AIMIM’s Strategic Gamble

Aaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), with its primary base in Telangana, is trimming its ambitions for the November 20 Assembly elections in Maharashtra by contesting only 16 seats, mainly Muslim-dominated pockets in Marathwada and elsewhere. This is a sharp drop from the 44 seats the party vied for in 2019, and even fewer than the 22 it targeted in 2014. Despite the seemingly defensive strategy, the AIMIM believes it may yet wield decisive influence in a contest marked by shifting allegiances and coalition uncertainties.

AIMIM’s tempered approach indicated that the party is now focused on ‘winnability,’ prioritizing a small selection of constituencies as opposed to broader expansion. This shift acknowledges a stark reality: AIMIM’s once-growing base in Maharashtra has seen a steep decline in fortunes, with the party losing high-stakes battles in recent years, including the crucial Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Lok Sabha seat (in Marathwada) in the Lok Sabha election this year.

However, AIMIM Maharashtra president Imtiaz Jaleel, the former MP from Sambhajinagar, appears undeterred at these reverses. He believes the party can secure between five and seven seats and potentially act as a ‘kingmaker’ in a splintered political field where the contest is now not limited to the ruling Mahayuti and opposition MVA coalitions, but is witnessing the entry of the ‘third front’ in form of the ‘Parivartan Mahashakti Aghadi’ – a ragbag coalition of smaller parties.

The state’s upcoming election is being contested amidst emerging alliances, the Maratha agitation, especially potent in Marathwada, and a general ideological confusion - factors that Jaleel contends create a favourable climate for AIMIM.

The AIMIM’s constituencies strategically target regions where the party sees potential to consolidate Dalit-Muslim votes.

To that end, AIMIM has fielded four Dalit candidates from reserved constituencies, aiming to coalesce Dalit and Muslim votes under its banner. AIMIM’s pitch highlights issues like mob lynching, minority rights, and religious freedom.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, the party had allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) - an alliance that helped Jaleel clinch the Aurangabad (as Sambhajinagar was formerly known) seat besides cannibalizing Congress-NCP votes in several seats.

The alliance soon unravelled. Despite this, Jaleel claims that AIMIM retains grassroots Dalit support, asserting that Dalit communities see AIMIM as a defender of constitutional values in a time of allegedly eroding rights.

The AIMIM’s slate spans several high-stakes constituencies: Malegaon and Dhule—where the party already holds seats—along with urban districts like Aurangabad and Nagpur, as well as Mumbai’s Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar and Byculla. Notably, Jaleel himself is contesting Aurangabad East.

In 2019, despite a modest tally of two seats, AIMIM demonstrated its ability to disrupt Maharashtra’s electoral landscape. Although it only claimed Malegaon Central and Dhule City, the party siphoned significant support away from the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided NCP in at least a dozen constituencies.

This dynamic has fuelled accusations from the opposition MVA and the INDIA bloc that AIMIM acts as a ‘BJP’s B team,’ allegedly dividing the minority vote. AIMIM’s pared-back candidate list is, in part, an attempt to shed this label. While AIMIM had explored a possible alliance with the Congress and NCP, Jaleel claims that overtures went unanswered, while Congress denied any formal approach on part of the former.

Will the 2024 Assembly election see the AIMIM live up to its reputation as a strategic disruptor?