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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 4:59:11 pm

Fadnavis reins in Sena’s Marathi push

AI generated image Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra is witnessing a delicate political balancing act, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis increasingly overriding key decisions of alliance partners, particularly the Shiv Sena, while simultaneously attempting to placate them on other fronts. The tension within the alliance came to the fore on Thursday when Fadnavis stepped in to dilute a controversial mandate enforced by Shiv Sena Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, which...

Fadnavis reins in Sena’s Marathi push

AI generated image Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra is witnessing a delicate political balancing act, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis increasingly overriding key decisions of alliance partners, particularly the Shiv Sena, while simultaneously attempting to placate them on other fronts. The tension within the alliance came to the fore on Thursday when Fadnavis stepped in to dilute a controversial mandate enforced by Shiv Sena Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, which required auto-rickshaw and taxi drivers in Mumbai to possess basic Marathi language proficiency. The Transport Department’s enforcement drive, which threatened non-Marathi-speaking drivers with suspension or cancellation of their licences, sparked outrage among North Indian drivers who form a sizeable section of the public transport workforce in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Protests brought parts of Mumbai, including Kandivali and Malad, to a standstill. Recognising the potential electoral fallout, Fadnavis intervened, saying drivers need not be “experts” in Marathi. He also extended the grace period for drivers to acquire a working knowledge of the language to one year, effectively diluting Sarnaik’s hardline stance. Fadnavis announced the decision after a delegation of transport operators met him. The episode highlights the conflicting political compulsions of the Mahayuti partners. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is keen to pursue a pro-Marathi, “sons of the soil” agenda to consolidate its traditional voter base and counter the rival Shiv Sena (UBT) faction led by Uddhav Thackeray. The BJP, however, relies heavily on North Indian and migrant voters in the MMR, particularly as crucial civic and state elections approach. Any aggressive regional policy that alienates this constituency could have electoral consequences for the party. The Marathi language issue is not an isolated instance of Fadnavis stepping in to override decisions associated with the Shiv Sena. It fits into a broader pattern of the chief minister’s administration reviewing or reversing several initiatives of the previous government headed by Shinde. In April 2026, the BJP-led Environment Department, headed by Minister Pankaja Munde, scrapped 14 lake conservation projects, 11 of which had been cleared during Shinde’s tenure, and ordered recovery of more than Rs 73 crore. The Fadnavis government has also modified several initiatives introduced by the previous regime. In January 2025, it altered Shinde’s three-course school meal plan, placing the responsibility on local school management committees to raise funds for sweet dishes. In April 2025, the government scrapped the ‘One State, One Uniform’ policy for schools. A Rs 3,200-crore tender for mechanised housekeeping services at government hospitals, issued under the Shinde government, was also stayed. Yet, Fadnavis remains conscious of the need to preserve the fragile alliance. To manage growing resentment within the Sena, he has adopted what can be described as a ‘blow hot, blow cold’ approach — overriding decisions when they clash with the BJP’s broader political interests while offering political concessions on other fronts. One such move was the recent appointment of Shiv Sena leader Bharat Gogawale as Guardian Minister of the politically important Raigad district, ending a 19-month-long tussle over the post. At the same time, the Mahayuti government recently reduced the powers exercised by Guardian Ministers over District Planning Committee (DPC) funds, directing that 70 per cent of the funds be allocated directly to local MLAs. The move is aimed at reducing the concentration of financial powers with individual ministers. As the Mahayuti navigates these competing interests, Fadnavis has also instructed alliance partners to resolve disputes internally and avoid public sparring. However, the latest confrontation over the Marathi language requirement underscores the limits of that arrangement. While Fadnavis continues to use his authority to protect the BJP’s broader electoral interests, the Shiv Sena remains under pressure to assert its regional identity and distinguish itself from the Thackeray faction. With elections approaching, balancing these competing political priorities is likely to remain one of the biggest challenges for the Mahayuti government.

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible.


The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted.


In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations.


Next Calendar

The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party.


In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased.


Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House.


For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

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