economy cannot afford the luxury of intellectual shortcuts. History suggests that nations that persist with clear-headed, long-term policies, whatever their ideological hue, are the ones that prosper.


Until India learns to discuss its economy without turning it into a partisan referendum, it will continue to mistake noise for debate and ideology for insight. And that, more than any fiscal deficit, is the real constraint on its growth.


(The writer works in the Information Technology sector. Views personal.)

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