World ‘flying’ older planes: EIR’s Report
Mumbai: Faced by the largest backlog of aircraft orders ever in global commercial aviation history, the world is flying airplanes that are much older than expected and for longer periods, according to a report by Eureka Institutional Research (EIR).
Step on a flight anywhere in the world and the chance is the aircraft is much older, possibly one that may be on its last legs – creating a curious scenario for all stakeholders.
Though airlines are desperately waiting for new aircraft that have been ordered, these are just not delivered fast enough. The result is despite the demand for flying soaring, aircraft fleets are aging at a quick pace, with other accompanying problems.
As per the EIR report released on Saturday, currently, the global order book shows a demand for a staggering 17,175 aircraft of different sizes and configurations, with just three countries accounting for the lion’s share.
They are the world’s top three populated countries and crucial economies - India, China and the USA. While USA tops the list with 2,988 aircraft orders (17.4 pc), India is next with 1,940 orders (11.3 pc) followed by China with 1615 orders (9.4 pc).
Complicating the order pileup is the fleet replacement need that exists independent of traffic growth. The average age of a global commercial aircraft fleet has jumped – from the pre-Pandemic baseline of 12.9 years in 2019 to 15.1 years in 2026.
This 2.2-year increase of an aircraft age in seven years is billed as the highest notched in 112-year-old history of commercial aviation that took wings in 1914.
India’s Backlog
India’s order backlog has forced its active fleet of 815 aircraft, operated by multiple private players, to operate at an average of 123 pc of its 2019 peak flight hours – next only to China’s 131 pc globally, as per the EIR study.
With a passenger demand of 245 million per annum or 151,010 physical seats, India has already reached the saturation point and needs as many new aircraft as its current fleet strength, said the EIR study, citing DGCA and Euresearch data.
Accordingly, nearly half of all aircraft that are expected to be delivered over the next two decades world over, won’t help expand fleets, but merely replace the aged jets, as the already-stretched major aircraft manufacturers struggle to fulfil their order books of over 17,000 new flying machines.
Though the average age of 15.1 may not sound alarming as aircraft are built to last, but after the 10/12-year mark, the planes have to undergo mandatory heavy maintenance checks that are not only time-consuming but expensive.
As the aircraft age more, these checks become frequent and more invasive as engines require periodic overhauls, or parts wear out faster and the downtime increases – effectively compelling the airlines to pour more money to keep their older planes in the skies rather than invest in ordering sleek new and more efficient aircraft.
Fliers Hit
The fliers too are directly hit by this scenario. As older planes are difficult to maintain and new aircraft deliveries delayed, the available seats cannot cope up with the demand, and hence the passengers have no options but to shell out more per seat.
For emerging economies like India or China which are experiencing a travel boom with the middle-class taking to the skies more often, the passenger growth figures are surging in double-digits, but are far outpaced by the availability of number of seats.
Aviation experts caution that the world is entering a phase where aging aircraft, delayed replacements and growing demand for flying could continue to coexist for years – entailing higher ticket fares and packed flights for passengers and narrower profit margins and growing operation strain for the airlines.
Comments