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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

BJP’s Grip vs Congress’s Comeback

Yavatmal

The assembly constituencies of Yavatmal district in Maharashtra’s eastern Vidarbha region are gearing up for a pivotal contest on November 20 with BJP incumbents battling strong Congress contenders in this region.


The Yavatmal Assembly constituency epitomizes the complexities of Vidarbha’s political landscape. It balances urban and rural dynamics, with 56 percent of voters from urban areas and the rest from rural regions. The diverse electorate (13 percent Dalit, 16 percent tribal, and 10 percent Muslim) creates a challenging canvas for political strategists.

BJP’s Madan Madhukarrao Yerawar, who narrowly retained his seat in 2019, faces a resurgent Congress led by Anil Balasaheb Shankarrao. Yerawar’s victories in 2014 and 2019 reflect the BJP’s grip, yet the slim margins (just over 2,000 votes in the last election) highlight the constituency’s competitive spirit. Shankarrao hopes to consolidate discontent against the incumbent, particularly by courting Dalit, tribal, and Muslim voters.

While Yerawar banks on his track record and the BJP’s regional dominance, Shankarrao positions himself as a fresh alternative to five years of perceived stagnation. This battle will test the BJP’s ability to withstand anti-incumbency and the Congress’ efforts to revive its fortunes in Vidarbha.


In the reserved Ralegaon (ST) constituency, a tribal battleground, the BJP’s Ashok Uike, a two-term MLA, faces Congress’s Prof. Vasant Chinduji Purke in another closely-watched race. Known for its agricultural prominence, particularly cotton and soybean production, the constituency’s priorities include irrigation, crop prices, and tribal welfare.

Uike’s victories in 2014 and 2019 signal the BJP’s dominance, but Purke remains a persistent challenger, leveraging grassroots connections and Congress’s renewed focus on tribal issues. Uike’s 2019 victory margin of 9,875 votes suggests that while the BJP holds the edge, the Congress is not out of contention.

Both candidates are seasoned campaigners, but Purke’s bid to highlight local grievances, ranging from agrarian distress to inadequate healthcare, could resonate with voters frustrated by unmet promises.


Adding to the BJP’s challenges is the defection of Gyayak Patni, son of late BJP MLA Rajendra Patni to Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) in the neighbouring Karanja Assembly segment.


Patni’s departure exposes cracks in the BJP’s internal machinery, with local leaders citing disillusionment over the party’s handling of constituency matters. Such defections, though seemingly isolated, risk undermining the BJP’s narrative of invincibility in Vidarbha.

NCP leader Jayant Patil wasted no time framing Patni’s move as symbolic of the BJP’s overconfidence. Whether this defection will significantly alter the electoral dynamics in the adjoining Washim district remains uncertain, but it underscores broader dissatisfaction brewing within the BJP’s ranks.

As Yavatmal and its surrounding constituencies gear up for polling day, the outcomes will not merely decide local representation but also signal the direction of Maharashtra’s political winds. The BJP’s ability to retain its foothold in Vidarbha, a region often seen as its stronghold, will be critical to its broader state-level ambitions. If the Congress and the MVA score big, it would signal the grand old party’s dominance in Vidarbha – a region that historically belonged to them but had slipped from their grasp following the BJP’s ascent after 2014.


The results on November 23 will reveal whether eastern Vidarbha’s voters favour continuity or seek change in a region where every election is fought as if it were the first - and the last.

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