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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Dhule’s Dilemma

Updated: Nov 12, 2024

Dhule

After years marred by faltering leadership and unmet promises, Dhule, a city steeped in both potential and frustration, finds itself grappling with a familiar malaise as yet another election approaches. For nearly 14 years, Dhule, positioned strategically in north Maharashtra, has teetered between hope and disappointment. Its incorporation into the ambitious Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) in 2011 was seen as a harbinger of industrial renaissance, promising to morph the city into a bustling logistics and textile hub. Yet, over a decade later and ahead of the November 20 Maharashtra Assembly polls, the Dhule City segment remains a byword for missed opportunities.


The reality on the ground is a stark contrast to the grand visions once touted. This city, cradled by two major national highways - Mumbai-Agra and Surat-Kolkata - has yet to see its infrastructure match its geographic advantage. Roads are left half-dug, industrial zones remain underdeveloped, and its cotton-rich fields are bereft of the expected industrial leap.


This cycle of unfulfilled potential has engendered deep political disillusionment. For Dhule’s residents, elections are less an opportunity for renewal and more a ritual of hope deferred and the politicians and elected representatives reflect this stagnancy in Dhule’s politics.


The city’s electorate, once optimistic, has seen its trust eroded as one MLA after another failed to effect meaningful change. In 2019, the victory of AIMIM’s Shah Faruk Anwar, in a nod to Dhule’s significant minority community (numbering roughly 50 per cent), sparked a fleeting moment of anticipation. But Anwar’s tenure, like that of his predecessors, has left voters yearning for more than symbolic representation.


The mercurial Anil Gote, who became MLA in 2009 and then got re-elected on a BJP ticket in 2014, and Rajwardhan Kadambande (first in the undivided NCP and later an independent candidate) have also cycled through Dhule’s political scene with little to show for their stints.


Even Anup Agrawal of the BJP, the current candidate of the ruling Mahayuti, whose platform hinges on revitalizing Dhule through industrial development and an MIDC push, acknowledges the missed chances. The BJP, despite its dominance at the state and national levels, failed to seize Dhule’s latent advantages.

The city’s upcoming election invites fresh narratives but remains clouded by scepticism. A fresh entrant into Dhule’s tired political scene is Irshad Jahagirdar campaign, who was Samajwadi Party (SP) boss Akhilesh Yadav’s pick for the Dhule City seat.


With much fanfare, Jahagirdar’s name was announced even before consultations with the opposition MVA bloc leaders (the SP being a part of the INDIA bloc which includes the three MVA parties). It brings new ambitions but familiar doubts. A former NCP regional secretary, Jahagirdar’s bid centers on promises of healthcare improvement and job creation. His rivals dismiss these pledges as opportunistic.


Jahagirdar is out to cannibalize votes of the opposition MVA. Anil Gote, now flying the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT)’s flag, is the MVA candidate this time.


As a mark of Dhule’s development, he points to modest projects, such as the Panzara river cleanup as evidence of progress. However, they pale against the backdrop of Dhule’s unfulfilled potential.

For Dhule’s voters, the choice on polling day on November 20 is whether to endorse another experiment in governance or to demand more than rhetoric from those who seek to lead. This time, the call is not just for new promises but for a leadership capable of breaking the cycle of disillusionment and steering Dhule toward the prosperity that has long eluded it.

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