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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

Bouquet of Thorns: Maharashtra’s Sidelined Political Stalwarts

Updated: Dec 23, 2024

Bouquet of Thorns

In the poetry of Shanta Shelke, the verse, “Thorns hurt someone, and others cry in pain; for me, even a flower pricks—such is my fate!” resonates deeply with the plight of several political leaders in Maharashtra. Despite their steadfast contributions to their parties, leaders like Chhagan Bhujbal, Sudhir Mungantiwar, Deepak Kesarkar, Tanaji Sawant, and Abdul Sattar find themselves relegated to the sidelines in a season of political bouquets. Their stories reveal the complexities of modern Indian politics, where merit, loyalty, and power equations often collide in a volatile dance of inclusion and exclusion.


Among those excluded from the cabinet, Chhagan Bhujbal’s omission is perhaps the most glaring. Once the first Shiv Sainik to rebel against Balasaheb Thackeray—under the tutelage of Sharad Pawar—Bhujbal evolved into a formidable force in Maharashtra’s political arena. His leadership of the Akhil Bharatiya Mahatma Phule Samata Parishad, where he championed an independent census for Other Backward Classes (OBC), solidified his standing as an OBC icon across states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat.


Most recently, Bhujbal’s robust rebuttal of Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil helped his party weather electoral storms in the Vidhan Sabha elections. Yet, his efforts were insufficient to secure him a cabinet berth. Insiders suggest two reasons for this snub. First, Bhujbal’s nephew, Sameer Bhujbal, contested the Nandgaon assembly seat against Shiv Sena’s Suhas Kande, reportedly ruffling feathers with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Second, Bhujbal’s aggressive stance against Jarange-Patil, while strengthening his party’s OBC support, risked alienating Maratha voters.


Speculation now swirls around a potential gubernatorial appointment for Bhujbal. Yet, his exclusion marks a stark reminder of how even political heavyweights can find themselves at the mercy of electoral arithmetic and internal rivalries.


Sudhir Mungantiwar, a seven-time MLA and a trusted lieutenant of Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, also finds himself sidelined. His exclusion is widely attributed to his loss in the Lok Sabha elections and his fraught relationship with Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.


Mungantiwar’s rivalry with Fadnavis reached a crescendo when Fadnavis backed Kishor Jorgewar’s candidacy in Chandrapur, an area long dominated by Mungantiwar. Jorgewar’s victory not only diminished Mungantiwar’s influence but also introduced an alternative power centre in the region. Further complicating matters, his uneasy ties with Hansraj Ahir, a former BJP MP, weakened his political footing.


Adding to his woes, Mungantiwar’s critics argue that his leadership style failed to evolve with the times. As the BJP pushes for younger faces and fresher narratives, the challenge for stalwarts like Mungantiwar lies in remaining relevant while navigating an increasingly crowded political stage. Observers say that Mungantiwar, once a towering figure in Vidarbha politics, must now adapt to his party’s emphasis on a younger, dynamic leadership to stay relevant.


In the ruling Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, the sidelining of leaders like Deepak Kesarkar, Abdul Sattar and Tanaji Sawant reflects shifting priorities. Kesarkar, previously lauded for his diplomacy, found himself embroiled in a controversy after a viral altercation with a teacher, which dented his political capital.


Similarly, Abdul Sattar and Tanaji Sawant, despite their contributions, fell out of favour due to alleged missteps and internal dynamics within the Sena. Their exclusion underscores a broader trend within the Shinde camp: a recalibration of loyalties and priorities in the aftermath of its split from the Uddhav Thackeray faction.


Even within the Sena (Shinde camp), the focus on consolidating power under the leadership of Eknath Shinde has led to a more centralized decision-making structure, often at the expense of seasoned leaders. For these sidelined figures, the challenge lies in adapting to this new reality while remaining indispensable to the party’s future.


The sidelining of political stalwarts like Bhujbal, Mungantiwar and others offers a sobering lesson in the fickleness of power. Coalition politics, caste equations, and the need to balance regional aspirations often leave even seasoned leaders out in the cold.


The fates of Maharashtra’s sidelined leaders ought to serve as cautionary tales of the thorns hidden within every bouquet of success. Their plight underscores a broader truth in politics: survival demands reinvention, patience and the ability to read shifting winds. Those who can recalibrate alliances and redefine their relevance may yet reclaim their place in the corridors of power. Others, however, may find themselves consigned to the ash bin of political history, their downfall serving as case studies in underestimating the mercurial nature of public life.


For these leaders, survival demands a mix of patience, pragmatism and adaptability. In Maharashtra’s volatile political landscape, those who can recalibrate their alliances and reinvent their roles are more likely to endure. Even after all this, Bhujbal may yet find solace in a gubernatorial position, and Mungantiwar could well stage a comeback under Gadkari’s aegis. Then again, for others, the road back to relevance may be longer and fraught with uncertainty. The art of survival, as always, lies in enduring the prick while waiting for the next bloom.


(The author is a political observer. Views personal.)

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