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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Amravati’s Allegiance Anarchy

Amravati

With barely 48 hours left before Maharashtra heads to the polls, the poll drama and chaos in the Assembly segments in Amravati district in western Vidarbha seems to be far from over.


The shifting of allegiances has never been more intense – or confusing – than in Amravati, traditionally a Congress stronghold. This segment will see a high-stakes contest on November 20 between Sulbha Khodke, the former Congress MLA now aligned with Ajit Pawar’s ruling Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and two familiar rivals: Sunil Deshmukh of the Congress who is running as the MVA’s candidate, and Jagdish Gupta, a former BJP leader now contesting as an independent.


A month ago, the miffed Congress high command, aware of Khodke’s dalliance with the NCP, had expelled her for anti-party activities. In the last election, Khodke defeated Sunil Deshmukh (then BJP) by over 18,000 votes. Now with Khodke turning her coat, the Congress will be keen to wrest back this seat. With Deshmukh returning to Congress after a 15-yearyear hiatus and a renewed focus on caste-based mobilization, the contest promises to be a fiercely fought one.


The situation is complicated by the presence of Gupta, who is running as an independent after leaving the BJP. Gupta’s decision to contest as an independent adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the race, as he brings with him a significant political following from his time in the BJP. The division of anti-establishment votes could be decisive, with Gupta positioning himself as an alternative to both the BJP and Congress.


Congress’s strategy in Amravati is to lean on its traditional strength which is its deep network of loyalists and activists. The party’s candidates, including former women and child development minister Yashomati Thakur, have substantial local clout. Thakur’s dominance in the Teosa Assembly segment, her stronghold, makes her candidacy a prestige battle for the party (and the MVA).


She has won the seat in successive elections since 2009, fending off challenges even during the Modi wave of 2014. Yet, in the current climate, her position is far from secure. BJP’s candidate Rajesh Wankhade, a former Shiv Sena man, is an experienced challenger, and his move to the BJP has strengthened his position. Congress will need to overcome internal divisions and ensure voter turnout to hold on to this vital seat.


Amravati’s political contest is, at its core, a battle over caste and community dynamics. The constituency is largely rural, with significant representation from the Kunbi, Mali, and Muslim communities. These voters, combined with the Dhangar and Teli communities, represent a broad cross-section of the electorate, and their voting behavior will be crucial in determining the outcome.


For Congress, the key to victory in Amravati and other segments will be its ability to woo the Kunbi and Muslim voters. The BJP’s success will depend not just on its ability to retain urban support but also on its appeal to rural voters, particularly those from the Teli and Dhangar communities.


No campaign in Amravati is complete without a touch of drama on part of the Rana family. This was supplied in due part by BJP leader and former MP Navneet Rana, whose campaign event for Yuva Swabhiman Party candidate for the Daryapur seat, Ramesh Bundile, was marred by violence.


Chairs were thrown at Rana after she finished speaking, promoting her to file a police complaint alleging that individuals from a particular community had disrupted the rally. The episode was symptomatic of the heightened emotions surrounding contests in Amravati, where the stakes are high, and the political climate is boiling despite the winter season.

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