China’s Expanding Grip on the Pacific

China’s latest Pacific deal with the Cook Islands raises security and economic concerns in New Zealand, Australia, and the U.S.

China’s influence in the Pacific took a new turn with last week’s agreement with the Cook Islands. The strategic partnership has sent shockwaves through Australia, New Zealand, and the USA. While focused on economic cooperation, infrastructure, and seabed mining, its broader geopolitical impact could reshape regional power dynamics.

The Cook Islands, a self-governing Pacific territory northeast of New Zealand, spans just 240 square kilometres with a population of around 17,000. Despite its size, its nearly two million square kilometre exclusive economic zone (EEZ) holds rich mineral resources, making it geopolitically valuable.

Historically reliant on New Zealand for economic aid, diplomacy, and security, the Cook Islands governs its own affairs while its citizens hold New Zealand passports. However, in recent years, it has sought to diversify its foreign ties, particularly with China—an outcome partly driven by New Zealand’s own encouragement of Chinese involvement in the region.

China’s Expanding Interests in the Cook Islands

China’s interest in the Cook Islands is both economic and strategic. A key aspect of the recent agreement is seabed mineral exploration, as the islands’ waters hold vast deposits of polymetallic nodules rich in cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements—crucial for technologies like EV batteries, semiconductors, and renewable energy. Gaining a foothold in this sector strengthens China’s control over global supply chains.

Beyond economics, China’s engagement aligns with its broader Pacific ambitions, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative. Over two decades, it has invested heavily in regional infrastructure through loans, grants, and diplomacy. The Cook Islands partnership further deepens China’s influence, challenging the dominance of New Zealand, Australia, and the US.

China’s growing presence in the Cook Islands has been years in the making, driven by economic diplomacy and soft power. Infrastructure funding has played a key role, with investments in roads, government buildings, and development projects across the Pacific. China has also expanded educational exchanges, offering scholarships to Cook Islands students to foster long-term goodwill.

Pacific nations’ economic vulnerability has further aided China’s influence. The Cook Islands, heavily reliant on tourism, was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. China’s financial support provides an alternative to Western aid, helping the nation diversify its economy.

New Zealand’s Concerns and Reactions

The China-Cook Islands agreement has unsettled New Zealand, which sees the Pacific as its sphere of influence. A key concern is that the Cook Islands signed the deal without consulting New Zealand, signalling a shift in foreign policy. New Zealand also fears China’s growing regional clout and the risk of economic dependence undermining the Cook Islands’ sovereignty.

Domestically, the deal has faced backlash. Many residents criticised the lack of transparency, as the government initially withheld details. Some fear China’s aid comes with strings attached, with protests in Avarua demanding greater oversight. Under pressure, the Cook Islands government has agreed to release the action plan, while the opposition plans a no-confidence motion.

The China-Cook Islands partnership has broader implications for the balance of power in the Pacific. For the United States and Australia, China’s expanding presence in the region is part of a larger pattern of strategic competition. Both countries have long sought to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, viewing the Pacific Islands as critical to regional security.

From a military perspective, while the Cook Islands deal does not include security arrangements, past Chinese agreements in the Pacific, such as those with the Solomon Islands, have at times evolved to include security elements, raising concerns about potential future developments. The United States and Australia have already taken steps to counter China’s outreach, increasing aid and strengthening diplomatic ties with Pacific nations. The US-Indo-Pacific strategy emphasises partnerships with Pacific Island states to ensure they do not become overly reliant on Chinese investment.

Another area of concern is the potential impact on global supply chains. China’s access to seabed mining resources in the Cook Islands could give it greater control over critical minerals essential for the global technology industry. This development may prompt the U.S., Australia, and their allies to accelerate their efforts to secure alternative sources of rare earth elements and other strategic minerals.

The China-Cook Islands agreement is more than just a bilateral economic deal—it is a reflection of shifting power dynamics in the Pacific. While the Cook Islands seeks economic diversification, its engagement with China raises significant geopolitical questions. New Zealand, the U.S., and Australia must now rethink their strategies to maintain influence in a region where China is steadily expanding its reach. The coming years will determine whether Pacific nations can strike a balance between economic growth and strategic autonomy in the face of competing global interests.

(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)