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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Buldhana’s Bumpy Battleground

Buldhana

Buldhana, known as the gateway of the Vidarbha region, has long been a political stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena. At the time of its firebrand Bal Thackeray, the Sena’s brand of hard-hitting politics had attracted the Bahujan and OBC youth in this part of western Vidarbha, displacing the Congress party from its once-immovable position. The district’s politics have never been kind to women candidates – that is, until now.


This year, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is rewriting the district’s political playbook. For the first time, the Sena (UBT) is fielding a woman candidate for the Buldhana Assembly seat: Jayashree Shelke, a former Congress leader and now the MVA (Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi)’s nominee. Shelke’s candidacy is both a symbolic break from tradition and a practical manoeuvre. If she succeeds, she could become Buldhana’s first-ever female MLA, marking a historic shift in the district’s political landscape.


But Shelke’s path is steeped in challenges. She faces stiff competition from Sanjay Gaikwad of the rival Shiv Sena faction, led by Eknath Shinde. Gaikwad, a prominent local figure, embodies the combative style of Shiv Sena politics, which has often resonated with voters in Buldhana. His track record of controversial statements plays well with the district’s electorate, who are accustomed to the abrasive politics that used to be synonymous with the undivided Shiv Sena.


Buldhana is a microcosm of the larger political flux sweeping Maharashtra. The district is steeped in historical significance, being the birthplace of Rajmata Jijau, mother of the Maratha warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. It is also known for its deep connection to saintly traditions and has seven assembly constituencies, including key battlegrounds like Khamgaon and Sindkhed Raja. In 2019, the district saw a split allegiance, with three BJP MLAs, two Shiv Sena, one Congress, and one NCP representative securing seats.


This year, however, the political stakes in Buldhana are higher than ever. The Thackeray faction’s decision to back Shelke is a calculated move to regain lost ground among disillusioned Congress supporters. Shelke’s candidacy is seen as a strategic ‘swap’ after the Sena (UBT) had helped Congress win a Legislative Council seat in the past.


Meanwhile, in Khamgaon, another key constituency in the region, the political landscape is equally charged. Known as Vidarbha’s ‘hot city’, Khamgaon has been the site of fierce rivalries, notably between the BJP and Congress. Here, the ideological battle between Hindutva and Congress’s so-called secularism is playing out in full force. In the past, the BJP’s Bhausaheb Fundkar, an influential local figure, had secured a major victory in 2014, defeating Congress’s Dilip Sananda, a traditional powerbroker in the region. Sananda’s return to the fray this year, after a five-year hiatus, has reignited old rivalries.


Fundkar, now represented by his son Akash, is riding on the BJP’s solid support base among Marathas, OBCs and Hindutva voters. His focus on rural development and the BJP’s united front gives him a significant advantage. In contrast, Sananda’s candidacy risks being undermined by the factionalism within Congress. His campaign is seen as self-serving, and with the rise of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and other smaller parties, the secular vote could fragment, benefiting the BJP.


In both constituencies, the contest is not just about votes but about legacy and identity.

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