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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Absolute Returns v/s XIRR

When investors evaluate any investment, the first number they usually think of is the “profit”. What extra have we earned? Naturally, this feels exciting. But the important question is: does this number truly reflect how well your money has worked for you?


This is where investors must understand the difference between absolute returns and XIRR. This difference is important across asset classes - whether it is a stocks portfolio, mutual funds portfolio, insurance product, LIC plan, real estate, or any other investment product.


Absolute Returns

Absolute return is the simplest (hence, misleading) way of measuring profit. It only tells you how much your investment has grown compared to the amount invested.


For example, if you bought a property for ₹1 crore and its value became ₹2 crore, your absolute return is 100%. You invested ₹1 crore and made a profit of ₹1 crore.


But this number does not tell the full story. The more important question is: how much time did it take?


If the same property doubled in five years, it would be excellent. But if it doubled over ten years, the annual return is much lower. In fact, ₹1 crore becoming ₹2 crore over ten years roughly translates to around 7% annualised return. Suddenly, the same 100% absolute return does not look as impressive.


XIRR Importance

XIRR stands for Extended Internal Rate of Return. It measures the actual annualised return of your investment, especially when money is invested or withdrawn at different points of time.


In stocks, XIRR helps measure multiple buy and sell transactions. In mutual funds, it helps measure SIPs, lump sum investments, switches, and redemptions. In insurance and LIC plans, it helps understand the real return after considering premiums paid over the years and the maturity value. In real estate, it helps compare the final value with the purchase price, holding period, and multiple cash flows.


This happens very often in real life, across multiple asset classes - multiple entries and exits of money. In such cases, absolute return can become misleading because it ignores timing.


XIRR considers three important things: how much you invested, when you invested, and what the current value is. It gives a more realistic picture of how efficiently your money has grown.


Real Purpose

The real purpose is to beat inflation, grow net worth, create wealth, and achieve financial goals.


If inflation is around 6% to 7%, your investments should ideally generate returns above that. If we also consider lifestyle inflation, the required return may be even higher. Education, healthcare, housing, travel, and daily expenses are all becoming costlier over time.


Therefore, do not overestimate returns by looking only at absolute numbers. Absolute returns may make you feel good, but XIRR tells you the truth.


For your wealth creation journey, XIRR is one of the most important numbers to track. It tells you whether your money is truly working hard, whether your portfolio is beating inflation, and whether your financial plan is on the right track.


(The author is Chartered Accountant and CFA (USA). Financial advisor. Views personal. He could be reached on 9833133605)

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