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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

BEOS Profiling: When the Brain Reveals More

A non-invasive scan that reads brainwaves to reveal whether a suspect lived the crime or merely heard about it.

Brain Electrical Oscillation Signature (BEOS) profiling is an advanced, non-invasive forensic psychological investigative technique that analyses the neurological signatures of suspects to detect experiential knowledge related to a crime. Unlike traditional lie detection methods that rely on physiological responses such as respiration rate, galvanic skin response (GSR), or heart rate, BEOS focuses on brainwave patterns. It uses auditory or visual stimuli connected to the crime to trigger autobiographical memory, assessing whether the individual has directly experienced the event.


The technique was developed by Dr. C.R. Mukundan, a neuroscientist and former head of clinical psychology at the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS), Bangalore. BEOS has since been used in numerous forensic investigations across India as a supplementary tool for assessing a suspect’s role in criminal cases. A key figure in advancing and applying this technology is Prof. Dr. Asha Srivastava, a prominent forensic psychologist and currently the Dean of Behavioural Forensics at the National Forensic Sciences University (NFSU), Gandhinagar. Her work has contributed significantly to the practical implementation and academic understanding of BEOS in forensic investigations.


BEOS has been instrumental in both convictions and acquittals. In the 2008 Pune murder case of Udit Bharati, BEOS testing of Aditi Sharma revealed experiential knowledge of poisoning the victim, supporting the prosecution and contributing to her conviction.


In contrast, a 2018 POCSO case in Ahmedabad demonstrated BEOS’s role in revealing possible innocence. A municipal school teacher was accused of raping a minor, but BEOS results showed no experiential knowledge of the crime. Instead, the profiling revealed sequential knowledge, indicating he was possibly falsely implicated. Supporting the findings were inconsistent victim statements, a lack of corroboration from classmates, and a constable’s observation that the child was coached by her family. Polygraph and narcoanalysis also indicated innocence. The court granted conditional bail, with Justice J.B. Pardiwala recognising the scientific input as vital in preventing injustice based on unverified allegations.


Another major case involving BEOS was the Abdul Karim Telgi stamp paper scam, one of India’s biggest financial frauds. BEOS was used to evaluate Telgi’s brain responses during questioning, helping investigators assess his experiential knowledge of the counterfeit operation.


Despite its usefulness, BEOS has raised legal and ethical concerns. In the 2010 Supreme Court case Selvi & Ors v. State of Karnataka, it was ruled that no one can be forced to undergo self-incriminating tests, as it would violate Article 20(3) of the Indian Constitution, which guarantees the right against self-incrimination. BEOS falls under this protection. However, the court allowed its use if a suspect consents voluntarily, without coercion or inducement. Even then, test results are only corroborative evidence, not standalone proof, unless they lead to discovering new facts or material evidence.


BEOS is actively used by Indian forensic institutions like the Directorate of Forensic Science Service (DFSS), State FSLs, and National Forensic Sciences University (NFSU), Gujarat. Meanwhile, international organisations such as Interpol, UNODC, and UNICEF stress the need for strict ethical standards and well-defined Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) when using such technologies. They advocate protecting human rights, personal dignity, and data privacy, especially in legal systems where such tools may heavily influence outcomes.


BEOS Profiling marks a transformative development in forensic science, offering a unique approach to detecting crime-related experiential knowledge. While its applications have shown value in high-profile cases, it requires strict legal and ethical oversight. Moving forward, balancing technological innovation with the protection of individual rights will be crucial to its continued role in the justice system.


(Dr. Kumar is a retired IPS officer and forensic advisor to the Assam government. Boruah is a student of National Forensic Univeristy, Guwahati.)

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