With barely 48 hours left before Maharashtra heads to the polls, the poll drama and chaos in the Assembly segments in Amravati district in western Vidarbha seems to be far from over.
The shifting of allegiances has never been more intense – or confusing – than in Amravati, traditionally a Congress stronghold. This segment will see a high-stakes contest on November 20 between Sulbha Khodke, the former Congress MLA now aligned with Ajit Pawar’s ruling Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and two familiar rivals: Sunil Deshmukh of the Congress who is running as the MVA’s candidate, and Jagdish Gupta, a former BJP leader now contesting as an independent.
A month ago, the miffed Congress high command, aware of Khodke’s dalliance with the NCP, had expelled her for anti-party activities. In the last election, Khodke defeated Sunil Deshmukh (then BJP) by over 18,000 votes. Now with Khodke turning her coat, the Congress will be keen to wrest back this seat. With Deshmukh returning to Congress after a 15-yearyear hiatus and a renewed focus on caste-based mobilization, the contest promises to be a fiercely fought one.
The situation is complicated by the presence of Gupta, who is running as an independent after leaving the BJP. Gupta’s decision to contest as an independent adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the race, as he brings with him a significant political following from his time in the BJP. The division of anti-establishment votes could be decisive, with Gupta positioning himself as an alternative to both the BJP and Congress.
Congress’s strategy in Amravati is to lean on its traditional strength which is its deep network of loyalists and activists. The party’s candidates, including former women and child development minister Yashomati Thakur, have substantial local clout. Thakur’s dominance in the Teosa Assembly segment, her stronghold, makes her candidacy a prestige battle for the party (and the MVA).
She has won the seat in successive elections since 2009, fending off challenges even during the Modi wave of 2014. Yet, in the current climate, her position is far from secure. BJP’s candidate Rajesh Wankhade, a former Shiv Sena man, is an experienced challenger, and his move to the BJP has strengthened his position. Congress will need to overcome internal divisions and ensure voter turnout to hold on to this vital seat.
Amravati’s political contest is, at its core, a battle over caste and community dynamics. The constituency is largely rural, with significant representation from the Kunbi, Mali, and Muslim communities. These voters, combined with the Dhangar and Teli communities, represent a broad cross-section of the electorate, and their voting behavior will be crucial in determining the outcome.
For Congress, the key to victory in Amravati and other segments will be its ability to woo the Kunbi and Muslim voters. The BJP’s success will depend not just on its ability to retain urban support but also on its appeal to rural voters, particularly those from the Teli and Dhangar communities.
No campaign in Amravati is complete without a touch of drama on part of the Rana family. This was supplied in due part by BJP leader and former MP Navneet Rana, whose campaign event for Yuva Swabhiman Party candidate for the Daryapur seat, Ramesh Bundile, was marred by violence.
Chairs were thrown at Rana after she finished speaking, promoting her to file a police complaint alleging that individuals from a particular community had disrupted the rally. The episode was symptomatic of the heightened emotions surrounding contests in Amravati, where the stakes are high, and the political climate is boiling despite the winter season.
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