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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

BJP’s Grip vs Congress’s Comeback

Yavatmal

The assembly constituencies of Yavatmal district in Maharashtra’s eastern Vidarbha region are gearing up for a pivotal contest on November 20 with BJP incumbents battling strong Congress contenders in this region.


The Yavatmal Assembly constituency epitomizes the complexities of Vidarbha’s political landscape. It balances urban and rural dynamics, with 56 percent of voters from urban areas and the rest from rural regions. The diverse electorate (13 percent Dalit, 16 percent tribal, and 10 percent Muslim) creates a challenging canvas for political strategists.

BJP’s Madan Madhukarrao Yerawar, who narrowly retained his seat in 2019, faces a resurgent Congress led by Anil Balasaheb Shankarrao. Yerawar’s victories in 2014 and 2019 reflect the BJP’s grip, yet the slim margins (just over 2,000 votes in the last election) highlight the constituency’s competitive spirit. Shankarrao hopes to consolidate discontent against the incumbent, particularly by courting Dalit, tribal, and Muslim voters.

While Yerawar banks on his track record and the BJP’s regional dominance, Shankarrao positions himself as a fresh alternative to five years of perceived stagnation. This battle will test the BJP’s ability to withstand anti-incumbency and the Congress’ efforts to revive its fortunes in Vidarbha.


In the reserved Ralegaon (ST) constituency, a tribal battleground, the BJP’s Ashok Uike, a two-term MLA, faces Congress’s Prof. Vasant Chinduji Purke in another closely-watched race. Known for its agricultural prominence, particularly cotton and soybean production, the constituency’s priorities include irrigation, crop prices, and tribal welfare.

Uike’s victories in 2014 and 2019 signal the BJP’s dominance, but Purke remains a persistent challenger, leveraging grassroots connections and Congress’s renewed focus on tribal issues. Uike’s 2019 victory margin of 9,875 votes suggests that while the BJP holds the edge, the Congress is not out of contention.

Both candidates are seasoned campaigners, but Purke’s bid to highlight local grievances, ranging from agrarian distress to inadequate healthcare, could resonate with voters frustrated by unmet promises.


Adding to the BJP’s challenges is the defection of Gyayak Patni, son of late BJP MLA Rajendra Patni to Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) in the neighbouring Karanja Assembly segment.


Patni’s departure exposes cracks in the BJP’s internal machinery, with local leaders citing disillusionment over the party’s handling of constituency matters. Such defections, though seemingly isolated, risk undermining the BJP’s narrative of invincibility in Vidarbha.

NCP leader Jayant Patil wasted no time framing Patni’s move as symbolic of the BJP’s overconfidence. Whether this defection will significantly alter the electoral dynamics in the adjoining Washim district remains uncertain, but it underscores broader dissatisfaction brewing within the BJP’s ranks.

As Yavatmal and its surrounding constituencies gear up for polling day, the outcomes will not merely decide local representation but also signal the direction of Maharashtra’s political winds. The BJP’s ability to retain its foothold in Vidarbha, a region often seen as its stronghold, will be critical to its broader state-level ambitions. If the Congress and the MVA score big, it would signal the grand old party’s dominance in Vidarbha – a region that historically belonged to them but had slipped from their grasp following the BJP’s ascent after 2014.


The results on November 23 will reveal whether eastern Vidarbha’s voters favour continuity or seek change in a region where every election is fought as if it were the first - and the last.

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