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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Art market in a 'crazy boom'

  • PTI
  • Mar 22, 2025
  • 3 min read

MF Husain's 'Gram Yatra' sold for record shattering Rs 118 crore

New Delhi: The record-breaking auction of legendary painter MF Husain's work has thrilled gallerists, art collectors and emerging artists alike, as excitement grows over the "crazy boom" in the art market and the much-awaited entry of Indian artworks into the 100-crore club.


Husain's Untitled (Gram Yatra), billed as one of his most important and sizable works from the 1950s, went for USD 13.8 million (over Rs 118 crore) at a Christie's auction in New York on March 19, setting the new record for the most expensive work of modern Indian art.


The artwork, according to industry sources, is bought by Indian art collector and philanthropist Kiran Nadar. However, the Kiran Nadar Museum of Art (KNMA), where Nadar is a trustee, has declined to comment on the acquisition.


The milestone event has sparked widespread enthusiasm across the art community, some even calling it as a transformative moment for Indian art on the global stage.


“It is an absolute delight to see this world record being achieved for M F Hussain, this was long overdue and the world is finally waking up to the glory of Indian talent. For many years now from the modern and even contemporaries, there's so much talent that's emerging that had not previously found a world stage.


"With this milestone, we would bring attention to what can be achieved with talent that is present in the land of India, M F Hussain has been at the forefront of attention," said Arjun Sawhney, avid art collector and co-founder of Delhi-based Gallery Pristine Contemporary.


Pooja Singhal, founder of Pichvai Tradition & Beyond, echoed Sawhney's sentiments and said the art market is going through a crazy boom, reminiscent of the period between 2000 and 2008, when the sales peaked in 2006 and 2008.


Similarly, buoyed by the over-118-crore sale of Husain's masterpiece, Mohit Jain of the Dhoomimal Art Centre said the staggering figure would undoubtedly impact the market—and the Indian art scene as a whole—which he believed is on an upward trend.


"Fortunately, since 2005, the Indian art market has seen a very positive trend and will continue so. This will also attract new collectors globally, where they can trust Indian Modern Art and also get inspired to acquire. But, I believe the effect of this figure will still be limited to the era, the strength, the subject and the size of each artist," he explained.


Comprising 13 unique panels spanning nearly 14 feet on a single canvas, "Gram Yatra" - meaning 'village pilgrimage' - is widely regarded as a cornerstone of Husain's oeuvre. The work celebrates the diversity and dynamism of a newly independent nation.


The momentous sale nearly doubled the previous record-holder, Amrita Sher-Gil's 1937 "The Story Teller", which fetched around USD 7.4 million (Rs 61.8 crore) at an auction in Mumbai in 2023.


The 1954 painting, which left India the same year, remained largely unseen since its acquisition by the Ukrainian-born Norway-based doctor Leon Elias Volodarsky, who was in Delhi to establish a thoracic surgery training centre for the World Health Organization (WHO).


Volodarsky bequeathed the painting to Oslo University Hospital in 1964. The sale proceeds will support the training of future generations of doctors at the institution.


Born on September 17, 1915 in Pandharpur in Maharashtra, Husain remains one of India's most important and sought after artists whose oeuvre inspires art and conversations across the globe.

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