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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Do You See What I See?

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Art is both a mirror and a storyteller, demanding a discerning eye to unwrap its myriad layers of meaning.

Art
Raja Balwant Singh’s Vision of Krishna and Radha by Nainsukh. Jasrota, c. 1745-1750. Metropolitan Museum of Art

Figurative art, be it a portrait, landscape, still life, scene of war or a moment of daily living, is typically a more comprehensible subject for most people. If you can point to it and say whether it is a person, place or thing, you feel like you know what you’re seeing. You may find it beautiful or ugly, intriguing or pointless, but you feel you know what it is. But do you, really?


Looking at a work of art is not the same as seeing it. Both are essential in order to appreciate the layers and nuances that constitute its entirety. You might walk through a gallery or museum, and stop to linger at just a few pieces. There may be a time when you return, a bit more circumspect, to really look at a particular work. Something may have caught your attention, drawn you to it. Often this is the power of familiarity. Millions flock to catch a glimpse of the Mona Lisa in the Louvre. It may be a surprise to see how small the actual Dancing Girl of Mohenjodaro in The National Museum in New Delhi is, after having leafed through her image in so many books. A viewing of Norwegian artist Edvard Munch’s The Scream may explain a popular emoji.


The oldest known figurative cave art depicting people, animals, and outlines of human hands, was recently discovered in Sulawesi, Indonesia and dates back 51,200 years to the Paleolithic era. 40,000 to 14,000 year old art in the Lascaux and Altamira caves in France and Spain, and Bhimbetka rock shelters in Madhya Pradesh similarly depict animals and hunting scenes, with some strikingly sophisticated drawings of horses and boar. Adhi Agus Oktaviana, an Indonesian rock art specialist has been quoted to say, “Humans have probably been telling stories for much longer than 51,200 years, but as words do not fossilize we can only go by indirect proxies like depictions of scenes in art.”


One could argue that all art is a form of story-telling. Even when unintentional, it offers a narrative on the society from which it is born, and in modern times, has been used as a medium to make deliberate social, political, or personal statements. Traditional art across India whether it is Warli or Gond painting springs from the tradition of story-telling through specific and particular symbols and techniques which form their own self-contained language. These living traditions are now seen replicated on everything from trays to fabrics, becoming easily recognisable for their stylistic elements, but devoid of meaning when separated from their deep cultural rooting.


As societies evolved, art came to depict gods and kings, mythology and religion, court and country life, in addition to nature, built forms, and people. Stone and bronze sculptures and paintings of gods and goddesses in many parts of the world, and frescoes of saints in Medieval European churches, for example, have known typologies. But a work of art can also be appreciated just at face value. Even if you had never heard of Christianity, The Pietà, created by Michelangelo in the late 1400s, may awe or move you to tears, for the sheer expressive beauty with which the figures have been carved out of marble, to the point where it seems like they could breathe. Or closer to home, a Kangra miniature of Raja Balwant Singh’s Vision of Krishna and Radha (attributed to Nainsukh and family) can entice someone with its minimalist composition, while someone else may marvel at the intricate designs of the textiles. Yet another may be in awe of the jewellery and gems on the throne. An architect may focus on the marble inlay of the walls or the flattened perspective. Connoisseurs may read historians such as Jagdish Mittal or B.N. Goswami’s scholarly writings, which put all the sociological, mythological, religious and narrative elements together in texts replete with poetry as well as prose. Contemporary artists such as Waswo x Waswo and Shahzia Sikander have incorporated and transformed the Miniature genre itself into their own practices. When one takes the time to really look and see all the many layers that make up this singular ink, watercolour, and gold drawing on paper, the richness of information vastly exceeds the ‘mere beauty’ of the art. You may find yourself transported back in time, not just to the realm of its themes but to the moment when the artist(s) created this work. The artist, whether an anonymous Cro-Magnon or a renowned entity, is resurrected every time their art finds resonance with a viewer.


The hallmark of a true work of art lies in its ability to elicit a response, and engage over a period of time that outlives not only the artist but also the age when it was made. Depending on who is seeing it, when and where, in what state of mind, with what background information, a work of art can delight (M.F. Husain’s toys), confound (Cubism), or shock (Salvador Dali).


So, the relevant question isn’t whether you see what someone else sees. What matters is whether you allow yourself the time and space to see what you see.


(The writer is an architect, author, editor, and artist. Her column meanders through the vibrant world of art, examining exhibitions, offering critiques, delving into theory and exploring everything in between and beyond.)

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