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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Drugs, Demolitions and Development Dilemmas

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

Nashik

In the countdown to the November 20 Assembly polls, Nashik, a city once epitomizing tranquillity and spirituality, its revered religious ties to the Ramayana, is now embroiled in a contentious election season. Known as the ‘cultural heart’ of North Maharashtra, the Assembly segments in Nashik are caught up in controversial flashpoints, namely a surging drug menace, a bitter political feud between two former allies, and a high-profile demolition.


The drug problem first cast a shadow over Nashik last year, when Mumbai Police uncovered a massive operation led by Lalit Patil, a local businessman, involving mephedrone worth over Rs 300 crore. This discovery - which followed a long trail across vital Maharashtra cities including Pune - has since triggered a wave of concern, particularly in the Nashik Central Assembly seat, where rising drug abuse among youth and even children has become an alarming reality.


BJP MLA Devyani Pharande, seeking re-election as the ruling Mahayuti’s candidate, has positioned herself as an advocate for curbing the menace, while her rival, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Vasant Gite, has accused her of complicity, alleging that she used her political clout to shield drug peddlers.


While Pharande vehemently denies these allegations, the drug issue has resonated deeply with voters. This already charged atmosphere took another twist with the demolition of Gite’s office, which was razed by authorities soon after the Shiv Sena (UBT) took a slim lead in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year.


Gite, once the mainstay of Raj Thackeray’s MNS in Nashik, claims the demolition was orchestrated by Pharande and the BJP, accusing her of using her political power to target him. In return, Pharande has hit back at Gite for his alleged involvement in illegal alcohol sales from his office. The escalating tensions between the two have made the contest here not just about governance, but about personal rivalries and vendettas.


Gite, who once served as Mayor under Shiv Sena, has significant support within the minority community, having previously won elections unopposed from a Muslim-majority ward. Pharande, on the other hand, relies on the organizational strength of the BJP and her connections to the electorate through her tenure as Deputy Mayor of the Nashik Municipal Corporation.


The underlying issues of urban development and infrastructure remain a key concern. In the Nashik West Assembly segment, home to two major industrial estates, the lack of progress on infrastructure, particularly roads and drainage, has stunted economic growth. Despite promises from both the state and central BJP governments to develop the region, industries are struggling to survive.


The constituency is shaping up to be a tight race between the incumbent BJP MLA Seema Hiray, her challenger Dinkar Patil from MNS and the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Sudhakar Badgujar, who is the MVA candidate.


Hiray is facing significant criticism for her failure to address these infrastructural challenges, despite having served two terms in office.


In this context, the MNS led by Raj Thackeray, is attempting to regain Nashik with its manifesto proposing its ‘Nashik model of development’ as the party once held the trump card in the Nashik Municipal Corporation.


With promises ranging from decentralization of industries to the creation of affordable housing and new recreational spaces, the MNS aims to present a fresh alternative to the existing political leadership.


As the countdown to Election Day accelerates, the looming question for voters is whether any candidate can rise above the noise of personal vendettas and factionalism to address the real challenges facing this once-peaceful city.

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