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By:

Rahul Kulkarni

30 March 2025 at 3:32:54 pm

Why the Majority Doesn’t Matter

Most change fails not from resistance, but from weak coalition design. Even if you negotiate well, you can still fail for a boring reason: You built the wrong coalition. This week we step into the third act of this series: modernize without backlash. Most leaders walk into an MSME thinking change is a vote. If most people agree, you win. That’s corporate thinking. In legacy Indian SMEs, the majority is usually passive. The people who matter are the ones who can stop the flow.   Which Seat...

Why the Majority Doesn’t Matter

Most change fails not from resistance, but from weak coalition design. Even if you negotiate well, you can still fail for a boring reason: You built the wrong coalition. This week we step into the third act of this series: modernize without backlash. Most leaders walk into an MSME thinking change is a vote. If most people agree, you win. That’s corporate thinking. In legacy Indian SMEs, the majority is usually passive. The people who matter are the ones who can stop the flow.   Which Seat Inherited seat: you may have authority, but you still need backing beyond the family name. Hired seat: you may have ideas, but you don’t have a home team yet. Promoted seat: you may have relationships, but you don’t automatically have permission.   In cricket, you don’t win because you have 11 batsmen. You win because the field is set right for the plan. A bowler can be doing everything right and still leak runs if the field leaves gaps. Singles become boundaries. The team blames the bowler. But the real issue was field setting. That’s how change fails in MSMEs.   Veto Players A small blocking group can stall you even if everyone nods in meetings. They don’t argue. They sit at gates: - Money release - Purchase approvals - Dispatch control - Owner access They can delay, create exceptions, raise “data doubts,” or ask for “one more confirmation.” And then they do the most effective thing of all: quietly wait for your energy to fade.   Own Work In one assignment, I thought I had the room. People smiled, agreed, even said, “Very good”. Two weeks later, nothing had moved. Two gatekeepers kept adding small speed-breakers. Every objection sounded reasonable. Over a month, the pilot died … no drama, just suffocation. That’s when I learned: in MSMEs, you’re rarely battling resistance. You’re battling veto power.   Coalition Math Political scientist William Riker had a simple idea: you don’t need everyone, you need a coalition that’s just big enough to win and hold. In a company, that means: enough of the right people so the new way becomes unavoidable. And people don’t jump alone. Most switch only when they see others switching because nobody wants to be the first person who looks foolish. So, your job is not “get buy-in from 50 people”. Your job is: 1. Build a small winning coalition 2. Neutralise the blocking coalition 3. Make it visible so the passive majority follows Politics Drama Name the gates Write the 3–5 gates your change must pass through (money, approvals, dispatch, data). Then write who controls them in real life. Pick your first five supporters Not supporters in principle. People who will act. Five is enough to cover gates without becoming a crowd. Pay the coalition cost upfront Each supporter needs one thing to stay aligned: respect, safety, credit, clarity, control of exceptions. Ignore this, and support disappears the first time pressure comes. Neutralize blockers calmly You have three moves: Convert: give them a dignified role and protect the interest they fear losing. Bypass: redesign the workflow so their veto reduces. Contain: limit their veto to exceptions, not the main flow. What you should not do is start a public fight too early. That creates camps. Camps create long wars. Wars kill modernization.   Field Test Name your first five supporters for your next change. Against each name, write ONE concession they need to stay aligned. Example: “You chair the weekly ritual.” “Pilot data won’t be used for appraisal.” “You control exceptions, but exceptions must be logged.” “Your method becomes the base standard.” “Your role is made explicit.” If you can’t name five, you don’t have a coalition yet. You have a hope.   In MSMEs, the majority is tired, busy, and risk-sensitive. They won’t lead your change. They will join it when it feels safe and inevitable. So, stop trying to convince everyone. Set the field properly. Build alignment with five. Neutralise the two who can block.   (The writer is a co-founder at PPS Consulting. He is a business transformation consultant. He could be reached at rahul@ppsconsulting.biz.)

Commodity Markets: Driving Forces Behind Global Economic Trends

The commodity market is a platform where raw materials and primary products are bought, sold, and traded. These products range from agricultural goods such as wheat and rice to energy resources like crude oil and natural gas, as well as metals including gold, silver, copper and aluminium. Commodity markets play a crucial role in the global economy because they influence prices, trade flows, and overall economic stability.


Globally, commodity trading takes place through organised exchanges such as the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). In India, major platforms include the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). These exchanges provide transparent and regulated platforms for hedging, price discovery, speculation, and balancing global demand and supply.


Participants in the Commodity Market There are four main participants in commodity markets Producers (farmers, miners, and oil companies who produce commodities), Consumers (industries and businesses that use commodities as inputs), Traders and investors (participants who trade for profit or risk management) & Governments and regulators (who monitor markets and ensure stability). Commodity trading happens mainly in two ways first Spot Market buying and selling commodities for immediate delivery and second through Futures Market contracts where buyers and sellers agree today to trade a commodity at a fixed price on a future date. Futures contracts help companies manage risk and protect themselves from price fluctuations, especially in volatile markets.


Global commodity prices are primarily driven by demand and supply. However, several external factors also influence them Geopolitical events like wars and conflicts, such as the Russia–Ukraine war, which significantly impacted oil and wheat prices. Weather conditions like floods, droughts, or climate change affecting crop output (for example, floods in Pakistan impacting agricultural supply). Economic growth a strong growth in countries like China increases demand for metals and energy. US Dollar strength most commodities are priced in USD. When the dollar strengthens, commodities become more expensive for other countries, reducing demand.


Importance

Commodity markets are important because they:

• Help control and transmit inflation.

• Impact currency values and trade balances.

• Influence stock markets and corporate profits.

• Determine the cost of living by affecting food and energy prices.


Impact of FY 2026–27 Budget

In the Union Budget for FY 2026–27, the Indian government emphasized manufacturing and infrastructure. A public capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore was announced, with strong support for sectors such as biopharma, semiconductors, electronics, rare earths, chemicals, textiles, and capital goods. MSMEs received focused support through a Rs 10,000 crore SME Growth Fund, equity assistance, and liquidity support via platforms like TReDS.


These measures are expected to create a positive impact on commodity markets through:

• Increased demand for raw materials.

• Higher trading volumes and liquidity.

• Better price realization for producers.

• Growth in industrial and metal commodities.

• Reduced import dependence in the long term.

• Strengthened domestic supply chains.


The budget also focused on agriculture and rural incomes by promoting high-value crops, fisheries, AI-enabled agricultural platforms, and expanding irrigation and reservoir infrastructure under the Bharat Vistar initiative. This is likely to boost agricultural commodity output and stability.


Trade Developments

International trade policies also strongly influence commodity markets. Recent discussions between India and the United States, involving reduced reciprocal tariffs and increased trade in energy, technology, and agricultural products, have created positive market sentiment. Additionally, talks aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war have raised hopes for stability in global energy and food supplies.


Market Reactions

Commodity markets are deeply interconnected with global economic, political, and financial systems. While domestic policies like India’s FY 2026–27 Budget provide strong support for industrial growth and agricultural development, global macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements continue to play a dominant role. Overall, a stable and well-regulated commodity market ensures balanced growth, price stability, and sustainable economic development across nations.

(The writer is a Mumbai based finance expert. Views personal.)

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