top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Why Plastic Persists: It’s All in the Chemistry

Plastic pollution has two faces: careless human behaviour and the stubborn chemistry of the material itself.

As I mentioned in my last article, while speaking at the ‘Beat the Plastic Pollution’ seminar, one participant asked how discarded plastic actually pollutes the environment. The answer, I explained, lies on two levels. The first is simple and immediate: our everyday habits of careless disposal—throwing plastic on streets, into drains, water bodies, or open land. This behaviour contaminates soil, air, and water, chokes wildlife, blocks natural drainage systems, and turns public spaces into dumping grounds. This behavioural aspect, rooted in awareness and responsibility, was discussed in detail during that session.


The second answer, however, goes far deeper and is far more complex. It is linked to the very chemical nature of plastics, the enormous volume of waste being generated, their slow degradation, and the toxic substances they release into the environment over time. This is the aspect we now need to examine closely. Let us explore these factors one by one.


As we have learnt before, the average consumer comes into daily contact with all kinds of plastic materials. Most of these plastics are derived from petroleum and can be moulded, cast, spun, or applied as coatings. They are everywhere around us—in packaging, clothing, kitchenware, electronics, construction materials, and countless everyday products.


We have also learnt that plastic is made up of long chains of molecules, arranged in a seemingly endless series of interconnected links. This structure gives plastic its strength, durability, and flexibility. However, it is this very same structure that makes plastic so resistant to breakdown once it is discarded.


In contrast, natural polymers such as rubber and silk are also used and thrown away in large quantities. Yet, these “plastics” made by nature itself have not been blamed for environmental pollution. The reason is simple: they do not persist in the environment for long periods. They degrade or break down naturally. In other words, they are biodegradable and return safely to natural cycles.


Synthetic plastics, however, are very different. Due to their complex chemical composition, most of them are largely non-biodegradable. Not only do they fail to break down easily, but they also resist almost all natural processes of decomposition. As a result, they can remain in the environment for hundreds of years, accumulating steadily with every passing decade.


Another major problem lies in the manner in which plastics are disposed of. A large portion of plastic products—especially lightweight, single-use items and packaging—are not properly collected. In fact, such products account for nearly 65 per cent of all plastics produced. Instead of being placed in containers for transport to landfills, recycling centres, or incinerators, they are often discarded carelessly right where their usefulness ends.


They are dropped on the ground, thrown out of stationary or moving cars, buses, or train windows, heaped onto already overflowing dustbins, or simply carried away by a gust of wind. The moment this happens, they begin to pollute the environment. What starts as “just one wrapper” quickly becomes part of a much larger problem.


And sadly, we do not spare even the sea. Consider a ferry ride from the Gateway of India to Alibag or the Gharapuri Caves. During the journey, it is common to see people feeding seagulls with food packed in multilayered plastic pouches and then throwing those empty pouches directly into the water. The sea becomes a dumping ground, right before our eyes.


Nor are our forests and protected areas safe. Forests, wildlife sanctuaries, grasslands, wetlands, and lakes are all increasingly littered with plastic waste. Even the most remote places have not been spared. Plastic has reached Mount Everest, too, carried there by human activity and tourism.


As we shall learn later, the plastic that litters our roads, parks, and public places does not stay there. It is washed into nearby gutters and drainage systems, eventually flowing into rivers and finally into the seas and oceans. What we throw away locally becomes a global problem.


Thank goodness aeroplane windows cannot be opened. Otherwise…! The thought itself is frightening.


Indeed, landscapes littered with plastic packaging have become a common sight in many parts of the world. Illegal dumping and overflowing waste containers further worsen the situation. Plastic pollution today is not just an environmental issue; it is a reflection of how casually we treat our surroundings.


More on this next week. Till then, have a nice weekend!


(The writer is an environmentalist. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page