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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Angry Young Men: Half Baked Story

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Angry Young Men: Half Baked Story

When the teaser of “Angry Young Men” appeared on Prime Video, there was a strong urge to watch the documentary series. The teaser features various celebrities talking about the iconic duo Salim-Javed, along with the duo themselves discussing their work. It also includes film clips from Amitabh Bachchan’s movies, like the famous dialogue, “Main aaj bhi pheke hue paise nahi uthata.” For those who lived through the golden era of Bachchan, this series is a must-watch.

“Angry Young Men” is a new three-part documentary series on Amazon Prime, directed by Namrata Rao.

As I watched it, I couldn’t help but feel that it’s like a half-baked cake. You enjoy watching the process and wait eagerly for the final outcome, but when you finally get to taste it, it’s not fully done. That was my reaction.

However, despite this, it’s definitely a one-time watch for film buffs like us. I won’t go into all the details of each film or what people said but will focus on the specific elements and incidents that people are more interested in.

Let’s start with the good parts:

Salim-Javed, who came from well-off families in Indore and Gwalior, respectively, arrived in Mumbai to pursue their dreams. They worked hard, often going hungry, facing disagreements and failures, but they never thought of giving up. The two accidentally met on the set of the film Sarhadi Lootera. Salim Khan was a small-time actor, and Sarhadi Lootera was one of the last films he acted in before he turned his focus to writing. Javed Akhtar was a clapper boy for the film and was later made the dialogue writer.

This marked the beginning of their bond.

Both Salim and Javed were outsiders in the film industry, but they shared the same zeal to do something different. They both had a natural flair for writing and storytelling, but unfortunately, they had to take up other jobs to earn money. But as they say, if you love your work, there’s always light at the end of the tunnel. The same happened with them when they got their first film Andaz, and the rest is history.

Now, let’s discuss the shortcomings:

The film industry owes Amitabh Bachchan’s rise to Salim-Javed. Without Zanjeer, the industry might not have had the ultimate superstar, and the story behind this casting is fascinating. However, the documentary fails to delve into the details of Amitabh’s journey during that period. It would have been insightful to know the director’s approach, how Salim-Javed convinced Prakash Mehra, and why he agreed to cast Bachchan. This story is significant because the success of Zanjeer not only elevated

Amitabh but also cemented Salim-Javed’s legacy. The documentary misses out on these crucial firsts in their careers.

When Zanjeer happened and the industry went crazy for Amitabh and Salim-Javed, how were those days? Did anything change in the way they were treated? The series could have explored these aspects more widely.

Both Sholay and Deewar were released in the same year, and both films are iconic. They firmly established Amitabh as the “angry young man. While Deewar won all the awards and Sholay missed out, the series mentions this but doesn’t provide enough insight into what was happening during the shooting of these films. What were the actors’ perspectives? There must have been many interesting incidents during that time that could have been discussed.

One of the best movies, Shakti, was not even discussed, which makes the series feel incomplete. Shakti is one of Amitabh’s finest performances, where he stood his ground against the legendary Dilip Kumar, despite having limited scope in the film. This should have been elaborated on and discussed in depth.

The series also lacks discussion about the relationship between Salim-Javed and various actors. This aspect could have been explored more. Additionally, the documentary fails to address the specific roles each of them played in their work. Sharing their experiences regarding dialogue writing and screenplay would have been very interesting.

The most important part missing from the documentary is the reason behind Salim-Javed’s split. While the family members and industry insiders talk about it, the duo themselves don’t say much. The series doesn’t delve into how the industry reacted post-split, whether any stars approached them, who those stars were, and what their reactions were. No one took the initiative to address the split, and the documentary doesn’t explain why.

Despite these gaps, the series will resonate with the 70s-80s generation, as they experienced those days firsthand and enjoyed them. For the younger generation, this series should serve as a reference book, showcasing the struggles of Salim-Javed, the history they created, and, most importantly, their brilliance. They were absolute geniuses who crafted some of the best movie dialogues and scenes ever.

That’s why they were paid more than Amitabh Bachchan himself for the film Dostana—such was the power of Salim-Javed.


(The writer is a communication professional. Views personal)

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