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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

From PVC to LDPE: The Plastics Hidden in Everyday Life

From packaging to household goods, RIC 3 and 4 plastics are everywhere. Learn how to identify them at a glance.

In my previous article, we explored the first two Resin Identification Codes—RIC 1 (PET), commonly used in beverage and food containers, and RIC 2 (HDPE), found in sturdy household bottles and a wide range of utility products. Both plastics are among the easiest to recycle, making them central to responsible waste management and to the broader shift towards more sustainable patterns of consumption. With this foundation in place and a clearer understanding of how these codes guide our daily choices, let us now move on to the remaining classifications in the Resin Identification System and understand what each one signifies.


Code 3: PVC

Code 3 refers to products made from polyvinyl chloride, or PVC—a remarkably versatile and inexpensive plastic valued for its durability, water resistance, and excellent electrical insulation. As the world’s third most produced plastic, PVC is manufactured in both rigid and flexible forms, each designed to meet a wide array of everyday needs. Flexible PVC, produced using plasticisers, appears in raincoats, boots, shower curtains, handbags, and imitation leather upholstery. It is also used in bottles for non-food items such as shampoos and cosmetics, in clear blister packaging for medicines, and in cling film that helps preserve the freshness and quality of food.


Rigid PVC, prized for its strength and longevity, is used to manufacture credit cards, debit cards, national identity cards, and various inflatable items—from pool toys and floats to air mattresses. It is also present in yoga mats, sports equipment, and numerous DIY and craft materials that require durability and ease of handling.


One of the most significant industrial uses of PVC is in piping. Rigid PVC pipes have increasingly replaced metal pipes in water supply, sewage, and drainage systems due to their resistance to corrosion, leakage, and environmental wear. Unplasticised PVC (uPVC) is widely used for window and door frames, offering excellent insulation, weather resistance, and minimal maintenance requirements. Vinyl flooring—produced as tiles, sheets, or planks—is another major PVC-based product, valued in homes, offices, and hospitals for its durability, affordability, and ease of cleaning. PVC’s strong insulating properties also make it ideal for coating electrical wires and cables, while PVC membranes and siding provide long-lasting, weather-resistant coverings for roofs and exterior walls.


Although PVC can be recycled, the process is considerably more complex than with many other plastics. The numerous additives used to improve its flexibility, strength, and stability often interfere with the recycling process and can reduce the quality of the recycled material, limiting its suitability for certain applications.


Code 4: LDPE

Code 4 identifies products made from low-density polyethylene, or LDPE—one of the most widely used plastics thanks to its lightness, flexibility, and overall durability. LDPE is commonly found in stretchable grocery bags, shopping bags, and general-purpose garbage bags. It is also extensively used in milk pouches, bread and frozen-food packaging, cling film, snack and toiletry pouches, and other everyday wrapping materials. Many squeeze bottles for glue, paints, condiments, and household liquids are made from LDPE, as are numerous lids and caps. Additionally, LDPE forms the waterproof inner lining of juice and milk cartons, helping protect the contents and extend shelf life.


Beyond packaging, LDPE serves as a protective coating in various products, appears in trash-can liners, and is widely used in children’s toys such as buckets and play balls due to its resilience and safety profile. Some household goods—including certain cutting boards—are also manufactured from LDPE, benefiting from its strength and ease of cleaning.


Despite its versatility and widespread use, LDPE poses notable challenges for recycling. Rigid LDPE products are somewhat easier to process, but thin bags, wraps, and cling films are difficult to collect, separate, and recycle efficiently. As a result, a significant proportion of these items unfortunately ends up in landfill.


Our discussion will continue in next week’s instalment, where we will explore the remaining Resin Identification Codes in greater depth and understand how they influence recycling practices. Until then, I wish you a pleasant and enjoyable weekend.


 (The author is an environmentalist. Views personal.)


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