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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Faith Management

If Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis manages to pull off the 2027 Simhastha Kumbh Mela in Nashik without incident, he may well find himself showered with a peculiar kind of glory: not merely as a competent organiser, but as a ‘better’ strategist than Uttar Pradesh’s saffron-clad strongman, CM Yogi Adityanath.


That, on the face of it, is a bold claim. Adityanath presides over India’s most populous state and has successfully positioned himself as a Hindutva icon-in-chief. His management of the 2019 Prayagraj Kumbh which drew over 240 million people was hailed as a logistical triumph. This year’s Mahakumbh was even grander, being attended by a staggering 660 million visitors and marking a high point in Yogi’s trajectory. And yet, the 2025 Mahakumbh suffered a blemish in form of a deadly stampede which resulted in at least 30 deaths, casting a shadow on an otherwise flawless management of an event which was studied even by global researchers.


Fadnavis has begun his journey towards 2027 Nashik Kumbh with meticulous calculation and a quiet sense of command. The Nashik Kumbh which occurs once every 12 years is no mean event. Split between the Vaishnav gathering at Ramkunda and the Shaiva rites at Trimbakeshwar, it will span months in 2027. With the potential to draw tens of millions of pilgrims, it will test Maharashtra’s civic infrastructure to its limits.


That Fadnavis has already laid out a roadmap nearly two years in advance is telling. In Nashik, he met with seers of both sects, the powerful heads of all 13 Akharas. The grand opening ceremony is set for October 31, 2026.


More significantly, the numbers behind the scenes suggest Fadnavis is playing a longer game. Over Rs. 4,000 crore worth of tenders for infrastructure have already been processed. Nashik’s municipal plans for clean water and sanitation are ambitious and well-timed. A dedicated Rs. 2,000 crore-budget for keeping the Godavari River clean, notoriously polluted in the past, is a pointed nod to environmental stewardship.


This is not merely bureaucratic box-ticking. Fadnavis appears to be rebranding himself as no longer just the BJP’s dependable technocrat in western India, but a man capable of managing scale, sentiment and symbolism in equal measure.


There is still ample time for things to go awry. The history of Kumbh Melas is peppered with tragic footnotes. A mismanaged crowd surge, a missed infrastructure deadline or an outbreak of disease could upend the best-laid plans. Yet should Fadnavis succeed in staging a seamless Kumbh in Nashik, it would certainly be met with thumping approval from the BJP high command.


The Nashik Kumbh will not only be a test of logistics but a referendum on political agility. In the shadow of the larger-than-life Yogi, Fadnavis has often seemed the quieter partner in the top saffron echelon. But if the Simhastha unfolds without mishap, he may well emerge with a reputation for competence and strategic timing that surpasses Yogi’s in the crowded pantheon of the BJP’s rising stars.

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