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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Behind Every Stock Is A Company

Peter Lynch, one of the greatest fund managers in history, gave investors a timeless reminder:


“Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.”


This simple line captures the entire philosophy of sensible investing. Today, when stock prices change every second and social media glorifies quick trading profits, many investors forget the basic truth that a stock is not just a ticker symbol on a screen. It is a real business. When you buy a share, you are buying a slice of that business - its strengths, weaknesses, future potential, and risks.


Unfortunately, too many investors look for shortcuts. They chase “sure-shot tips,” buy stocks trending on social media, and expect overnight returns. But wealth creation in equities has never worked that way. True investors know that long-term wealth is built by understanding businesses, not by predicting short-term price movements. Here are four fundamental principles every investor must remember while investing in stocks:


1. How the industry works

Every industry has its own story. Banks earn money differently from FMCG companies; IT companies grow differently from pharmaceutical companies. Before investing, spend time understanding the sector. What drives growth? Who are the competitors? What are the risks? This knowledge helps set realistic expectations and prevents panic during temporary downturns.


2. Study the company’s business

A company with strong fundamentals and business model can survive tough times and thrive during good periods. Go through annual reports, quarterly results, and investor presentations. Track important financial ratios.

Understanding the business model is equally important. How does the company earn money? Can it grow for the next 10–15 years? Does it have a competitive advantage? These questions help identify companies with long-term potential.


3. Think of it as co-ownership

The biggest mindset shift happens when an investor starts thinking like an owner. If you owned a restaurant, you would not worry about its valuation every minute - you would focus on service, quality, and long-term growth. Similarly, when you buy a stock, treat it like co-owning a business. This perspective automatically encourages patience. You stop reacting to daily volatility and start focusing on fundamentals.


4. Stocks are not lottery tickets

The stock market rewards discipline, not desperation. Quick profits may appear attractive, but they rarely build generational wealth. Compounding works only when you stay invested over long periods. As Warren Buffett says, the stock market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. Shortcuts, tips, and rumours might give temporary excitement, but they often end in losses. Sustainable wealth is created by investing in solid businesses and allowing time to do its magic. Think like a true investor - not a gambler. Equity investing is not about timing the market. It is about spending time in the market.


(The author is a Chartered Accountant and CFA (USA). Financial Advisor. Views personal. He could be reached on 9833133605.)

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