top of page

By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

AIMIM’s Strategic Gamble

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Aaduddin Owaisi

Aaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), with its primary base in Telangana, is trimming its ambitions for the November 20 Assembly elections in Maharashtra by contesting only 16 seats, mainly Muslim-dominated pockets in Marathwada and elsewhere. This is a sharp drop from the 44 seats the party vied for in 2019, and even fewer than the 22 it targeted in 2014. Despite the seemingly defensive strategy, the AIMIM believes it may yet wield decisive influence in a contest marked by shifting allegiances and coalition uncertainties.


AIMIM’s tempered approach indicated that the party is now focused on ‘winnability,’ prioritizing a small selection of constituencies as opposed to broader expansion. This shift acknowledges a stark reality: AIMIM’s once-growing base in Maharashtra has seen a steep decline in fortunes, with the party losing high-stakes battles in recent years, including the crucial Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Lok Sabha seat (in Marathwada) in the Lok Sabha election this year.


However, AIMIM Maharashtra president Imtiaz Jaleel, the former MP from Sambhajinagar, appears undeterred at these reverses. He believes the party can secure between five and seven seats and potentially act as a ‘kingmaker’ in a splintered political field where the contest is now not limited to the ruling Mahayuti and opposition MVA coalitions, but is witnessing the entry of the ‘third front’ in form of the ‘Parivartan Mahashakti Aghadi’ – a ragbag coalition of smaller parties.


The state’s upcoming election is being contested amidst emerging alliances, the Maratha agitation, especially potent in Marathwada, and a general ideological confusion - factors that Jaleel contends create a favourable climate for AIMIM.


The AIMIM’s constituencies strategically target regions where the party sees potential to consolidate Dalit-Muslim votes.


To that end, AIMIM has fielded four Dalit candidates from reserved constituencies, aiming to coalesce Dalit and Muslim votes under its banner. AIMIM’s pitch highlights issues like mob lynching, minority rights, and religious freedom.


In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, the party had allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) - an alliance that helped Jaleel clinch the Aurangabad (as Sambhajinagar was formerly known) seat besides cannibalizing Congress-NCP votes in several seats.


The alliance soon unravelled. Despite this, Jaleel claims that AIMIM retains grassroots Dalit support, asserting that Dalit communities see AIMIM as a defender of constitutional values in a time of allegedly eroding rights.


The AIMIM’s slate spans several high-stakes constituencies: Malegaon and Dhule—where the party already holds seats—along with urban districts like Aurangabad and Nagpur, as well as Mumbai’s Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar and Byculla. Notably, Jaleel himself is contesting Aurangabad East.


In 2019, despite a modest tally of two seats, AIMIM demonstrated its ability to disrupt Maharashtra’s electoral landscape. Although it only claimed Malegaon Central and Dhule City, the party siphoned significant support away from the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided NCP in at least a dozen constituencies.


This dynamic has fuelled accusations from the opposition MVA and the INDIA bloc that AIMIM acts as a ‘BJP’s B team,’ allegedly dividing the minority vote. AIMIM’s pared-back candidate list is, in part, an attempt to shed this label. While AIMIM had explored a possible alliance with the Congress and NCP, Jaleel claims that overtures went unanswered, while Congress denied any formal approach on part of the former.

Will the 2024 Assembly election see the AIMIM live up to its reputation as a strategic disruptor?

Comments

bottom of page