Eknath Shinde’s Vanishing Act

Once a kingmaker, now a bystander, Maharashtra’s Deputy CM finds himself at a perilous crossroads.

Politics is rarely about gratitude. In Maharashtra, few embody this reality more than Eknath Shinde. Just two years ago, he was the rebel leader who toppled Uddhav Thackeray’s government, cleaving the Shiv Sena in two and ensuring the BJP’s return to power. Today, Shinde, now relegated to the state’s Deputy Chief Minister post, finds himself increasingly isolated, ignored in key decisions, denied political appointments, and sidelined in his own government. Has Shinde outlived his usefulness?

The Mahayuti coalition was formed on the promise of stability and power-sharing. But reality has played out differently. As the BJP tightens its grip on the state, Shinde’s camp appears to be the first casualty of its consolidation.

Recent events provide ample proof of his dwindling influence. At a crucial meeting of the Raigad District Planning and Development Council (DPDC), neither Shinde nor his party’s MLAs were invited. Instead, Ajit Pawar, the state’s other Deputy CM and the head of the rival NCP faction, presided over the meeting, with only his allies in attendance. It was a clear signal of who calls the shots.

Similar signs of Shinde’s diminishing clout are everywhere. Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, a key Shiv Sena (Shinde) leader, was blindsided by the government’s decision to bypass him in appointing the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation’s chairman. Traditionally a Shiv Sena-controlled post, it was handed instead to IAS officer Sanjay Sethi. Senior leader Uday Samant was forced to write to bureaucrats demanding that his department be consulted on policy decisions.

Adding to the insult, Shinde was conspicuously left out of the State Disaster Management Authority, while his counterpart, Ajit Pawar, was included. It was only after an outcry that Shinde was belatedly added. But the damage was done.

These slights are not accidental. They reflect a calculated political move by the BJP, which is seeking to neutralize its allies ahead of upcoming local body elections. The Mahayuti alliance swept the last assembly elections winning over 230 of the 288 seats, but as BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis works to consolidate power, it is becoming evident that not all partners are equal.

Ajit Pawar’s NCP, despite being a junior partner, is faring much better. The only major setback it has suffered - Dhananjay Munde’s resignation - was quickly contained. Unlike Shinde’s faction, Pawar’s party is seen as having deeper grassroots support and an independent political identity, making it a more valuable ally.

Shinde, in contrast, is a liability-in-waiting. His power stemmed from the BJP’s support, and now that the party is secure in Maharashtra, his utility is diminishing. Worse, his Shiv Sena faction lacks a distinct ideological identity. Unlike the original Shiv Sena, which commanded a powerful Hindutva vote bank under Bal Thackeray and, later, Uddhav, Shinde’s version is seen as a pale imitation. The BJP knows that if necessary, it can absorb his MLAs, rendering his party redundant.

As Shinde struggles for relevance, a new twist has emerged. Sharad Pawar, the wily veteran of Maharashtra politics, recently honoured Shinde at a public event, praising his leadership and hinting at a possible realignment. The move has unsettled both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

For the Shiv Sena (UBT), this was a betrayal. Sanjay Raut, Uddhav Thackeray’s close aide, was quick to lash out at Pawar, accusing him of legitimizing a “traitor.” His frustration is understandable. The MVA is already weakened by internal rifts, and Pawar’s outreach to Shinde only deepens the uncertainty surrounding the opposition’s unity.

For Shinde, however, the felicitation was a lifeline, a reminder that if his current alliance turns untenable, he might have alternatives. But aligning with Pawar is easier said than done. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) is already in turmoil, and its uneasy equation with the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) complicates any potential realignment.

Shinde’s predicament boils down to a simple truth: in politics, survival depends on either power or nuisance value. Right now, he has neither.

His Shiv Sena faction, once seen as a key player in Maharashtra’s power dynamics, is fading into irrelevance. Key ministers like Dada Bhuse, Gulabrao Patil and Bharat Gogawale are being kept out of decision-making, and murmurs within the party suggest growing dissatisfaction. The BJP, while not openly pushing him out, is making it clear that his role is diminishing.

If Shinde wants to remain politically relevant, he will have to fight for his space within the Mahayuti government. This would mean aggressively demanding greater representation, key portfolios and a stronger say in decision-making. But given the BJP’s current trajectory, this seems unlikely to yield results. Conversely, he could negotiate a deal with Sharad Pawar. This would require careful manoeuvring, as it risks alienating his existing base. Else, as an extreme option, he could go it alone.

A high-stakes gamble, this would mean reviving his independent Shiv Sena identity, taking an adversarial position against both the BJP and Uddhav’s camp. Given the lack of a clear ideological base, this would be the riskiest move.

One thing is clear that doing nothing is not an option. The local body elections later this year, particularly the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls, will be a test of strength for every faction in Maharashtra politics. If Shinde cannot assert himself before then, his party risks drifting into political oblivion by the time the next assembly election comes around.

(The author is a political observer. Views personal.)