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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Amravati’s Allegiance Anarchy

Amravati

With barely 48 hours left before Maharashtra heads to the polls, the poll drama and chaos in the Assembly segments in Amravati district in western Vidarbha seems to be far from over.


The shifting of allegiances has never been more intense – or confusing – than in Amravati, traditionally a Congress stronghold. This segment will see a high-stakes contest on November 20 between Sulbha Khodke, the former Congress MLA now aligned with Ajit Pawar’s ruling Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and two familiar rivals: Sunil Deshmukh of the Congress who is running as the MVA’s candidate, and Jagdish Gupta, a former BJP leader now contesting as an independent.


A month ago, the miffed Congress high command, aware of Khodke’s dalliance with the NCP, had expelled her for anti-party activities. In the last election, Khodke defeated Sunil Deshmukh (then BJP) by over 18,000 votes. Now with Khodke turning her coat, the Congress will be keen to wrest back this seat. With Deshmukh returning to Congress after a 15-yearyear hiatus and a renewed focus on caste-based mobilization, the contest promises to be a fiercely fought one.


The situation is complicated by the presence of Gupta, who is running as an independent after leaving the BJP. Gupta’s decision to contest as an independent adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the race, as he brings with him a significant political following from his time in the BJP. The division of anti-establishment votes could be decisive, with Gupta positioning himself as an alternative to both the BJP and Congress.


Congress’s strategy in Amravati is to lean on its traditional strength which is its deep network of loyalists and activists. The party’s candidates, including former women and child development minister Yashomati Thakur, have substantial local clout. Thakur’s dominance in the Teosa Assembly segment, her stronghold, makes her candidacy a prestige battle for the party (and the MVA).


She has won the seat in successive elections since 2009, fending off challenges even during the Modi wave of 2014. Yet, in the current climate, her position is far from secure. BJP’s candidate Rajesh Wankhade, a former Shiv Sena man, is an experienced challenger, and his move to the BJP has strengthened his position. Congress will need to overcome internal divisions and ensure voter turnout to hold on to this vital seat.


Amravati’s political contest is, at its core, a battle over caste and community dynamics. The constituency is largely rural, with significant representation from the Kunbi, Mali, and Muslim communities. These voters, combined with the Dhangar and Teli communities, represent a broad cross-section of the electorate, and their voting behavior will be crucial in determining the outcome.


For Congress, the key to victory in Amravati and other segments will be its ability to woo the Kunbi and Muslim voters. The BJP’s success will depend not just on its ability to retain urban support but also on its appeal to rural voters, particularly those from the Teli and Dhangar communities.


No campaign in Amravati is complete without a touch of drama on part of the Rana family. This was supplied in due part by BJP leader and former MP Navneet Rana, whose campaign event for Yuva Swabhiman Party candidate for the Daryapur seat, Ramesh Bundile, was marred by violence.


Chairs were thrown at Rana after she finished speaking, promoting her to file a police complaint alleging that individuals from a particular community had disrupted the rally. The episode was symptomatic of the heightened emotions surrounding contests in Amravati, where the stakes are high, and the political climate is boiling despite the winter season.

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