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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran...

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran conflict has triggered a global oil crisis that now threatens to plunge the world into recessionary depths. On the tenth day of the war, the International Monetary Fund has urged policymakers worldwide to brace for the fallout, evoking fears of a supply shock dwarfing the 1970s oil embargo. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has stranded around 200 oil tankers at sea, including 37 Indian vessels, crippling a route that carries 22% of global oil shipments. India sources nearly 50% of its crude oil and LNG through this vital passage, heightening risks to its energy security. Crude prices have skyrocketed to $116 per barrel by day ten, a 60% leap from $72–73 on February 28, when markets were sliding. Attacks on energy infrastructure have exacerbated the chaos: Iran deployed drones against oil and gas facilities, refineries, and storage in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iraq, targeting major refineries in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which are key global export hubs. Israel retaliated by striking Iranian oil depots. Anticipating the growing dangers of war, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have reduced production in certain oil fields. Recession Warnings Mount Amid soaring oil prices, Scotland-based Wood Mackenzie has warned of a global recession stemming from this war. Its report asserts that if the conflict persists for 15 days, the world economy could slide into a great depression, driven primarily by an oil crisis eclipsing the 1970s shock, and echoes of 1929 haunt the markets. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that if oil prices rise by around 10% throughout the year and hold steady, global inflation could climb by about 0.4%. She added that world output might decline by 0.1 to 0.2% as a result. Rising oil and gas prices tend to have the most profound impact on the global economy. Price Pressures Fuel prices have spiked globally: 14% in the US, 6% in Britain, 15% in Australia, 10% in South Korea and China, 20% in Pakistan (petrol at 321 PKR per litre), 22% in the Maldives, and 15% in Sri Lanka, but have increased only by Rs 60 for domestic Indian consumers. If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period, petrol and diesel prices in the country could rise by 5–6 rupees per litre. Higher oil costs will inflate freight charges for goods, directly impacting everything from food prices to industrial output. Geopolitical Shadows Energy experts foresee prices hitting $150–200 per barrel if the war drags on, amplifying inflation and economic strain. India's Finance Ministry voiced concerns in its monthly review meeting but highlighted ample forex reserves as a buffer. Unanswered questions loom: how long can Iran sustain the fight? Will Gulf states stay neutral? Are Russia and China seeking to prolong this war through indirect support? China has deployed its spy warship to the Arabian Sea, positioning it perilously close to the conflict zone. Beijing remains continuously linked to Iran through its rail–road corridor. India's prudent stockpiling and non-aligned stance, echoing its Ukraine playbook of pushing peace over partisanship, position it as a beacon of stability. While the world teeters, New Delhi is focused on energy security and citizen welfare.

Back with a bang!

Updated: Nov 25, 2024

Devendra Fadnavis

Mumbai: Devendra Fadnavis’s resurgence in the Maharashtra assembly elections of 2024 is a fascinating political narrative, marked by strategic acumen, grassroots mobilization, and a keen understanding of the electorate’s pulse. His war-cry of ‘Mi Punha Yein’ (I shall be back) turned into a joke after the Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray backstabbed him in 2019. Later he was ridiculed by likes of Supriya Sule who said ‘Akela Devendra Kya Karega’ while underestimating him when he became the lea deader of opposition in 2019. From that point to the triumphant return today underscores his resilience and political savvy.


Also, even after he managed to form the Mahayuti government in 2022, the alliance put up a very poor show in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. Fadnavis took the whole responsibility on his shoulders and said we shall go to people and win their faith. He proved his words in a span of just five months and underlined his mantle once again.


In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, Fadnavis faced a significant political blow when the Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, broke away from the pre-poll alliance with the BJP. This led to the formation of MVA government, comprising the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Congress, sidelining Fadnavis and the BJP. Despite this setback, Fadnavis remained a prominent figure in Maharashtra politics, serving as the Deputy Chief Minister in the subsequent BJP-led government formed after the split within the Shiv Sena.


Fadnavis's comeback in the 2024 elections can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, his ability to maintain a strong connection with the grassroots and his constituency in Nagpur played a crucial role. His consistent engagement with the electorate, addressing local issues, and ensuring development projects kept him in good stead with the voters.


Secondly, Fadnavis's strategic alliances were pivotal. The BJP's coalition with the Shiv Sena and the NCP under the Mahayuti alliance proved to be a masterstroke. This alliance not only consolidated the pro-incumbency vote but also expanded the BJP's reach across different voter bases. The alliance could do this because Fadnavis instilled the concept of collective leadership within the party as well as the government. This helped the Mahayuti alliance to come forth as a united force.


The increased voter turnout in the 2024 elections was another significant factor. Fadnavis attributed this to the pro-incumbency sentiment and the impact of welfare schemes like the Ladki Bahin scheme, which aimed at empowering women and garnered substantial support from female voters. The higher voter turnout was seen as a positive indicator of public support for the BJP-led alliance.


Fadnavis's leadership style also contributed to his resurgence. Known for his articulate and pragmatic approach, he effectively communicated the achievements of the BJP-led government and countered the opposition's narrative. His ability to navigate the complex political landscape of Maharashtra, marked by factionalism and shifting alliances, showcased his political dexterity.


The election results reflected Fadnavis's successful strategy. The Mahayuti alliance secured a decisive victory, winning a significant number of seats and surpassing the majority mark in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly. This victory not only reinstated Fadnavis as a key political player but also positioned him as a potential candidate for the Chief Minister's post.

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