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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Drowning in Liquor

Updated: Mar 12, 2025


Bhupesh Baghel
Bhupesh Baghel

The spectre of corruption has once again cast a long shadow over the Opposition Congress in Chhatisgarh after the Enforcement Directorate (ED) raided the Bhilai residence of former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, searching for evidence in a money laundering case linked to an alleged liquor scam. The agency’s primary target was Baghel’s son, Chaitanya, who is accused of receiving illicit proceeds from a syndicate that allegedly siphoned off Rs. 2,161 crore.


The raids, which extended to 14 locations, also covered premises linked to Laxmi Narayan Bansal, a close associate of Chaitanya Baghel. The ED alleges that during Baghel’s tenure from 2018 to 2023, an elaborate liquor syndicate flourished in Chhattisgarh. According to investigators, a nexus of politicians, bureaucrats, and businessmen illegally controlled liquor sales, skimming off thousands of crores from the state’s excise revenue.


The probe has already ensnared senior Congress figures, including former excise minister Kawasi Lakhma, ex-IAS officer Anil Tuteja, and Arvind Singh. Assets worth Rs. 205 crore have been attached, and investigators claim they have evidence linking Chaitanya Baghel to the proceeds of the scheme.


Predictably, Baghel and the Congress are crying foul. The former chief minister, who was recently appointed Congress general secretary in charge of Punjab, called the raids politically motivated, an attempt by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to silence him. He alleges that ED officials seized Rs. 33 lakh in accounted-for cash and documents exposing corruption by BJP leaders. Congress leaders, including Sachin Pilot, have also accused the BJP of weaponizing central agencies to target political rivals, pointing to the timing of the raids as proof of vendetta politics.


Parties within the opposition INDIA bloc have long accused the Modi government of misusing agencies like the ED and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to weaken the opposition. In recent months, this narrative has gained traction as multiple senior opposition figures – ex-Delhi CM and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, Jharkhand CM and JMM chief Hemant Soren and now Baghel - have found themselves in the ED’s crosshairs. After Kejriwal, Baghel is the second former CM to be embroiled in a liquor scam.


Rather than addressing the allegations, Baghel has chosen to deflect. His office released a statement implying that the raids were an attempt to derail his new role as Congress’s Punjab in-charge. His party, as if on cue, rushed to label the ED’s action as a case of political vendetta on part of the ruling BJP. With its national credibility at rock-bottom, if the Congress were serious about fighting corruption in Chhattisgarh, then it ought support a full-fledged probe rather than resort to street protests and Assembly disruptions.


Yet, even if the crackdown has political motivations, the deeper problem for the opposition is that these allegations are sticking. The liquor scam accusations against Kejriwal’s AAP have already eroded its anti-corruption plank, which stand in tatters after the party’s defeat in the Delhi Assembly polls. Kejriwal’s refusal to directly answer ED summons and his constant attempts to paint himself as a victim ultimately came a cropper. The AAP narrative of being unfairly targeted cut no ice with Delhi’s electorate when placed alongside the overwhelming evidence of manipulated excise policies and financial irregularities.


Now, the same allegations against a key Congress leader further tarnish the INDIA bloc’s image. If the opposition is to take on the BJP effectively, it must not only counter these cases politically but also demonstrate that it is not tainted by the very corruption it seeks to fight.


Baghel’s fate now hangs in the balance. If the ED gathers further evidence linking him or his son to illicit dealings, his political future and the Congress’s standing in Chhattisgarh could be in jeopardy. Voters expect accountability, and if the ED’s investigation into Chhattisgarh’s liquor scam ensures that stolen public money is recovered, it will only reinforce the BJP’s image as the party serious about cleaning up the system.

 

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