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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

AIMIM’s Strategic Gamble

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Aaduddin Owaisi

Aaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), with its primary base in Telangana, is trimming its ambitions for the November 20 Assembly elections in Maharashtra by contesting only 16 seats, mainly Muslim-dominated pockets in Marathwada and elsewhere. This is a sharp drop from the 44 seats the party vied for in 2019, and even fewer than the 22 it targeted in 2014. Despite the seemingly defensive strategy, the AIMIM believes it may yet wield decisive influence in a contest marked by shifting allegiances and coalition uncertainties.


AIMIM’s tempered approach indicated that the party is now focused on ‘winnability,’ prioritizing a small selection of constituencies as opposed to broader expansion. This shift acknowledges a stark reality: AIMIM’s once-growing base in Maharashtra has seen a steep decline in fortunes, with the party losing high-stakes battles in recent years, including the crucial Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Lok Sabha seat (in Marathwada) in the Lok Sabha election this year.


However, AIMIM Maharashtra president Imtiaz Jaleel, the former MP from Sambhajinagar, appears undeterred at these reverses. He believes the party can secure between five and seven seats and potentially act as a ‘kingmaker’ in a splintered political field where the contest is now not limited to the ruling Mahayuti and opposition MVA coalitions, but is witnessing the entry of the ‘third front’ in form of the ‘Parivartan Mahashakti Aghadi’ – a ragbag coalition of smaller parties.


The state’s upcoming election is being contested amidst emerging alliances, the Maratha agitation, especially potent in Marathwada, and a general ideological confusion - factors that Jaleel contends create a favourable climate for AIMIM.


The AIMIM’s constituencies strategically target regions where the party sees potential to consolidate Dalit-Muslim votes.


To that end, AIMIM has fielded four Dalit candidates from reserved constituencies, aiming to coalesce Dalit and Muslim votes under its banner. AIMIM’s pitch highlights issues like mob lynching, minority rights, and religious freedom.


In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, the party had allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) - an alliance that helped Jaleel clinch the Aurangabad (as Sambhajinagar was formerly known) seat besides cannibalizing Congress-NCP votes in several seats.


The alliance soon unravelled. Despite this, Jaleel claims that AIMIM retains grassroots Dalit support, asserting that Dalit communities see AIMIM as a defender of constitutional values in a time of allegedly eroding rights.


The AIMIM’s slate spans several high-stakes constituencies: Malegaon and Dhule—where the party already holds seats—along with urban districts like Aurangabad and Nagpur, as well as Mumbai’s Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar and Byculla. Notably, Jaleel himself is contesting Aurangabad East.


In 2019, despite a modest tally of two seats, AIMIM demonstrated its ability to disrupt Maharashtra’s electoral landscape. Although it only claimed Malegaon Central and Dhule City, the party siphoned significant support away from the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided NCP in at least a dozen constituencies.


This dynamic has fuelled accusations from the opposition MVA and the INDIA bloc that AIMIM acts as a ‘BJP’s B team,’ allegedly dividing the minority vote. AIMIM’s pared-back candidate list is, in part, an attempt to shed this label. While AIMIM had explored a possible alliance with the Congress and NCP, Jaleel claims that overtures went unanswered, while Congress denied any formal approach on part of the former.

Will the 2024 Assembly election see the AIMIM live up to its reputation as a strategic disruptor?

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