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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Congress loses traditional Muslim voters to Sena (UBT)

UBT

Mumbai: Certain Congress leaders are contemplating whether it was the right decision to go again with the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) this time too.


Many Congressmen confessed that while the decision to be part of the coalition may eventually lead them to power they point out that being part of the MVA have cost them both their traditional Muslim voters and Muslim party workers dearly.


A case in point is the Shiv Sena’s (UBT) first list which does not have a single Muslim face as a candidate in it. “What is the point of this alliance?” fumes a Congress leader on conditions of anonymity. “While all of our Muslim voters have been voting for the Sena we haven’t got any of their Marathi voters voting for our candidates! Our Muslim votebank has diminished.”


He gives an example of the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat won by Sena’s Arvind Sawant due to the Muslim votes from Byculla and Mumbadevi alone.


Another Congress leader points out that Sena is also ‘encroaching’ in their territory. “On Wednesday there was a gathering of many Muslim leaders and representatives specially from Mohalla committees at Islam Gymkhana in Mumbai to discuss the upcoming strategy. Almost 90 percent of guests in this gathering were Shiv Sainiks,” the leader says. “The Muslim organisations and members of civil society asked the Shiv Sena (UBT) workers why there is no representation to the community despite the Muslim voting for the party.”


A Congress insider claims that many Muslim party workers are leaving the party. “We used to have a large number of Muslim workers from Vidharbha and Marathwada who used to work with us.


They are now shifting their allegiance to other parties specially the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.”


A senior Congress leader says the party will suffer in Mumbai by giving away its strongholds.


Nizamuddin Rayen, spokesperson for Mumbai Regional Congress Committee (MRCC), rubbishes all rumours of discontent amongst the Congress regarding the MVA pact. “The adjustment is happening in a good way, although lot of party workers may be angered with the way things are going, but the leaders will surely explain it to them.” He says the Muslims need not be worried by this as they are sure to get representation in the polls.


Nadeem Nusrath, General Secretary of the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) points out that through this alliance, the Congress has primarily been able to convey and demonstrate in very clear terms that secularism, liberty, freedom of expression and upholding in spirit and Constitution is the way forward in Indian polity.


“The Congress has been able to demonstrate in earnest that right wing political parties have accepted the fact that BJP, RSS is very narrow and parochial in its approach to Indian politics. Political power at all costs is their only dictum, to run this democracy.”


“When the people give their unconditional support to Congress, the internal dissatisfaction in the party becomes the primary and only spoiler,” says Nusrath.

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