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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

A Self-Inflicted Blow

Updated: Nov 25, 2024

Manoj Jarange-Patil

Ahead of the results, the Maratha quota movement, a simmering issue in the state’s politics for nearly 14 months, finds itself embroiled in a series of missteps and contradictions thanks in no small part to Manoj Jarange-Patil’s erratic leadership. Poised to play the role of a kingmaker in the Marathwada region in the run-up to the Assembly polls, Jarange-Patil’s vacillation on whether or not to field candidates for the upcoming polls, and his constant flip-flops, has undermined his own cause and diminished the potency of Maratha political mobilization in the region.


Marathwada, which comprises 46 assembly seats, was a key battleground in the Lok Sabha election this year where it had swung decisively against the ruling Mahayuti alliance, costing the BJP heavily.


Agrarian distress and the Maratha reservation issue brought to life by Jarange-Patil had taken centre stage among the electorate here. Long disillusioned with the establishment, sections of the Maratha community were expected to channel their grievances into a potent force against the ruling coalition this time as well.


However, the reality seems different. Jarange-Patil, with his trademark firebrand speeches, had initially rallied the community ahead of November 20 with calls of ‘revenge’ against the BJP-led Mahayuti for allegedly betraying Marathas over their reservation demands.


His dramatic announcement that he would field candidates had added to the growing pressure on the ruling parties. However, days before the polls, he performed a stunning volte-face, withdrawing the plan to field candidates by citing a lack of coordination with other caste groups and political parties. In a region where caste dynamics are a key factor, the BJP had fielded Maratha candidates in 28 of the 46 constituencies in a bid to take the wind out of Jarange-Patil’s sails.


The Maratha reservation issue, shot through with Jarange-Patil’s seemingly endless strike – a spectacle which had held Maharashtra hostage - has largely lost its steam. Jarange-Patil’s bewildering decision to reverse within a week of threatening to field candidates ensured that the quota issue would not emerge as a defining electoral debate in this region.


For the long term, this abrupt change of stance has left the Maratha community in a state of confusion. Had Jarange-Patil stuck to his guns, his entry into the electoral fray would not only have undercut the Mahayuti’s candidates but cemented his persona as a demagogue not to be trifled with. Now, by taking a step back, he has weakened the movement’s influence, costing the Maratha cause much-needed momentum. For all his earlier fire, the Maratha agitation now risks losing its teeth after the results on November 23.


The impact of Jarange-Patil’s deeds has heightened rifts within the Maratha and Other Backward Classes (OBC) communities in Maratha in the past 14 months. The conflict over quotas has deepened divisions, with OBC groups mobilizing in direct opposition to Jarange-Patil’s Maratha-centric protests.

Jarange-Patil’s decision to not field candidates did little to consolidate the Maratha vote, potentially leaving the community’s grievances unaddressed at the ballot box.


The Maratha community remains angry and mobilized, but without a clear, cohesive plan or leadership. While the activist has continued to make tall claims of pressing the demands of the Marathas on the new government formed after the November 23, the final analysis may well be that Jarange-Patil’s ‘self-inflicted wounds’ may do more to benefit the Mahayuti than to further the cause of the Maratha community he once sought to lead.

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