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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Amravati’s Allegiance Anarchy

Amravati

With barely 48 hours left before Maharashtra heads to the polls, the poll drama and chaos in the Assembly segments in Amravati district in western Vidarbha seems to be far from over.


The shifting of allegiances has never been more intense – or confusing – than in Amravati, traditionally a Congress stronghold. This segment will see a high-stakes contest on November 20 between Sulbha Khodke, the former Congress MLA now aligned with Ajit Pawar’s ruling Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and two familiar rivals: Sunil Deshmukh of the Congress who is running as the MVA’s candidate, and Jagdish Gupta, a former BJP leader now contesting as an independent.


A month ago, the miffed Congress high command, aware of Khodke’s dalliance with the NCP, had expelled her for anti-party activities. In the last election, Khodke defeated Sunil Deshmukh (then BJP) by over 18,000 votes. Now with Khodke turning her coat, the Congress will be keen to wrest back this seat. With Deshmukh returning to Congress after a 15-yearyear hiatus and a renewed focus on caste-based mobilization, the contest promises to be a fiercely fought one.


The situation is complicated by the presence of Gupta, who is running as an independent after leaving the BJP. Gupta’s decision to contest as an independent adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the race, as he brings with him a significant political following from his time in the BJP. The division of anti-establishment votes could be decisive, with Gupta positioning himself as an alternative to both the BJP and Congress.


Congress’s strategy in Amravati is to lean on its traditional strength which is its deep network of loyalists and activists. The party’s candidates, including former women and child development minister Yashomati Thakur, have substantial local clout. Thakur’s dominance in the Teosa Assembly segment, her stronghold, makes her candidacy a prestige battle for the party (and the MVA).


She has won the seat in successive elections since 2009, fending off challenges even during the Modi wave of 2014. Yet, in the current climate, her position is far from secure. BJP’s candidate Rajesh Wankhade, a former Shiv Sena man, is an experienced challenger, and his move to the BJP has strengthened his position. Congress will need to overcome internal divisions and ensure voter turnout to hold on to this vital seat.


Amravati’s political contest is, at its core, a battle over caste and community dynamics. The constituency is largely rural, with significant representation from the Kunbi, Mali, and Muslim communities. These voters, combined with the Dhangar and Teli communities, represent a broad cross-section of the electorate, and their voting behavior will be crucial in determining the outcome.


For Congress, the key to victory in Amravati and other segments will be its ability to woo the Kunbi and Muslim voters. The BJP’s success will depend not just on its ability to retain urban support but also on its appeal to rural voters, particularly those from the Teli and Dhangar communities.


No campaign in Amravati is complete without a touch of drama on part of the Rana family. This was supplied in due part by BJP leader and former MP Navneet Rana, whose campaign event for Yuva Swabhiman Party candidate for the Daryapur seat, Ramesh Bundile, was marred by violence.


Chairs were thrown at Rana after she finished speaking, promoting her to file a police complaint alleging that individuals from a particular community had disrupted the rally. The episode was symptomatic of the heightened emotions surrounding contests in Amravati, where the stakes are high, and the political climate is boiling despite the winter season.

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