In an astonishing political turnaround, the ruling Mahayuti coalition, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), secured a remarkable victory in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election. The stunning performance is all the more impressive as it stands in stark contrast to their near-total rout in the Lok Sabha elections held just four months ago. The Mahayuti’s resurgence reflects a disciplined strategy, a deft recalibration of its narrative, and an ability to exploit the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) inherent weaknesses.
The results lead the BJP, in a career-best performance in Maharashtra, to firmly stake claim on the Chief Minister’s post with Devendra Fadnavis emerging the fairest man for the job. With no Maratha or OBC narrative-counter-narrative to roil the waters, one does not see any substantive obstacle in Fadnavis’ path to the chair.
As opposed to the Lok Sabha campaign, the Mahayuti and the NDA brass refrained from making personal attacks on the MVA leaders, with PM Modi wisely restraining himself from any ad hominem attacks on NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar. This strategy ensured that no sympathy was forthcoming for either Pawar senior or Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray.
The MVA, after its buoyant showing in the Lok Sabha, was plagued by internal discord throughout the run-up to the Assembly polls. Failure to control rebellion within its ranks further eroded its electoral prospects. Persistent disagreements over who would be the Chief Ministerial face, a choice fraught with ego clashes and competing ambitions, undermined the MVA’s ability to project a cohesive front.
The Mahayuti’s resurgence can be attributed to its ability to reorient its strategy on the ground. After their bruising Lok Sabha loss, the BJP and its allies embraced introspection rather than complacency. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a critical role, launching an intensive grassroots campaign to counter the narrative set by Muslim NGOs and other organizations that had gained traction during the general elections. The RSS’s network worked tirelessly to consolidate Hindu votes, offering a unified counter-narrative that resonated across urban and rural constituencies.
The MVA also struggled to counter the welfare schemes championed by the ruling Mahayuti government. Programs like the Ladki Bahin Yojana and other targeted initiatives gained traction among critical voter demographics, particularly women, leaving the opposition scrambling for an effective counter-narrative. Moreover, the MVA’s focus on identity politics, including Uddhav Thackeray’s minority appeasement strategies and Congress’s fixation on alleged EVM tampering, failed to resonate with voters seeking tangible governance outcomes.
The BJP’s comeback was grounded in lessons learned from its Lok Sabha defeat. Recognizing its vulnerabilities, the party executed an astute recovery plan, particularly in Vidarbha and Marathwada. In Vidarbha, the BJP managed to win over Dalit and backward class voters, a demographic over which it seemed to be losing its grip in the Lok Sabha. This success was attributed to grassroots outreach and welfare initiatives that struck a chord with marginalized communities.
In Marathwada, the BJP effectively countered the potential disruption posed by quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil. Jarange-Patil’s inconsistent stance on reservation demands undermined his credibility, allowing the Mahayuti to sideline his influence and retain control over the narrative in the region.
Crucially, the Mahayuti partners rectified the coordination issues that had hampered their Lok Sabha performance. In May, Ajit Pawar’s NCP votes largely failed to transfer to the BJP, exposing fissures within the alliance. By the Assembly polls, however, the Mahayuti had perfected its vote-transfer mechanism. This unity was instrumental in delivering a robust performance, especially in constituencies where seat-sharing dynamics had previously created friction.
What makes the Mahayuti’s victory particularly impressive is its scale, even in the absence of a ‘Modi wave’ that powered the BJP’s dominance in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections. In fact, the Mahayuti not only matched but exceeded its past performances, marking a comeback from a highly adverse situation. This triumph underscores the effectiveness of a localized campaign strategy, one that blended welfare politics with organizational discipline and voter outreach.
The BJP’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances is evident in its reinvention of its Vidarbha strategy, where it reversed its previous setbacks. The revival in this region highlights the party’s resilience and its capacity to engage with voter bases through policies tailored to regional concerns.
The Mahayuti’s resurgence was characterized by unprecedented coordination among its partners. Seat-sharing arrangements were streamlined, and candidate selection reflected an emphasis on quality over patronage. Unlike the Lok Sabha polls, where alliances frayed at the seams, the Assembly elections showcased a united front capable of mobilizing voters across party lines.
Ajit Pawar’s NCP votes seamlessly transferred to the BJP and Shiv Sena candidates, ensuring that constituencies critical to the alliance’s success were secured. This level of cooperation was absent just months earlier, making the turnaround all the more remarkable.
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s relentless grassroots campaigning played a pivotal role in mobilizing support. Shinde’s direct engagement with voters contrasted sharply with Uddhav Thackeray’s perceived aloofness, a holdover from his tenure as Chief Minister.
While the Mahayuti marched forward, the MVA appeared stuck in reverse. The opposition alliance’s failure to resolve internal discord left it vulnerable to defections and weakened its campaign machinery. Uddhav Thackeray’s attempt to reposition himself as a secular leader has alienated core Shiv Sena supporters. His alignment with minority leaders reinforced perceptions of appeasement politics, further eroding his credibility.
The Congress, meanwhile, failed to address its leadership vacuum. Its repeated allegations about EVM tampering whenever the day goes against them, have now fallen flat, with voters increasingly viewing such claims as a distraction from the real issues. The NCP (SP), under Sharad Pawar with performed remarkably well in the Lok Sabha, struggled to maintain its footing. The MVA’s inability to counter the Mahayuti’s narrative of development and welfare ultimately sealed its fate.
A critical factor in the Mahayuti’s success was its ability to secure the support of women voters in the increased 4 percent voter turnout. Welfare schemes such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana undoubtedly struck a chord with women across caste and class lines, creating a broad coalition of support for all three Mahayuti parties. Women turned out in large numbers, tipping the scales in favour of the ruling alliance.
The MVA, in contrast, failed to articulate a compelling vision for women voters, allowing the Mahayuti to dominate this crucial demographic.
The results highlighted a decisive shift in voter priorities. Ajit Pawar’s comfortable win in the Baramati Assembly segment, despite his wife Sunetra’s loss in the Lok Sabha elections, underscores the electorate’s preference for development over divisive politics. The Mahayuti’s emphasis on governance and welfare resonated with voters, allowing it to consolidate support across regions and demographics.
The Mahayuti’s victory offers valuable lessons for political coalitions across India. Unity, disciplined campaigning and a focus on governance can overcome even the most challenging circumstances. The MVA will have to address its leadership crisis and develop a coherent vision that resonates with voters. Identity politics can work once a while (as it favoured the INDIA bloc in this Lok Sabha polls), but the Maharashtra results prove that the sun is fast setting on such tactics.
The BJP’s ability to better its past performances, even in the absence of a national wave, reflects its adaptability and resilience. As the party looks ahead to civic and other state elections, Maharashtra offers a blueprint for overcoming adversity and achieving electoral success.
This election will be remembered as a contest where development triumphed over division, welfare politics outshone identity narratives.
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