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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Discussions on among allies for govt formation: Ajit Pawar

Updated: Nov 29, 2024

Ajit Pawar

Mumbai: Deputy Chief Minister and NCP head Ajit Pawar on Monday said discussions were underway among the Mahayuti partners to finalise a formula for the new government formation in the state.


Speaking to reporters at Karad in Satara district, Pawar also acknowledged the contribution of the government's Ladki Bahin scheme, which provides financial assistance to women, in the Mahayuti's victory in the just-concluded state assembly polls.


The NCP leader also assured that the alliance was working cohesively following its resounding victory in the state assembly elections.


Pawar paid tributes to Maharashtra's first chief minister Yashwantrao Chavan at his memorial in Karad on his death anniversary.


In the state poll results declared on Saturday, the Mahayuti, which comprises the BJP, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, bagged an impressive 230 of the 288 assembly seats.


The focus has been on BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is being seen as a strong contender to occupy the top post for the third time, as his party bagged 132 of the 149 seats it contested in the state.


Notably, Maharashtra minister and Shiv Sena leader Deepak Kesarkar has said his party legislators feel Eknath Shinde should continue as the chief minister of the state, where the ruling Mahayuti scored a landslide victory in the assembly polls.


Ajit Pawar said, "We will decide what formula to work out on the cabinet formation among the three parties."


Reflecting on the elections, he acknowledged the contribution of the Ladki Bahin scheme in the Mahayuti's win.


"We cannot ignore that Ladki Bahin helped us in this election. We are grateful to them (women voters)," he said.


Defending the scheme, Pawar, who is also the state finance minister, further said, "Had I been opposed to the Ladki Bahin scheme, I would not have presented it in the House. I discussed the scheme with several retired finance officers before finalising it."


Pawar also dismissed concerns raised by some opposition leaders over the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), pointing out that polls in states like Punjab, West Bengal and Telangana, governed by their political opponents, have been conducted with the same system.


Commenting on members of same families contesting against each other during the elections, Pawar expressed annoyance over repeated questions on it.


He then asked, "Why was my close nephew fielded? Atram's own daughter was fielded against him, and even Rajendra Shingne faced a similar challenge. I don't want to comment further on this. I have got tired of apologising for fielding my wife against Supriya. Yugendra was in business, then why was he prepared to contest against me?"


In the Baramati assembly seat, Ajit Pawar was pitted against his nephew and NCP (SP) candidate Yugendra Pawar.


In Aheri seat, NCP leader Dharamraobaba Atram's daughter Bhagyashree Atram contested against him on NCP (SP) ticket.

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