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23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

Buldhana’s Bumpy Battleground

Buldhana

Buldhana, known as the gateway of the Vidarbha region, has long been a political stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena. At the time of its firebrand Bal Thackeray, the Sena’s brand of hard-hitting politics had attracted the Bahujan and OBC youth in this part of western Vidarbha, displacing the Congress party from its once-immovable position. The district’s politics have never been kind to women candidates – that is, until now.


This year, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is rewriting the district’s political playbook. For the first time, the Sena (UBT) is fielding a woman candidate for the Buldhana Assembly seat: Jayashree Shelke, a former Congress leader and now the MVA (Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi)’s nominee. Shelke’s candidacy is both a symbolic break from tradition and a practical manoeuvre. If she succeeds, she could become Buldhana’s first-ever female MLA, marking a historic shift in the district’s political landscape.


But Shelke’s path is steeped in challenges. She faces stiff competition from Sanjay Gaikwad of the rival Shiv Sena faction, led by Eknath Shinde. Gaikwad, a prominent local figure, embodies the combative style of Shiv Sena politics, which has often resonated with voters in Buldhana. His track record of controversial statements plays well with the district’s electorate, who are accustomed to the abrasive politics that used to be synonymous with the undivided Shiv Sena.


Buldhana is a microcosm of the larger political flux sweeping Maharashtra. The district is steeped in historical significance, being the birthplace of Rajmata Jijau, mother of the Maratha warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. It is also known for its deep connection to saintly traditions and has seven assembly constituencies, including key battlegrounds like Khamgaon and Sindkhed Raja. In 2019, the district saw a split allegiance, with three BJP MLAs, two Shiv Sena, one Congress, and one NCP representative securing seats.


This year, however, the political stakes in Buldhana are higher than ever. The Thackeray faction’s decision to back Shelke is a calculated move to regain lost ground among disillusioned Congress supporters. Shelke’s candidacy is seen as a strategic ‘swap’ after the Sena (UBT) had helped Congress win a Legislative Council seat in the past.


Meanwhile, in Khamgaon, another key constituency in the region, the political landscape is equally charged. Known as Vidarbha’s ‘hot city’, Khamgaon has been the site of fierce rivalries, notably between the BJP and Congress. Here, the ideological battle between Hindutva and Congress’s so-called secularism is playing out in full force. In the past, the BJP’s Bhausaheb Fundkar, an influential local figure, had secured a major victory in 2014, defeating Congress’s Dilip Sananda, a traditional powerbroker in the region. Sananda’s return to the fray this year, after a five-year hiatus, has reignited old rivalries.


Fundkar, now represented by his son Akash, is riding on the BJP’s solid support base among Marathas, OBCs and Hindutva voters. His focus on rural development and the BJP’s united front gives him a significant advantage. In contrast, Sananda’s candidacy risks being undermined by the factionalism within Congress. His campaign is seen as self-serving, and with the rise of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and other smaller parties, the secular vote could fragment, benefiting the BJP.


In both constituencies, the contest is not just about votes but about legacy and identity.

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