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By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Tight Races

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers...

Tight Races

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers hint at something approaching change - the very slogan that once carried Mamata Banerjee to power in 2011. After 15 years of Trinamool Congress (TMC) dominance, most exit polls suggest a knife-edge contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Such a result, if borne out, would mark a structural shift. The BJP, once an afterthought in Bengal’s politics, now appears firmly entrenched as the principal challenger. Its steady expansion over the past decade, organisationally and electorally, has culminated in this moment of near parity. Yet the TMC’s resilience is equally striking. Despite anti-incumbency and an aggressive opposition campaign, it retains deep reservoirs of support, particularly in districts that reported exceptionally high turnout. That record turnout has added a further twist by magnifying volatility and making Bengal the most unpredictable theatre in this electoral cycle. If Bengal represents churn, Tamil Nadu offers a subtler story. Most exit polls give the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-Congress alliance a clear edge, pointing to a possible consecutive term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. Yet, beneath this apparent stability lies a potential disruptor in form of actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which introduces a wildcard into a historically bipolar system. While most projections stop short of placing TVK at the top, they consistently suggest it is eating into established vote banks. More ambitious estimates suggest the TVK capable of entirely upending Tamil Nadu’s political order. Further north-east, Assam looks set to defy the broader pattern of flux. Here the story is one of consolidation. Exit polls converge on a decisive victory for the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority. Such an outcome would underline the BJP’s entrenched dominance in the state, built on a combination of organisational depth and effective leadership. For the Congress, the figures are less forgiving as it appears unable to overcome structural weaknesses that have long plagued it in the region. Elsewhere, Kerala and Puducherry hint at further shifts. The CPM-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala may be on its way out, potentially ending the country’s only Left government, while the NDA looks poised to retain Puducherry with ease. The broader lesson is that while national narratives matter, state-specific dynamics like leadership, alliances, caste equations and regional aspirations continue to shape voter behaviour. On May 4, the numbers will either vindicate or embarrass the pollsters. But the signals, however tentative, are already visible.

A New Arrival in Mumbai’s Cricket Horizon

Ayush Mhatre

A new wonder kid has arrived on Mumbai’s cricket scene. He is 17-year-old Ayush Mhatre, a resident of Virar, 46 km from Mumbai.


The hard working and dedicated Ayush leaves his home at 4.15 am to catch 5 am local from Virar to reach the grounds in Mumbai where cricket matches and camps are run by numerous coaches. The wide network of Maidans is the real source of Mumbai’s cricket. From Vijay Merchant (Bharda High School, CST), Sunil Gavaskar (St. Xaviers), Dilip Vengsarkar (King George, Dadar), Sandeep Patil (Balmohan), Sachin Tendulkar (Shardashram) are all products of school cricket. Ayush Mhatre is a prodigious talent from IES V.N. Sule Guruji School, Dadar.


Mumbai is the nursery of Indian Cricket. Emerging talent specially batsmen are born and brought up from Mumbai. Vijay Merchant, Vijay Manjrekar, Sunil Gavaskar, Dilip Vengsarkar, Sachin Tendulkar, Rohit Sharma are a few examples.


Ayush scored 176 runs in his third first- class match and was chosen as Man of the Match. Sachin Koli, a coach at V.N. Sule Guruji School, has been instrumental in shaping the teenager’s cricket career. He impressed the authorities of Virar’s Sainath Sports Club, where he played with senior boys.


Ayush scored big runs in Mumbai U-16 age group tournaments. So he was elevated to U-19 age group. Coach Dinesh Lad is very impressed with Ayush’s batting. Maharashtra Ranji Trophy team coach Sulakshan Kulkarni also appreciated his batting. He is exceptional talent.


Sachin Koli spotted Ayush in inter-school match at Matunga Gymkhana. His parents wanted to change Ayush’s school. Koli immediately got Ayush admitted in Sule Guruji School. Tanush Kotian, an emerging all-rounder is also the product of Sule Guruji School which has given Mumbai players like Dhawal Kulkarni, Bhavin Thakkar, Vineet Indulkar and Sanjay Manjrekar.


Ayush batted well in the opening Ranji Trophy against Baroda scoring 52 and 22 runs. At BKC in the Maharashtra Derby clash against arch rivals Maharashtra he opened with Pruthvi Shaw. Pruthvi and Hardik Tamore got out early but Ayush put on big partnership with Shreyas Iyer who also scored a century. There was a stamp of authority in Ayush’s three consecutive fours of Rajvardhan Hangagrekar. Two beautiful backfoot drives and one through the mid-wicket.


Ayush relished spinners hitting sixers off Satyajit Bachhav and Hitesh Walunj. With Skipper Ajinkya Rahane Ayush added 99 runs for the third wicket which put Mumbai’s innings on sound footing.


At the age of 17, the Virar lad is learning to build innings, hallmark of a great batsman. Mumbai Ranji Trophy Selection Committee Chairman Sanjay Patil supported Ayush and he passed with flying colors. He was picked for KSCA Trophy where he scored 172 against Gujrat and clinched his place in the Senior team. Mushir Khan got injured and selectors gave Ayush an opportunity in the Irani Cup match and then in the 90-year-old Ranji Trophy. Ayush has grabbed he opportunity with both hands.


The selectors have dropped Pruthvi Shaw from Mumbai’s Ranji Trophy team for the match against Tripura but Ayush Mhatre is going strong with his batting. He can score runs consistently and should play big knocks so he can be in the limelight at such a young age.

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