A Leader Adrift

Shehbaz Sharif

The recent train hijacking in Balochistan is yet another grim testament to Pakistan’s accelerating descent into chaos. Armed militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) intercepted and seized control of the Peshawar-bound Jaffar Express near Mach, holding passengers hostage in a brazen display of defiance against the Pakistani state. This incident underscores not only the deteriorating security situation in Balochistan but also the sheer inability of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his government to exert control over a country increasingly resembling a failed state.

Since his return to power in February 2024, Shehbaz has faced an unrelenting barrage of crises - an economy in tatters, skyrocketing inflation, deepening ethnic and sectarian unrest, and a military establishment struggling to impose its will. His leadership, always seen as an extension of the real power centre - the military - has been rendered virtually impotent in the face of growing insurgency and political instability.

Shehbaz Sharif was never expected to be a leader in his own right. His political career has been defined by his role as a crisis manager rather than a visionary statesman. Unlike his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, who commanded a degree of personal authority, Shehbaz has long been seen as the military’s preferred administrator - a technocratic leader capable of executing orders rather than setting the national agenda. However, the challenges before him today are far greater than anything he faced during his tenure as Punjab’s chief minister.

In Punjab, Shehbaz was known for his hands-on approach, personally overseeing infrastructure projects and administrative matters. But governing Pakistan, particularly in its current fragile state, is a different beast altogether. The federal government’s control over large parts of the country is slipping, with Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increasingly resembling insurgency zones. Meanwhile, even within Punjab, which has historically been the power base of the Sharifs, discontent is growing as economic conditions worsen and political instability festers.

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but most neglected province, has long been a hotbed of insurgency. The Baloch separatist movement, catalysed by economic marginalization and heavy-handed military crackdowns, has evolved into a full-fledged rebellion. The recent train hijacking is a stark reminder that the insurgency is no longer confined to remote areas but is now brazenly challenging the state’s authority in broad daylight.

The BLA, which claimed responsibility for the attack, has intensified its operations in recent months, targeting security personnel, government installations, and key infrastructure. Their ability to hijack a train and take hostages without immediate retaliation exposes Islamabad’s weakening grip over the region. Shehbaz’s government issued the usual condemnations, but beyond rhetoric, there is little evidence that he has a coherent strategy to deal with the crisis.

Beyond security concerns, the economic situation in Pakistan continues to spiral out of control. The rupee is in freefall, inflation has skyrocketed and essential commodities are slipping beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. Shehbaz’s government has had to rely on repeated IMF bailouts to prevent economic collapse, but these come with stringent conditions that further erode his popularity.

Foreign investors remain wary of Pakistan’s instability, and local businesses are struggling under the weight of economic mismanagement. For a leader who built his reputation on efficiency, Shehbaz’s inability to stabilize the economy is proving to be one of his biggest failures.

His political challenges are exacerbated by the lingering influence of Imran Khan, whose PTI remains a potent force. Instead of consolidating power, Shehbaz is forced to navigate an uneasy coalition, dependent on allies like the PPP, while also placating an increasingly assertive military.

Traditionally, Pakistan’s military has been the ultimate arbiter of power, but even it appears overstretched. While General Asim Munir maintains a firm grip, the sheer number of internal security threats - from Baloch separatists to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants - has exposed the limits of the army’s reach.

Shehbaz’s reliance on the military for political survival means he cannot afford to challenge its authority. His tenure is fast proving to be one of firefighting without any real strategy, a premiership defined not by governance but by a desperate attempt to delay the inevitable collapse. If his government continues to drift, Pakistan may soon reach a point where no leader, military or civilian, can prevent it from slipping into the abyss.