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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Discussions on among allies for govt formation: Ajit Pawar

Updated: Nov 29, 2024

Ajit Pawar

Mumbai: Deputy Chief Minister and NCP head Ajit Pawar on Monday said discussions were underway among the Mahayuti partners to finalise a formula for the new government formation in the state.


Speaking to reporters at Karad in Satara district, Pawar also acknowledged the contribution of the government's Ladki Bahin scheme, which provides financial assistance to women, in the Mahayuti's victory in the just-concluded state assembly polls.


The NCP leader also assured that the alliance was working cohesively following its resounding victory in the state assembly elections.


Pawar paid tributes to Maharashtra's first chief minister Yashwantrao Chavan at his memorial in Karad on his death anniversary.


In the state poll results declared on Saturday, the Mahayuti, which comprises the BJP, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, bagged an impressive 230 of the 288 assembly seats.


The focus has been on BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is being seen as a strong contender to occupy the top post for the third time, as his party bagged 132 of the 149 seats it contested in the state.


Notably, Maharashtra minister and Shiv Sena leader Deepak Kesarkar has said his party legislators feel Eknath Shinde should continue as the chief minister of the state, where the ruling Mahayuti scored a landslide victory in the assembly polls.


Ajit Pawar said, "We will decide what formula to work out on the cabinet formation among the three parties."


Reflecting on the elections, he acknowledged the contribution of the Ladki Bahin scheme in the Mahayuti's win.


"We cannot ignore that Ladki Bahin helped us in this election. We are grateful to them (women voters)," he said.


Defending the scheme, Pawar, who is also the state finance minister, further said, "Had I been opposed to the Ladki Bahin scheme, I would not have presented it in the House. I discussed the scheme with several retired finance officers before finalising it."


Pawar also dismissed concerns raised by some opposition leaders over the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), pointing out that polls in states like Punjab, West Bengal and Telangana, governed by their political opponents, have been conducted with the same system.


Commenting on members of same families contesting against each other during the elections, Pawar expressed annoyance over repeated questions on it.


He then asked, "Why was my close nephew fielded? Atram's own daughter was fielded against him, and even Rajendra Shingne faced a similar challenge. I don't want to comment further on this. I have got tired of apologising for fielding my wife against Supriya. Yugendra was in business, then why was he prepared to contest against me?"


In the Baramati assembly seat, Ajit Pawar was pitted against his nephew and NCP (SP) candidate Yugendra Pawar.


In Aheri seat, NCP leader Dharamraobaba Atram's daughter Bhagyashree Atram contested against him on NCP (SP) ticket.

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