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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

AIMIM’s Strategic Gamble

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Aaduddin Owaisi

Aaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), with its primary base in Telangana, is trimming its ambitions for the November 20 Assembly elections in Maharashtra by contesting only 16 seats, mainly Muslim-dominated pockets in Marathwada and elsewhere. This is a sharp drop from the 44 seats the party vied for in 2019, and even fewer than the 22 it targeted in 2014. Despite the seemingly defensive strategy, the AIMIM believes it may yet wield decisive influence in a contest marked by shifting allegiances and coalition uncertainties.


AIMIM’s tempered approach indicated that the party is now focused on ‘winnability,’ prioritizing a small selection of constituencies as opposed to broader expansion. This shift acknowledges a stark reality: AIMIM’s once-growing base in Maharashtra has seen a steep decline in fortunes, with the party losing high-stakes battles in recent years, including the crucial Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Lok Sabha seat (in Marathwada) in the Lok Sabha election this year.


However, AIMIM Maharashtra president Imtiaz Jaleel, the former MP from Sambhajinagar, appears undeterred at these reverses. He believes the party can secure between five and seven seats and potentially act as a ‘kingmaker’ in a splintered political field where the contest is now not limited to the ruling Mahayuti and opposition MVA coalitions, but is witnessing the entry of the ‘third front’ in form of the ‘Parivartan Mahashakti Aghadi’ – a ragbag coalition of smaller parties.


The state’s upcoming election is being contested amidst emerging alliances, the Maratha agitation, especially potent in Marathwada, and a general ideological confusion - factors that Jaleel contends create a favourable climate for AIMIM.


The AIMIM’s constituencies strategically target regions where the party sees potential to consolidate Dalit-Muslim votes.


To that end, AIMIM has fielded four Dalit candidates from reserved constituencies, aiming to coalesce Dalit and Muslim votes under its banner. AIMIM’s pitch highlights issues like mob lynching, minority rights, and religious freedom.


In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, the party had allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) - an alliance that helped Jaleel clinch the Aurangabad (as Sambhajinagar was formerly known) seat besides cannibalizing Congress-NCP votes in several seats.


The alliance soon unravelled. Despite this, Jaleel claims that AIMIM retains grassroots Dalit support, asserting that Dalit communities see AIMIM as a defender of constitutional values in a time of allegedly eroding rights.


The AIMIM’s slate spans several high-stakes constituencies: Malegaon and Dhule—where the party already holds seats—along with urban districts like Aurangabad and Nagpur, as well as Mumbai’s Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar and Byculla. Notably, Jaleel himself is contesting Aurangabad East.


In 2019, despite a modest tally of two seats, AIMIM demonstrated its ability to disrupt Maharashtra’s electoral landscape. Although it only claimed Malegaon Central and Dhule City, the party siphoned significant support away from the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided NCP in at least a dozen constituencies.


This dynamic has fuelled accusations from the opposition MVA and the INDIA bloc that AIMIM acts as a ‘BJP’s B team,’ allegedly dividing the minority vote. AIMIM’s pared-back candidate list is, in part, an attempt to shed this label. While AIMIM had explored a possible alliance with the Congress and NCP, Jaleel claims that overtures went unanswered, while Congress denied any formal approach on part of the former.

Will the 2024 Assembly election see the AIMIM live up to its reputation as a strategic disruptor?

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