top of page

By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Chatter Box

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

“We are really really concerned about urban apathy. We want to appeal to all voters in urban areas to come and vote. It is not a healthy trend which is reflected. “Look at Gurgaon, look at Faridabad, recently, last election Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad, Bengaluru South, Gandhinagar, Colaba, Pune, Thane. All are much below state averages of each state.”

Rajiv Kumar, Chief Election Commissioner


“The moment that we all, as Maharashtra, has been waiting for is here: 20th November is poll day. We waited for justice but now justice will be done by the electorate. Jai Maharashtra!”

Aaditya Thackeray, Leader, Shiv Sena (UBT)


“A desperate Mahayuti knowing it is not coming back to power has spent its last few days bestowing gifts to Modani at the expense of the people of Mumbai and Maharashtra. Modani wins energy contract to supply 6,600 MW power to Maharashtra at inflated consumer prices, 255 acres of ecologically fragile salt pan land handed over to Modani, 140 acres in Madh handed over to Modani, 124 acres from the Deonar landfill in Mumbai handed over to Modani.”

Jairam Ramesh, General Secretary, Congress


“The BSP will contest elections alone in both these states. It is to ensure that its people remain united and strive to come to power as part of their mission to protect dignity and self-respect inspired by dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar.”

Mayawati, Chief, BSP


“The Maratha community had hoped that its demands (regarding quota) would be fulfilled, but Fadnavis has worked to ruin the life of Maratha youth. He worked to ensure that the community did not remain united, didn’t progress and was deprived of reservation. Hence, they have announced the elections without fulfilling our demand. Making decisions was in their (ruling parties) hands. But now, the community will decide whether to bring you back to power. The community cannot be ignored while forming the government. The Marathas have shown their power for 14 months and should now show their power through voting.”

Manoj Jarange-Patil, Maratha quota activist


“The biggest festival of democracy was announced today. Diwali is known as a festival of lights, and we shall celebrate another such day on November 23. Maharashtra awaits your blessings and strong mandate for development. Under BJP’s leadership, massive victory was recorded in the 2014 and 2019 (assembly elections). Let us all come together and celebrate Mahayuti’s mega victory on November 23. Participate in large numbers in this festival of democracy.”

Devendra Fadnavis, Leader, BJP


“On those banners, I was described as an old man of 84 years. But you do not worry, because be it 84 or be it 90, this old man will not stop. This old man will not rest until he brings the state on the right track and I am sure of getting your help. It is the policy of those who are in power to indulge in corruption in every sector and that is why it is your and my responsibility to take out the power from their hands.”

Sharad Pawar, chief, NCP (SP)


“From ‘Ladki Bahin’ to senior citizens, from farmers to common man, we made everyone a stakeholder of power through schemes. We have shown this to Maharashtra. It ranks number one in development, industry, basic infrastructure and welfare schemes. This will reflect in the outcome of the elections. We are facing elections by putting a united front on the basis of development.”

Eknath Shinde, Chief Minister


“Be it Jayant Patil (of NCP-SP) or Vijay Wadettiwar (of Congress), they had earlier criticised the Election Commission for holding Lok Sabha polls in five stages. The same EC is now conducting polls in one stage in the state, but the opposition parties criticised that move as well. They are changing colours like a chameleon. They have basically conceded their defeat before the election.”

Chandrashekhar Bawankule, President, Maharashtra BJP

Comments

bottom of page