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By:

Amey Chitale

28 October 2024 at 5:29:02 am

Growth Without Fireworks

The Budget leans on tourism, technology, trade calibration and fiscal discipline to anchor growth amid global uncertainty Mumbai: The new budget positions tourism as a key driver of jobs, forex earnings, and local growth. Incentives will back indigenous seaplane manufacturing through a Seaplane VGF Scheme, while a new National Institute of Hospitality will strengthen academia-industry-government linkages. A pilot programme will upskill 10,000 guides at 20 iconic sites with IIM collaboration,...

Growth Without Fireworks

The Budget leans on tourism, technology, trade calibration and fiscal discipline to anchor growth amid global uncertainty Mumbai: The new budget positions tourism as a key driver of jobs, forex earnings, and local growth. Incentives will back indigenous seaplane manufacturing through a Seaplane VGF Scheme, while a new National Institute of Hospitality will strengthen academia-industry-government linkages. A pilot programme will upskill 10,000 guides at 20 iconic sites with IIM collaboration, and a National Destination Digital Knowledge Grid will document cultural and heritage sites. Heritage tourism will be enhanced with experiential upgrades at 15 archaeological sites, and new projects will expand the Buddhist circuit in the northeast. Seven High-Speed Rail corridors will serve as sustainable ‘growth connectors,’ boosting mobility and linking emerging hubs. Software services, IT-enabled services, KPO, and contract R&D are consolidated under ‘Information Technology Services’ with a uniform safe harbour margin of 15.5 percent. The safe harbour threshold rises from Rs. 300 crore to Rs. 2,000 crore, easing compliance for mid-sized firms. To spur investment in critical infrastructure, a tax holiday until 2047 is offered to foreign companies delivering global cloud services via Indian data centres, provided domestic customers are served through Indian resellers. This landmark measure positions modern data centres as central pillars of India’s digital economy and future growth. Key Reforms Income tax rates remain steady but introduces key compliance reforms. TCS on foreign travel and education is reduced to 2 percent, and TDS rules for manpower services have been simplified. Taxpayers can now file Form 15G/15H directly through depositories, easing coordination. Penalty provisions are de-criminalised, with many shifted to late fees. While broader capital gains rationalisation was anticipated, relief comes through treating buyback proceeds as capital gains, lowering the tax burden for recipients. Trade-friendly customs duty reforms find place instead changes rather than sweeping reforms. The duty-free import limit for seafood export inputs rises from 1 percent to 3 percent of turnover, with similar relief extended to shoe uppers. Exporters of leather, textiles, and footwear gain flexibility as the export period is extended to one year. To encourage domestic value addition in consumer electronics, specified parts for microwave oven manufacturing are now exempted. The recommendations of 16th Finance Commission have been accepted by the centre which recommended 41 percent devolution. Budget 2026 reaffirms the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation while safeguarding social priorities. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 56.1 percent in 2025–26 to 55.6 percent in 2026–27, freeing resources for priority spending by lowering interest outgo. The fiscal deficit target has been met at 4.4 percent of GDP in 2025–26 and is estimated to further ease to 4.3 percent in 2026–27, in line with the path toward a 50±1 percent debt-to-GDP ratio by 2030–31. Revised estimates for 2025–26 place non-debt receipts at Rs. 34 trillion and expenditure at Rs. 49.6 trillion, including Rs. 11 trillion in capital outlay. For 2026–27, receipts are projected at Rs. 36.5 trillion and expenditure at Rs. 53.5 trillion, with net tax receipts of Rs. 28.7 trillion. The government is banking on higher RBI dividends and higher disinvestment receipts. Fiscal deficit financing will hinge on Rs. 11.7 trillion in net market borrowings, supplemented by small savings and other sources, with gross borrowings at Rs. 17 trillion. Successful execution will decide if the budget’s ambitions become reality. This year’s strategy favours actions over numbers, consolidating and reinforcing the ecosystem instead of chasing headline reforms. Amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility, it prioritises stability and durable growth over quick wins - less a Sehwag-style first-ball six, more a Rahul Dravid innings: deliberate, resilient, and built for the long haul.

Cholas in Southeast Asia: Myth vs Reality

The famed Chola expeditions into Southeast Asia were less about conquest or cultural dominance and more about trade, prestige and unintended civilisational consequences.

The Chola kings undoubtedly ruled the seas, for almost over a century, between the end of the first and beginning of the second millennium CE. Domestically, that meant supremacy over the entire ‘Coromandel’ or actually the ‘Chola-mandala’ Coast, accomplishing victories over all the littoral kingdoms in the Bay of Bengal in 1021 CE. Internationally, or rather in terms of our today’s understanding of international maritime borders, the Cholas attacked and defeated the mighty Sri-Vijaya kingdom based in Indonesia’s Sumatra, including the base of its suzerain Shailendra dynasty in Kedah on the Malaysian Peninsula and a few neighbouring kingdoms, during their 1025 CE expedition.


Popular Myths

Many Indians, unmindful of the related historical and cultural contexts, perceive that Chola expedition as an ‘Indian victory’ over ‘foreign lands,’ touting it as an example of supremacy of Indian military prowess in its neighbourhood, before being suppressed and colonised by the technologically superior Western powers. This interpretation can be viewed as an attempt to characterize India as no less aggressive, and to project some dynasties as powers that, like Westerners, conquered others. It is also generally perceived that the Cholas were the pioneers or major contributors towards the spread of the Indic influence throughout Southeast Asia. None of these hypotheses, however, are true or accurate.


First of all, the Pallavas, the Cholas’ predecessors in the southern Indian power corridors, had played a big role in spreading the Indic influence deep and wide in Southeast Asia, just like the Guptas from the north had done before them. The historical incident of the Pallavas scouting for and fetching from Cambodia their blood-line inheritor for the Kanchipuram throne in the eighth century, is a proof of that. The Cholas were the latest entrants, though they too made some intense impact in the department of arts and architecture in the maritime Southeast Asia.


Their 1025 CE expedition was to teach a lesson or two to the rulers of Sri-Vijaya, for some of their major mischiefs that had troubled them – Firstly, to address the grievances of the Tamil trading guilds, where they themselves had a stake, about harassment and exploitation by the authorities at the Sri-Vijayan ports lining the international flow of trade, from Persia to China, through the Malacca Straits. It also included ensuring freedom to the passing ships, both Indian and others, to exercise their choice of halts, thus rescuing them from the forced halts at the Sri-Vijayan ports, and thereby brightening the business prospects for the Chola ports across the ocean. Secondly, it was to avenge the Sri-Vijayan misrepresentation of the Cholas as their vassals in the Chinese court, thus damaging the Chola prestige and their consequent entitlement to the associated privileges. Cholas had no intention to acquire Sri-Vijaya; their campaign was aimed at subjugating it to the extent of making it appear a weaker state, and thereby reversing the related perception of the Chinese court. The outcome too, proved the absence of an intention of a conquest. After defeating the reigning Sri-Vijayan king Sangrama Vijayottunga-varman, the Cholas returned home in a year’s time, after making the local successor occupy the throne, in a way following the Ramayana ideal, where Rama, after defeating Ravana, had handed over the Lanka kingdom back to the latter’s brother Vibhishana. 


Complex Histories

In contrast, what is not at all known or understood by most is about the unintentional but effective dent the said Chola expedition inadvertently caused to the future sustenance of the Indic influence throughout the Malaysian Peninsula as well as the Indonesian archipelago. It is a fact that the Chola attack of 1025 CE proved fatal for Sri-Vijaya’s sustenance, and although the latter continued to exist for some time, it disappeared from the scene by the end that century. Consequently, a number of Sri-Vijayan royals scattered and pursued their different ways thereafter. Sang Nila Utama, the founder of the Singapura kingdom, today’s Singapore, was one of them. Even, the later usurper of Singapura, Parameswara, who eventually converted to Islam and founded the historical Sultanate of Malacca on the Malaysian Peninsula, is said to be one of them. Islam is said to have set its first foot on Sumatra, in the thirteenth century, before it began its forward march throughout the rest of Indonesia. This Islamic footfall can be viewed as a result of the weakening and eventual downfall of Sri-Vijaya a century or so before, whose base was Sumatra itself. The argument in support of this claim lies in the fact that Islam never took Indonesia by surprise; Indonesians were aware about Islam’s existence as the faith of the Arab and Persian traders interacting with them since the seventh and eighth centuries. Despite that, Islam had not appealed to the Indonesians as a faith, throughout the half a millennium of their said socio-commercial interaction with the Arabs and the Persians. It finally appears to have appealed to them only after the decline and disappearance of Sri-Vijaya, followed by the Chola empire’s break-up in the thirteenth century. Joining these dots, it can be claimed that although it was obviously not foreseen by Rajendra Chola nor by Sangrama Vijayottunga-varman of Sri-Vijaya, their rivalry, later transformed into decisive battles causing the latter’s fall at the hands of the former, for justifiable reasons though, ultimately proved to be a trigger for the end of the Indic era, paving the way for an Islamic conquest of Indonesia.


(The writer is a research scholar in international relations. Views personal.)


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