Dissanayake’s Win: A Shift Towards Leftist Politics

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the left-leaning candidate from the National People’s Power (NPP), decisively won against his primary opposition. The new president, a former trade union leader with an anti-elite stance, campaigned on promises of economic equality, greater state control over resources, and curbing foreign debt dependency. His socialist ideology emphasised nationalising key industries, fostering social welfare programmes, and limiting foreign influence—particularly that of Western nations.

The main contenders in this election included Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent president from the United National Party (UNP), and Sajith Premadasa, the leader of the centre-right Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Despite fierce competition, Dissanayake’s promise of economic reform and critique of the 2022 economic crisis resonated with the electorate, who are still reeling from the economic shocks. Voter concerns centred on the unresolved debt crisis, unemployment, inflation, and the high cost of living, which dominated the election discourse.

Sri Lanka’s presidential elections have historically been a battleground for competing ideologies and foreign interests. Since gaining independence in 1948, the country has oscillated between socialist-leaning policies and pro-market, right-wing governance. Presidents like Chandrika Kumaratunga and Mahinda Rajapaksa advocated for greater state control, while more recent leaders, including Ranil Wickremesinghe, sought to liberalise the economy. Behind these political shifts is a geopolitical landscape where India and China vie for influence.

Influence of India and China

India has always been a key player in Sri Lanka, due to its geographical proximity and shared cultural heritage. However, China’s involvement has grown in recent years, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Sri Lanka’s strategically located ports, especially Hambantota, have made this island nation a focal point of China’s maritime ambitions. This dynamic has created a delicate balancing act for previous Sri Lankan presidents, requiring them to navigate the competing interests of these two Asian giants.

Economic Crisis and Survival

The so-called Chinese “debt trap” became a major issue during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency. The country borrowed heavily from China to finance infrastructure projects, including the infamous Hambantota Port. These loans, with high interest rates, quickly became unsustainable.

By 2022, Sri Lanka faced an economic meltdown triggered by a foreign exchange crisis and exacerbated by the global pandemic. The country defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in its history, leading to severe shortages of essential goods, widespread protests, and the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Sri Lanka managed to recover through a combination of International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance, temporary relief from creditors, and austerity measures. Yet, the scars of that crisis remain, and the recent election has highlighted lingering discontent among the population, especially over the perception that foreign influence was a key contributor to the economic collapse.

Impact on Indo-Lankan Relations

The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake could significantly alter Indo-Lankan relations. India, which had strengthened ties with the previous government through economic support and strategic collaborations, may now face renewed competition from China. With Dissanayake’s commitment to reducing reliance on Western and multilateral institutions like the IMF, there are growing concerns that he may lean heavily on China for future financial and infrastructure support. This shift could reintroduce the risks of economic entanglement and sovereignty loss that Sri Lanka faced under the previous Rajapaksa administration.

From India’s perspective, the recent election has created new diplomatic challenges, coinciding with increasing hostility from most other neighbouring countries like Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Once seen as a potential ally, Sri Lanka may now tilt towards Chinese influence, leaving India diplomatically isolated in the region, with Bhutan remaining its only ally. Given the current situation, it is crucial for the Government of India to focus more on its neighbours. An India surrounded by hostile neighbours will always be at risk, and these risks will escalate as India becomes stronger economically and militarily.

Cautious Optimism for the Future

While it’s too early to make definitive judgements on the trajectory of Sri Lanka’s foreign and domestic policies under the new president, signs indicate Sri Lanka may be heading towards another phase of Chinese influence. However, given the disastrous consequences of previous involvement in China’s debt trap, the new government should tread carefully.

India, for its part, must remain watchful and proactive and continue to focus on diplomatic engagement, economic assistance, and strengthening cultural ties with Sri Lanka to counterbalance China’s financial allure. At the same time, India must recognise the changing political winds and prepare for a future where its neighbours may not always be aligned with its strategic goals. The outcome of this election serves as a reminder that regional stability is fragile, and India’s role in South Asia has never been more crucial.

As Sri Lanka embarks on this new political chapter, the world is watching it closely and cautiously.

(The writer is an IT professional. Views personal.)