A Surplus of Strength

India’s central bank delivers record profits and resilience while its global peers struggle to stay afloat.

In the month of May 2025, India witnessed key economic milestones. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved a record Rs. 2.69 trillion surplus transfer to the government while strengthening provisions for future risks. Its annual report, released on 29th May 2025, provides insights into India's economic outlook, underscoring RBI’s financial strength and the economy’s resilience.

RBI's assets are divided into two key departments, namely the Banking Department, which manages government accounts, public debt, and banking services, and the Issue Department, which oversees currency issuance, supply regulation, and security. In FY 2024-25, the RBI's balance sheet expanded by 8.2 percent, reaching an unprecedented level of Rs. 76.25 lakh crores. Of this total, 52 percent of the assets belonged to the Banking Department, with the remaining assets allocated to the Issue Department.

The total balance sheet expansion was driven by a 52.09 percent rise in gold reserves to Rs. 6.68 lakh crores, alongside a 14.2 percent increase in domestic investments, mainly in government securities, reaching Rs. 15.59 lakh crores. Foreign investments saw only a modest uptick of 1.7 percent, totalling Rs. 48.83 lakh crores. With gold reserves now accounting for 9 percent of total assets, up from 7 percent in FY 2024, the RBI has strengthened its hedge against currency fluctuations amid geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. dollar volatility.

Domestic government securities now account for 18.7 percent of total assets, enhancing the RBI’s ability to manage liquidity through open market operations. This has helped absorb excess foreign portfolio inflows while maintaining stable bond yields. Foreign currency assets increased marginally by 1.7 percent, reflecting a cautious stance on global debt markets. The RBI’s forex reserves stand at approximately US$654.27 billion, covering 11 months of imports. While 65 percent remains dollar-denominated, holdings in euros (12 percent), yen (7 percent), and SDRs (6 percent) provide diversification against potential sanctions or dollar liquidity issues. A US$48 billion net forward book (7.3 percent of reserves) adds a buffer against speculative currency attacks, ensuring liquidity during balance-of-payments pressures.

Additionally, to minimize mark-to-market losses amid rising global interest rates, the RBI has prioritized short-duration U.S. Treasuries, with 60 percent of its forex reserves invested in instruments maturing within three years.

The liability side saw a 6 percent rise in currency circulation, reaching Rs. 36.89 crores from Rs. 34.78 crores. With the phased withdrawal of Rs. 2000 notes, 98.2 percent had been returned by March 25. The Rs. 500 note now accounts for 86 percent of total circulation value, enhancing transaction efficiency. Despite the increase in currency circulation, its share relative to the balance sheet has declined by 1 percent.

The revaluation account, now Rs. 12.4 lakh crore or 16.3 percent of liabilities, cushions mark-to-market volatility without affecting the surplus, which is based solely on realized gains.

RBI’s total income rose by 22.77 percent to Rs. 3.38 lakh crores, up from Rs. 2.76 lakh crores in the previous year. This growth was driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields (4.8 percent vs. 3.2 percent in FY 2024) and strategic forex swaps during rupee appreciation in Q3 FY 2025, contributing Rs. 34,000 crore. Active forex interventions stabilized the Rupee-US$ exchange rate, reducing currency risk in international trade.

The RBI’s record Rs. 2.69 lakh crore transfer (0.8 percent of GDP) created fiscal room for infrastructure without deepening the deficit. Meanwhile, a surge in gold reserves has helped buffer dollar volatility, but with a gold-to-forex ratio still below the global average and 64 percent of non-gold assets exposed, the RBI remains vulnerable to a dual shock in gold and dollar markets.

The RBI’s performance stands out remarkably compared to major central banks across developed economies. With an asset growth of 8.2 percent, RBI leads the pack, surpassing the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Canada (BoC) - none of which witnessed positive asset growth. RBI also reported the highest net income among these institutions, reaching US$ 31.5 billion, significantly ahead of the BoJ’s US$ 15.7 billion. In contrast, the Fed and BoE posted substantial losses of US$ 77.5 billion and US$ 40.5 billion, respectively.

The RBI holds the strongest risk buffer among major central banks, far surpassing peers like the Fed and BoE. Its blend of record profits, operational independence and agile policymaking has cemented its reputation for resilience and macroeconomic stewardship.

(The author is a Chartered Accountant with a leading company in Mumbai. Views personal.)