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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Strategic Warmth

Donald Trump’s lavish praise of Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit offered a familiar lesson that in international affairs, there is often a vast gulf between atmospherics and reality. Whether it translates into warmer U.S. policy towards India after a period of pretty intense frostiness is another matter. Trump, who only months ago was disparaging India with the sort of rhetorical abandon usually reserved for political opponents, suddenly rediscovered his affection for the...

Strategic Warmth

Donald Trump’s lavish praise of Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit offered a familiar lesson that in international affairs, there is often a vast gulf between atmospherics and reality. Whether it translates into warmer U.S. policy towards India after a period of pretty intense frostiness is another matter. Trump, who only months ago was disparaging India with the sort of rhetorical abandon usually reserved for political opponents, suddenly rediscovered his affection for the world’s largest democracy. The American president described Modi as a “tough trader” while simultaneously calling him “an angel.” It was the sort of praise-soaked performance that recalled the heady days of ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump.’ Yet, seasoned observers of Trump know that his compliments are often as revealing as they are unreliable. Few world leaders have demonstrated such a remarkable capacity to oscillate between criticism and admiration as Trump. One moment India is a troublesome trading partner; the next it is an indispensable ally, never mind the U.S. willingness to indulge Pakistan’s anti-India machinations. The contradiction does not seem to trouble Trump. The question is whether Washington is genuinely attempting to repair ties with New Delhi after a period of growing strain. For all the noise generated by tariff disputes, immigration restrictions and occasional diplomatic irritants, the strategic logic underpinning the relationship has only strengthened. China’s growing assertiveness has convinced successive American administrations, regardless of party, that a stable balance of power in Asia is impossible without Indian participation. Trump may possess little patience for traditional alliances, but even he understands this arithmetic. His declaration that America would assist India if attacked was particularly notable, given that the U.S. rushed to shield Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. That said, the obstacles that have complicated the Indo-U.S. relationship have not disappeared. Trade remains a perennial source of friction. Trump continues to view international commerce through a mercantilist lens, measuring success largely through bilateral balances and tariff concessions. Indian professionals and students remain deeply affected by American visa policies. Modi himself raised concerns about the safety of Indian seafarers following recent American military actions in the Gulf of Oman that resulted in Indian casualties. Going by Trump’s record, personal rapport be mistaken for institutional trust. The history of Indo-American relations is littered with moments of enthusiasm followed by disappointment. What has sustained the partnership in recent years is not chemistry between leaders but a convergence of interests. That may ultimately be the most important takeaway from the latest Modi-Trump encounter. The meeting was less a revival of an old friendship than an acknowledgement of mutual necessity. Smiles and compliments make for good television. They may even indicate that both governments are seeking to lower the temperature after months of tension. But in the Trump era, warm words are among the cheapest commodities in international politics.

BJP Boost

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

As the dust settles over the recent Assembly elections, the BJP, defying anti-incumbency prediction of political Cassandras and exit polls, is set for a historic third term in Haryana. This will buoy the party after its underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The Haryana outcome not only reinforces the BJP’s foothold in national politics but also presents a counter-narrative to the INDIA bloc’s post-election fervour.

Despite the bogey stoked by lingering farmer protests and discontent surrounding the controversial Agniveer scheme, the BJP strategically diversified its approach, relying not solely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s star power—evidenced by his reduced number of rallies—but also on a ground-level consolidation of anti-Jat votes. The Congress’s over-reliance on the Jat community backfired, rallying other groups against it. Interestingly, the Dalit vote, which the Congress anticipated would tilt in its favour, has not completely abandoned the BJP.


At the forefront of the BJP's campaign was Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, whose relatively short tenure allowed him to distance himself from the decade-long rule of the previous administration. By introducing measures to benefit the backward classes, including a significant income limit increase for OBC employment from Rs. 6 lakh to Rs. 8 lakh, the BJP effectively shifted the narrative in its favour. Their mantra of ‘bina parchi, bina kharchi Naukri (promising jobs without bribes) resonated with voters.


The BJP’s rejuvenated team, led by key figures such as Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and state leaders, has seemingly addressed concerns that arose following its poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections. The incorporation of new candidates in place of established leaders provided a fresh face that contrasted sharply with the Congress’s decision to recycle incumbents.


In contrast, in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference, in alliance with the Congress, having crossed the majority threshold, reclaimed its historic dominance and is set to form the government. Here, the BJP’s performance in the first Assembly election held after the abrogation of Article 370, fell short despite its strenuous attempt to position itself as a proponent of development.


The electorate’s apparent rejection of hardline factions like the PDP reflects a nuanced response and win for democracy. Notably, the results have shown a significant rejection of separatist candidates, including those from Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, who failed to make a meaningful impact in the polls.


The BJP’s emphatic victory in Haryana redeems its Lok Sabha misstep but also signals a broader political resurgence, giving the party renewed vigour to march into future contests like the crucial Maharashtra Assembly election.

 
 
 

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