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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

An Urban Showdown

In Pune’s well-heeled Kothrud constituency, a triangular contest is brewing ahead of the November 20 Maharashtra Assembly elections. With traffic snarls, infrastructure gaps, and competing claims of development, the race for Kothrud’s assembly seat is set to be a high-stakes contest.


The battle for Kothrud is essentially a reflection of the larger tension between political promises and the practical demands of urban governance.


Chandrakant Patil, the sitting BJP minister and candidate, faces serious challenges from both the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Once a BJP stronghold, Kothrud has witnessed dramatic shifts over the years—none more significant than Patil’s controversial rise to the seat in 2019. Despite being considered an ‘outsider’ from Kolhapur, Patil triumphed over the MNS’s Kishor Shinde by a comfortable margin, thanks in part to his party’s well-oiled election machine and a divided opposition. This time around, however, Patil, a former Maharashtra BJP president, may find the going tougher.


For Chandrakant Mokate, the Sena (UBT) nominee, this election is a homecoming of sorts. A former MLA from Kothrud, Mokate, who represented the constituency until 2014, believes his deep roots in the area will resonate with voters who feel disconnected from the present administration.


Kothrud is a constituency in crisis. While the region boasts some of Pune’s most sought-after real estate, including the upscale areas of Baner, Pashan, and Balewadi, its infrastructure is sorely lacking.

The area’s roads are perpetually clogged, and footpaths are almost non-existent in many stretches, leaving pedestrians to risk life and limb on busy thoroughfares. With frequent roadworks for utilities and delayed construction projects, local residents are increasingly frustrated.


Take, for example, the Baner Pashan Link Road and Paud Road - both notorious for frequent traffic jams. The district’s ongoing struggles with garbage management also reflect deeper systemic issues.

Despite a shift in the garbage depot from Kothrud several years ago, residents complain of chronic sanitation problems.


Amid these frustrations, BJP’s Patil is staking his claim on the state government’s track record, touting welfare schemes that have been implemented across Maharashtra. As his strongest rival, Mokate is not so easily swayed. The former MLA asserts that a focus on basic infrastructure and development is needed before voters will return to the BJP fold.


Not to be outdone, MNS’s Kishor Shinde - re-nominated after his previous defeat - has made civic issues his central plank. Having served as a corporator in the Pune Municipal Corporation, Shinde claims the pace of development in Kothrud has been haphazard and poorly managed.

Encroachments and unchecked growth are major issues that need urgent attention, Shinde argues, positioning himself as the candidate of reform.


The contest, however, is not just about infrastructure. Kothrud’s voters, many of whom are upper-caste Brahmins, have long leaned towards pro-Hindutva politics. In a constituency where saffron support runs deep, all three contenders - Patil, Mokate, and Shinde - are competing for the same ideological ground.

As the election approaches, the pressure on Patil is mounting. Once seen as the BJP’s golden boy, he now faces a tough task of managing a city that is still grappling with its growing pains.

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