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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

A Tyranny of a Different Kind

Updated: Jan 2

Bangladesh

Revolutions often promise liberation but sometimes deliver a different kind of oppression. This truth has become painfully evident in Bangladesh, where the streets of Dhaka, once bustling with the fervour of revolution, now echo with a different kind of uncertainty. Over 100 days have passed since the Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus was installed as the head of an interim government in Bangladesh. Hopes of a democratic renaissance have given way to fear and disillusionment. What began as a popular uprising to depose Sheikh Hasina’s administration on August 5 this year has become a cautionary tale of unintended consequences.


Few anticipated the chaos that would follow. The Yunus-led government, far from steering Bangladesh towards stability, has presided over an alarming erosion of civil liberties. Media freedom has been one of the first casualties. No fewer than 25 editors face murder charges, and arrest warrants have been issued against 100 journalists. Even Shakib Al Hasan, a cricketing icon and former parliamentarian under Hasina’s rule, has been implicated in a murder case alongside 147 others, including the former prime minister herself. Sheikh Hasina now faces a staggering 253 cases, ranging from murder to corruption. This crackdown on political opponents and dissenting voices bears an eerie resemblance to the authoritarianism the revolution sought to overthrow.


The targeting of religious minorities has added another layer of despair. Hindus, who comprise about 9 percent of Bangladesh’s population, find themselves particularly vulnerable. “My father is 77 years old and runs a small shop,” says Zubair, a resident of Noakhali. “He’s facing a severe charge of rioting and murder simply because he allows Hindus to have tea at his shop.” Such accounts are common. In Noakhali, where Hindus once made up 20 percent of the population, fear has driven them indoors.


A documentary filmmaker who captured evidence of brutality against minorities during the power transition - 200 incidents in just four days - was forced to flee Bangladesh. His footage paints a grim picture of the anarchy that erupted after Hasina’s ouster. Transparency International Bangladesh estimates that over 600 people were killed and 10,000 injured in the first two weeks of Yunus’s tenure. Lynching, communal violence, and vigilante justice have become disturbingly routine.


Bangladesh’s internal turmoil has significant regional implications. Yunus’s government has cultivated ties with Pakistan, re-establishing maritime links, direct flights, and defence agreements while resolving long-standing issues from the 1971 War of Independence. Simultaneously, relations with India, Bangladesh’s largest neighbour and historical ally, have deteriorated. Anti-India rhetoric dominates public discourse, and incidents of disrespect toward Indian symbols have become alarmingly frequent. Even the British Parliament has expressed concern over the rising anti-Hindu sentiment.


Washington is watching closely. Former U.S. Commissioner for International Religious Freedom, Johnnie Moore, warned that President-elect Donald Trump is “deeply concerned” about the situation. Trump’s rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi adds a layer of complexity. During his campaign, Trump condemned the “barbaric violence” in Bangladesh, signalling a tougher stance ahead. His administration, set to take office in January, could press Yunus to rein in the radicals and restore order. Whether Yunus has the capacity, or the will to do so is another matter.


Despite its international posturing, Yunus’s administration seems increasingly unable to govern. Key decisions appear to be influenced by Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam. These groups have pushed through troubling changes, including the removal of Rabindranath Tagore and D.L. Roy from school curricula and proposals to alter the national anthem. Meanwhile, radical elements like Hizb-ut-Tahrir - an arm of the terrorist outfit ISIS - are reportedly active on college campuses.


The police, once a key instrument of state authority, have largely withdrawn. Branded as accomplices to Hasina’s alleged crimes, they are wary of taking decisive action. This paralysis has left ordinary citizens at the mercy of vigilantes and extremists.


Yunus’s initial dismissal of attacks on minorities as “vendetta politics” has only worsened the situation. His government’s admission of 88 communal violence cases targeting minorities is widely seen as an understatement. Transparency International’s findings suggest the true scale of the violence is much larger. Conflicting data from various government departments, with death tolls ranging from 872 to nearly 1,000, has further eroded public trust.


Bangladesh’s interim period was meant to be a bridge to stability, not a descent into chaos. The international community, particularly India and the United States, will play a pivotal role in shaping what comes next. Trump’s impending inauguration could mark a turning point, with potential diplomatic and economic pressure on Yunus to curb extremism and restore order. But as Bangladesh drifts further from its secular roots, questions remain about whether the interim government has the vision or capability to lead.


The promise of a freer, fairer Bangladesh has given way to a grim reality. If the first 100 days are any indication, the country faces an uphill battle to restore order, rebuild trust and protect its democratic values. The embers of freedom flicker weakly in Bangladesh today, overshadowed by the tyranny of a different kind. For now, the dream of a ‘new Bangladesh’ lies buried under the weight of its own contradictions.


(The author is a senior journalist based in Kolkata. Views personal.)

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